UTG(MAWG /w $195) open to $12, I call AcQc($200) UTG +2, everyone else folds.
Flop $23(after rake)
Qs6s4h
He cbets $15, I call.
(putting his range on AK,AQ/KQ/QJ,AA-77,FD's maybe a few 78s type hands
Pot $53
Turn 8d
He bets $40. His range is probably the same as above IMO. I call.
Pot $133
Riv 7c
He bets $40 again, so now his range is more polarized as move live recs arent capable of thin valuebets /w Qx here on a 4 straight, which means he probably isnt betting AA/KK right?

After he bet $40 on the river and i started tanking he shifted around in his seat when i looked at him and tried to engage in casual convo with the guy next to him and forced a smile, not a genuine smile when he saw me staring at him...what does this mean to you?
I'll share the results after some discussion.

His behavior doesn't matter. This will probably be your worst call down hand. Don't bluff it, don't fold it facing a small bet.

Yeah, river seems like a cry-call.

I would snap call, if he has AA/KK good for him, be happy he didn't make you lose more $ in this hand.

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This is a spot where it's important to have some idea of villain's raising vs. limping range. Is he capable of raising 22-66 and SCs in EP? Some players are, most aren't. If he's incapable of raising those hands, he never has a set here (unless he luckboxed 88 OTT). There's 1 combos of QQ he could have.

If he's capable of raising smaller pocket pairs and SCs I think you're crushed. Otherwise there's not much he can have here. Exactly 1 combo QQ and 3 combos 88 make sorta-sense here.

The tiny river bet is odd. It might be a blocking bet with like KQ. Could be A5s that he just C-bet and then bet again when he picked up a gutshot. I can't see any other likely straights if he's the type to limp SCs. I'm definitely calling here if your ranges are even close to correct.

MAWG generally don't raise pf with SC in the UTG without a read. Is the villain often entering the pot with a raise? If he is typical, he's not raising without a monster, QQ+, AK.

If so, I'm going to guess he has KK. He bet hard on the flop and turn to make a draw pay, then slowed down because he's worried about some two pair or set.

The hand plays itself from the flop onward. The only question is whether the initial call pf was correct. If you believe he'd raise KTs pf in the UTG position, it was a good call. Otherwise, the mistake in the hand is calling pf.

You don't give any weight towards live players body language at all?

It was fairly early in my session, only a couple of orbits had passed and he played a couple other hands. Raised one, called a raise in another. My first impression of him was he's a tourney rec/reg starting out.
The ranges I gave him may be a tad wide with the SC's, but I think they are fairly close. I do not think he's the type to raise with small PP UTG.

Im curious with your comment about preflop possibly being a mistake, as preflop is an area im trying to focus more on because its where potential big mistakes begin.
So if he raises KQo/KJs/88-JJ type hands from UTG calling here is ok, but if he isn't then you're saying calling preflop is bad because a lot of MAWG UTG raising range is only QQ+/AK?

I don't know why but KK and AA slipped my mind. So...counting combos again. There's six combos of KK he could have. But 3 combos AA. One combo QQ. Three combos 88 but these are less likely as he might not C-bet them.

So we're behind 10 to 13 combos. We tie 6 combos AQ. We beat 8 combos KQ. Slight chance he has 99-JJ (27 combos) and just doesn't believe you have a Q for some reason--let's call that 2 combos. It's unlikely he'd raise anything else you beat like QJ or QT, though some will raise these if suited--let's call these 2 combos.

So...I figure we're behind 10 to 13 combos, tie 6 combos, and are ahead of maybe 8 to 12 combos.

The way the hand was played looks like AA or KK slowing down after the straight draws got in. But a blocking bet with KQ is possible. Given the really good pot odds and range assumptions you should call.

Ranging this guy is really important, and it needs to be done pre-flop. If he is the type to just raise {QQ+,AK} then you're crushed post-flop unless the guy is capable of triple barreling AK here (not likely). And you're crushed pre-flop. I'd definitely fold AQo and if he's really that tight then AQs also, though AQs is considerably better than AQo IMO.

But if your range is close to accurate then calling is fine.

I wonder if this would be a good spot to minraise the turn. If he comes over the top you can fold, otherwise he'll probably flat and then check the river. Might even fold if you're not very bluffy as a turn raise looks like a straight or at least 2p, and his most likely hands are one pairs (AA, KK). This freeze play isn't something I've done much so I don't know if it would work here or not.

I think this is a call, but not a snap and not happy about it. I don't think raising will get him to fold AA/KK or a set, so don't see the point. Just call and pray.

For $40 into $173 here I'd snap call. Definitely good often enough to call. Don't love it but not afraid at all of straight. Set? Maybe, very few 2p. Not going to get better to fold so Chuck $40 in an stack or whine and move on to next hand.

Chop is also a somewhat likely outcome.