Villain: mid 40s asian man, very nitty; limp calls sometimes and raises almost never ($450)
Hero: mid 20s asian man; table image is nitty TAG ($300)

Villain opens $16 UTG two fish call hero calls with AK

Flop: AJ3 ($65)

Villain bets $25, both fish fold, hero calls

Turn: 6 ($110)

Villain bets $100

Now let's think about this. Obviously we can rule out 33 or 66 from his range cause he raises almost never. AJ might even be a stretch. So really he's repping AA/JJ or a flush. But hold on, I have the K. Given how rarely he raises I highly doubt he has QT or T9 like some TAGs would UTG. Also is he really nearly potting a set after the flush draw got there on a multi-way flop (he seemed at least semi-competent and aware of relative hand strength when he checked QQ on a Kxx board then bet turn for value).

What I was thinking is that if he doesn't have a set or flush then he has to be *gasp* bluffing! But he's a super nit! Super nits don't bluff, right? If I call I'll have to call any blank river. Of course theoretically I could turn my hand into a bluff and raise to try to fold out AA/JJ if he has those but I don't think I'm deep enough (might actually work if I covered him). Thoughts?

Don't call down nits because you think they are bluffing. Don't try to raise anyone off a set, especially a nit.

if he is as nitty as you describe him, he really only has AA here, which seems very improbable as you have an A. pretty tough spot.

you are right, you are not deep enough for him to fold AA/JJ, so shoving is only going to get called by a hand that beats you. and I really don't see him potting the turn with AQclubs.

hmmm.... I am either folding or calling for the slim chance that he is bluffing and will shut down on the river as you are repping a medium flush with your call.

can't decide. flip a coin.

first paragraph is excellent analysis imo

i agree trying to fold out AA/JJ is a bad idea, and if you do think his range is super polarized then trying to bluff is not the right play, c/c down is much better because he continues with his bluffs but will fold them if you bluff shove.

i'm still trying to put together a scenario where he empties the clip into 3 villains with nothing, and the bet sizing is scary too.

at a minimum i am calling the turn

You are never deep enough that you can reasonably expect to get a nit to fold top set. They'd have to be a really good nit to fold that. Nits get so few playable hands that they don't like to fold them especially at the 1/2 level where they have seen so many unusual plays from their opponents.

When nits start betting large that's our que to get out. They are nits for a reason. If we do hit our flush on the turn that's a different story. But, we aren't going to get paid off if another club falls, so it seems that there are no implied odds we are getting as well. Smells like A,A to me just by your description of the player. I'm thinking I fold here.

He's a nit. He's not going to pay you much, if at all, if the flush comes in. Having 4 to a flush on a board is going to scare anyone so you won't get paid.

Fold.

This may sound stupid but if he's a super nit who never raises then all of a sudden he raises UTG, huge bells should be going off, I'm probably just going to fold the AKo here pre, his hand is almost face up. QQ+ is his range which has us crushed. Possibly AKs but doubtful.

A is on the flop.

I'd say more like TT+ AK/AQs. Also I had position on two fish which was very important.

So based on the replies it seems like raising is bad since he's never folding a set. I guess I could call down since his line just doesn't make sense based on his range.

nailed it.

A nit has a set here and is never folding to your raise.

As sick as it sounds, this is a fold (if villain is a bonafide nit).

-If the hits on river you don't get paid off, he folds
-You don't have the odds to draw to the flush
-at best you are chopping with another AK (again if V is a bonafide nit, and truthfully, most nits are NOT betting this turn with AK no club).

So yeah, believe it or not, if your read is accurate and V is a true nit, you can/should actually fold turn

This tilts me to no end here on 2+2. We have got to get some consensus on our definitions of what the hell a nit is.

Imo, a true nit is never raising TT from UTG and is rarely raising JJ from UTG and no way in hell a nit raises AQ from UTG.

Most nits would limp/call AK/JJ/QQ from UTG

So an UTG raise from a nit is going to be KK/AA like 75% of the time, JJ/QQ/AK the remaining 25%.. Not to say nits wouldn't limp/re-raise KK/AA from UTG because that is their bread and butter move, they live for that chit.

Anyways, if V is a true nit, he has a set here like always. If he shows up with any hand other than a set, then your description is off.

A simple word choice would help. You can describe him as a semi-nit or nitty. that widens his range. But when you say the word "nit" that is a very powerful word/description that should not be casually thrown around to describe players as that will lead to profiling mistakes that can cost you money.

In general, when we are up against nits or nitty players, we are almost never wrong to just deny them action.

I get a sick joy in my heart folding JJ/QQ, AKo to nit raises. And why the hell not? True nits raise less than 2% of the time (especially from EP). So why the hell not deny them action and fold JJ/QQ, AKo (unless we have odds to set mine the JJ/QQ)

In any event, as sick as it sounds, I just fold turn here...

Agreed with what dgi said. Some super nits only raise AA/KK. Some only raise QQ+. Some will throw in JJ and/or AK, and then their range is more like a nit-TAG. A standard TAG is likely raising 99+/AQ+ from EP. It's a continuum.

Most players will have AK here, and every time they are holding it, raising all-in is an incredibly strong play.

We are freerolling all combos of AK, so every time he calls our $159 bet we make $32.

It's even better if he's a weak-nit and finds folds with AK. Every time that happens, we make $210. Obviously, if he has all 6 combos of AK and folds them then getting it in is profitable.

Sets we are obviously doing terribly against but we do suck out on them 1/5 times. We lose $259 four times for every $600 pot we win, netting us -436 in these 5 pots. We are only losing $88 each time he holds a set.

Ok, so if he has AK all 6 times and folds them we win 1260. And we lose 352 to his sets (4*88) so – assuming he has all combos of AK here and folds them – going all-in will net us: NINE HUNDRED AND EIGHT DOLLARS!!! Gasp. That's if we get to play the hand ten times in a row though. :P If he calls we are only making 32 six times and that won't make up for 88 four times, so it's a fold.

So yeah, we would have to have a very specific set of reads: 1) he has AK here, 2) he folds AK here. If those were our reads, shove away. Without knowing both of these folding is best. This player sounds like he doesn't have AK here sadly.

Players who would bet/fold AK here are not rare, and in fact raising would be a great move to use against a TAG who can and will bet/fold AK when the flush comes in.

No, he doesn't have a flush or two pair or a bluff here. His range, with this action on this board, is exactly: AA,JJ, and possibly AK.

By the way, knowing how a player plays AK is critical to understanding a player's style and how he thinks. I'm surprised we don't know how this player plays AK. OP, have you ever seen this guy showdown AK in a pot he limped, or in a pot he raised?

"very nitty; limp calls sometimes and raises almost never"

The first 2 words are not described by the following 7. When I read that line I was made tired because I didn't know if OP knew what he was really talking about. He may but it's possible he doesn't because of this line.

Maybe terms like nit, lag, tag should be banned from opponent descriptions. Instead, tell us what you've seen him do.

If he were truly a super nit as I know them, it's a fold preflop and an easy one.

What's interesting in the hand is his flop and turn bet sizing. His pfr is still AA or KK mostly so the small bet on flop could be AA nervous betting or not minding callers or a raise and turn bigger bet is to charge the flush draw that needs just one more club.

If villain is not actually nitty then disregard this assessment. In fact, if villain doesn't have AA 95% of the time and JJ the other 5% then he's not a nit at all. Nits don't even raise pre with AK much less UTG and nits don't bluff.

I guess we could have a nit who goes crazy on the last hand every session. That would be entertaining.

To me, key is in the UTG raise by the super nit.

If he raised $16 UTG and has continued with $25 and now $100, he has JJ/AA.

Fold pre