Hi,
Hero 30s white male with tight image
V 30s white male, about an hour ago moved from 2/4 table, so far played tight, haven't seen him in any big action or any showdown

Hero AcKd (350$)
V1 - CO (270$)


BTN straddle 4$, Hero UTG 14, 2calls, CO call, BTN call

Flop 5sKc8c (70$)

Hero bet 47$, 2folds, CO calls, BTN folds

T 5sKc8c 3c (165)

Hero ch, CO bets 85 (125 behind), Hero ?

After he calls flop I give him range of
KJs+, 76s, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 8c7c, KQo
which result in 10 combos of TP, 7FD, 3OESD and lets sa 1-2 combos of sets, which he would decide to slow play.

@T, as we have redraw to NF and I don't want to be throw out I prefer to play ch/c and let him make mistake of giving me good odds to continue. When betting I'm commiting myself and throwing off most weaker hands he has.

After his turn bet I think it's fair to range him for flushs + maybe 2 combos of OESD and 1TP as I havent saw him bluffing and don't see much sense of betting TP here. I have 25% odds for call, so quite good, but when I hit my club anyway I have to play ch @R as there is small chance he will call me then (maybe KxQc) and if he bets again I'm kind commited and I dont like my spot...

any thoughts?

You have a super good hand, TPTK with a nut flush redraw. Your evidence that CO has anything very good is slim. He can easily just have top pair here. He's betting because you checked and because he doesn't want a fourth club to peel off. Admittedly he should put you on something decent here for your flop bet into 4 opponents, but a lot of LLSNL players are terrible at hand reading. They just play their cards. That includes a lot of the nitty ones.

The absolute worst case scenario if you call is that he has a flush, in which case you will lose about $32 on the call. OTOH, if you fold and he just had top pair, you will lose like $300.

Also, it's a fallacy to be like "I don't want to call here because I'll be kind of committed OTR and that will suck". If you're considering calling on the river, then it's because you think making the call is EV-neutral. If the call on the river is losing you money, don't call! Wanting to avoid that spot is just pain-avoidance, not wanting to be in the position of having to make a difficult decision. Don't confuse that with actually losing money.

^ ya this

call as played

Call the turn. Check/decide river if it's not a club. Of course, if it is a club, you aren't getting any more money.

I'm actually tempted to shove the turn vs. a tight player who obviously doesn't have the nuts, or I might shove river regardless of card. Just depends on how tight he is and whether he's ready to re-load.

I think calling is the only reasonable option as it is WA/WB situation. I don't see what c/shoving turn accomplishes and we can't fold given that we've underrepped our hand with our line. I like the hand as played to this point.

I would have sized higher on the flop because it is wet with multiple draws. Bet $55-$60 on this street instead of $47.

As others have said, the call on the turn as is is slightly -EV assuming you don't get another $ of profit from V. However, that also assumes his entire range is flushes and I don't think that is the case. In fact, his sizing is sort of weak IMO (1/2 pot), so as Chris said, he might have bet simply because you checked a scary card.

I am also tempted to shove here with the nut blocker/draw AP but I think it is close. Also watch your ranging...you have him holding 3 hands with the 8c which is on the board.

Anybody lead this turn with the nut blocker at these stack sizes or are we too shallow to do that?

$60 on flop, shove turn.

Bet the turn dude.

And make the dealer’s job easier and bet normal amounts like 15 and 45/50 instead of incredibly annoying amounts like 14 and 47.

Shoving turn is basically just turning the TPTK into a bluff. Shoving river isn't a terrible idea, suspicious people might think you check called the turn with the bare Ac and whiffed.

Meh. Vs a calling station it might be OK but I doubt you're stacking him with a worse top pair here and there are ~no river cards you fear, so what's the point? The downside is that if he has a flush, he'll shove, and that will suck.

Checking is good. I think there's some argument for raising the turn if we're always calling rivers, but villain may fold if we jam the river on a 4th club, but that's not usually going to be the case, so I'd just call.

Thanks for all the replies.

About betting patterns, will try to.

About betting the turn, it's a option. I bet 130 to pot 170 and if he shoves there for additional 80 I have odds to call with my redraw.
But if I anyway plan to get rest of my chips in, with ch/c I allow him to bet his KQ (or 76), which he could fold after my check on this scary board.

To get value from Kx and especially KxX.

If he shoves a flush we are priced in.

Betting random amounts is totally fine at 1/2 and who cares if the dealers have to make change. Especially if you are a decent tipper. Maybe if the pot has $200 and you bet $147 it is kind of stupid but do what you want in smaller pots.

AP I am fine with betting or checking. I expect better hands and to some extent semibluff good draws to raise flop. Balancing your check range here is pretty desirable imo and this is a great hand to do it since you have the draw and V can easily value bet worse. KJ kind of doesn't like his hand if you bet but likes it a lot more if you check. Hard to really go wrong on this turn.

Given that you checked it is a super easy call now.

Actually bet whatever amount you want at any time you're the guest and customer in the poker room. They make change to drop down the rake chute almost every hand so I really doubt they care.

I agree with Johnny. We can get value from Kx and massage the pot size in a way where if we get shoved on we have the odds to call.