1/2 NL, hour into session, 9 handed.

Villain ($325, UTG +1): Villain used to be a legitimate maniac. Out of the middle of no where, over the last couple of months villain has played relatively tight, some days playing super aggressive, other days pretty passively. So far today villain has been playing pretty TAG. Villain has raised pre to $20 every single time, regardless of position or if there are limpers or not. Villain has shown down JJ, KJs, and AQo for his raises, all which were from EP. Villain is a little bit of a station as well.

Hero ($325, CO): Hero has a TAG image. Hero and villain have played together ~200 hours, with ~175 hours coming when villain was a complete maniac. Hero hasn't shown any hands down yet.

OTTH

Villain opens $20 and only hero calls with T T.

Flop ($43): A Q T. Villain c bets $15, hero raises to $65 and villain calls.

Turn ($173): 5. Villain checks and hero shoves for $240.


Thoughts?

I'm okay with it as an aggro type line. Might be easier to get worse to come along if you bet 2/3 pot on the turn unless villain is returning to his degen ways.

You're not beat by much that would open, and there's a chance you're getting a crying call from AK or AQ.

Getting setted is possible, but not much you can do there.

Small donk bet on this type of flop is usually a marginal hand or draw. Congrats on chasing it away with your overbet. Of course, you didn't win enough to cover all the times you'd have to fold on the flop.

I don’t really get what you’re getting at here. Are you saying fold pre is better?
I’ve seen you make this same comment in other threads as well.
We can’t know what the flop is until we pay to see the flop and thus we can’t really know how likely we are to get paid ‘our proper odds for calling all of our hands pre’. This really seems like a strange and detached way of analyzing HH’s.
From Hero’s description of V, he has opened 66.67% of hands that we are better than 50% against, and he has raised them all to $20 (10bb).
If we aren’t playing this hand over 150bb deep in position against this V, why are we even playing?

What are you actually trying to say, is my real question?

That wasn't a flop lead, that was a c-bet.

How do we know for sure that villain has a marginal made hand or draw? I didn't post results, so for the sake of the thread it's unknown whether villain called or folded to my turn shove.

I like it. Though I'm inclined to 3bet pre.

3 betting a 10x open from a guy appearing to play TAG when he opens from EP seems like a bad idea with TT.

3-bet Pre is kind of meh to me. It puts us in an awkward spot when overcards come in a bloated pot, and we find ourselves committed pretty quickly with a single bet. Obviously its not bad to 3-bet either, but given the size of the initial raise I don't think it mandatory. I don't mind calling and playing in position with a made hand.

Flop raise is good. We should charge all the Broadway pair+draws he has in his range, and even if he flops a straight its likely he just calls fearing a flush. Turn overbet shove is a little optimistic. Exactly what is he calling with that we beat? AQ - maybe AK with K hearts. I prefer a bet to $120 that will likely commit him with any A that he calls and ship all rivers.

I like it.

I don't think turn is that much of an overbet, and I think say betting 80 on the turn (setting up to shove river), just let's him see river cheaper if it blanks, when he'll likely call your turn shove with something like AK or KhQx.

With an awkward stack, I'd go $120 on turn, rest on a brick river. If V has 12 outs, call is not getting the correct price. Shove may get a fold.

I don't like a size other than all in on the turn, because if we go too small we're giving him great odds on a draw, and anything bigger has zero fold equity, so we literally have no bluffs here if we take that line.

The trouble is, we are getting like more than 5-1 if he shoves river. There are different degrees of scare cards. JH probably scariest, but say non heart King comes and he shoves, we always folding for these odds?

Us oldie Bridge players have a saying which is often (though not always true) - "Always make your opponent make the tough last decision"

Ah yeah, 10x, you're right. I'll probably call then too. However, I'm not sure I would be able to suddenly see a guy like this as TAG. Do people really change their playing style this drastically? Maybe some do, but I would have real difficulties buying it, I know that much.

I stand corrected. Doesn't change that he likely has a marginal hand. If he had a monster, he'd check, not bet. If he completely missed, he'd either try to push you off your draw with a bigger bet or x/f.

There are really only 2 reasons to call a bet or raise. The first is that you are trapping a villain. That's the basis of the l/rr pf with AA. The second is that you figure you are behind, but can catch up on a later street and earn enough to justify adding money to the pot when behind. Mediocre players add a third reason, which is they can't decide if they are ahead or behind, but hate the idea they could have folded a potential winning hand.

In this case, hero is getting over 15:1 draw for a set pf, along with a chance to actually having the best hand unimproved on the flop, so it is a good reason to call.

Hero hits his set on the flop, but on an ugly board. Not much worse than what Hero has can even call a turn shove. So shoving folds out worse hands while the better hands will call. Not a good play.

No, I wouldn't fold if a black king hit.

Betting 1/2 of remaining stack offers 2.4-1 odds. Pr/combo draws need >3-1.

That said, if villain has reverted back to gambly play, shove is fine. Doesn't appear to in op, besides Hero has a tight image.

So do we just have zero bluffs here then?

I see your point. But I guess I’m wondering what bluffs H has here with this board texture and V’s range, which seems kinda condensed after the flop action.

Normally V’s downbet is kind of a blocker. But a clever V might downbet the nuts here to induce aggression. So even if we decide he’s condensed to a combo draw, we’re offering him 2-1 on a jam so I guess it’s not a great spot for a bluff after the flop action. In the abstract, we’re supposed to have some bluffs but not here, not now.

Given your image, I like a 3-bet preflop.

As played, I'd bet $125 on the turn. Let him talk himself into a call on the turn, then talk himself into calling a brick river with his one-pair hands.

The problem is, given your image, your shove looks super-nutted. It looks like you called with suited hearts/KJ/1010, flopped great, and are now trying to chase out the draws you're vulnerable against. And that's exactly what you *are* doing. So you're inviting him to correctly read your hand and respond by correctly folding, and you're charging a huge price that makes his decision easier.

Looks fine. Very few flush combos in his range and if he had a better set, he likely would have 3! flop. His most likely holding is AxK.

Results?

Villain called with A J

I think that and AxKh are the only two hands that would call that you beat here, against this V.

AQ/AT/QT?

^i dunno. Maybe the AQ. AT and QT might be optimistic, unless this guy still really hasn’t changed his prior playing. QT is an idiotic call here.