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1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision 1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision

02-25-2014 , 05:19 PM
1-2 $300 max buy-in

Hero: mid 20's white male wearing a green hoodie. Just sat down less than 20 minutes so my image is only at a stereotypical level to most at table I assume. I've called one pfr and folded on the flop, so my stack is $288.

Villain 1: 20's/30's east indian male. Very styled and has chain necklace and chain bracelet, lots of "bling." Doesn't seem to be a reg but comfortable at the table, comes off as a "big shot." Just sat down as well, stack $280.

Villain 2: 30's white male. Had around $150 a few hands ago, got it all on in a J35r after raising preflop and a short stack of $100 shoved. KK vs KJ and a J on the river so he seems to be on tilt. Stack $56

On to the hand!

Villain 1 opens in UTG+1 to $10, hero calls in MP with AJ, Villain 2 calls on BTN, BB calls.

Flop: JT2 (pot $40)

BB checks, Villain 1 bets 20, hero calls, villain 2 goes AI for $46, BB folds, villain 1 calls, hero calls.

Turn: JT23 (pot ~$175 1 player AI)

Villain 1 quickly slams down a stack for $100, hero...

Last edited by NebDanger; 02-25-2014 at 05:31 PM. Reason: fixed suits
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-25-2014 , 05:27 PM
Shoves for value against Jx/SD's/FD's/Combo draws.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-25-2014 , 05:33 PM
The fact that V1 continues to bet makes me feel like we're still behind. We've got a blocker to AA that makes it less likely. KK and QQ are still more than viable options with how he's betting, as well as AXss. I'd actually rather the villain have KK or QQ as it mean's our Ace and J is still live to draw to as well (though that probably a lot less likely with V2 shoving).

If you're gambling, go for it. Someone correct my math but if we make the call we're Calling $100 to win $375.

I'd need some help with the stove...but I don't believe calling here is wrong.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-25-2014 , 05:34 PM
def not folding
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-25-2014 , 05:54 PM
You kind of need to decide if you need to improve in order to win this hand. I think fold equity is non existent. If we shove we can sometimes be called by hands like TPTK that we free roll. But I am willing to put his range right at 1010+ with AA and JJ being heavily discounted. Sprinkle in the occasional times he goes crazy with AJ we have about 30% equity. I think flatting is totally fine and shipping all rivers that improve our hand strength. This is only assuming you can ever fold the river. If you can't get away from the hand the time to get it in is the turn.

Edit: agree with the above, so we have the odds to draw. So calling and potentially folding the river unimproved seems like the best play.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-25-2014 , 07:41 PM
This is a fist-pump shove.

Calling then folding the river is ridiculous.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
660 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J T 2 3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AdJd37.73% 144210
JT, TT, AJ62.27% 306210

We have the right equity even against a monster range. Realistically, it's safe to say his range is probably closer to this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,012 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J T 2 3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AdJd57.61% 478210
JT, TT, AJ, KJ42.39% 324210

And it could totally be this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,716 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J T 2 3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AdJd65.21% 1,014210
JT, TT, AJ, KJ, KQ34.79% 492210

Or this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,364 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J T 2 3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AdJd67.23% 812210
JT, TT, AJ, KJ, QJ32.77% 342210

Last edited by DaYu; 02-25-2014 at 07:46 PM.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-25-2014 , 07:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaYu
This is a fist-pump shove.

Calling then folding the river is ridiculous.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
660 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J T 2 3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AdJd37.73% 144210
JT, TT, AJ62.27% 306210

We have the right equity even against a monster range. Realistically, it's safe to say his range is probably closer to this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,012 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J T 2 3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AdJd57.61% 478210
JT, TT, AJ, KJ42.39% 324210

And it could totally be this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,716 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J T 2 3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AdJd65.21% 1,014210
JT, TT, AJ, KJ, KQ34.79% 492210

Or this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,364 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J T 2 3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AdJd67.23% 812210
JT, TT, AJ, KJ, QJ32.77% 342210
Are we discounting QQ, and KK? I didn't see it in your range tools.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-25-2014 , 07:53 PM
2 things.....

Anyone like 3betting preflop?

Anyone like raising the flop once V1 just flats V2's raise? I take his flat as being kind of weak.

As played def not folding and def not flatting so only thing left is to shove.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-25-2014 , 11:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigpants
Are we discounting QQ, and KK? I didn't see it in your range tools.
Oh I messed up the positions. Didn't realize V1 opened from UTG.

I'll have to edit the ranges a bit when I'm at my computer.

My guess is that shoving is still best, though.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-26-2014 , 06:03 AM
You have like $230 back effective on the turn right?

Im probably just shoving it in. If you call though, you have to call river. The only reason why id choose calling over shoving is if i thought villian had bluffs in his range, but its pretty unlikely with the other villian all in. Also seems like villian should be weak since he didnt reraise otf. With that said i think shoving is probably best.

If he does have an overpair its not a total disaster
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-26-2014 , 07:31 AM
Never folding and i'm extremely confident we have the better hand.

If you feel your post-flop play is superior, go ahead and 3b pre. I probably would even though it's still a relatively new table, but if this happens, I'm c-betting every flop no matter at comes.

Raise flop after V1 bets. Time to exploit weaker jacks and pps.

Bet turn.

Bet/shove river.

As played, shove. He's coming along if he has oesd or fd, and might come along with weaker j's given the pot size. I'm a big fan of calling turn bets knowing that I'm never folding no matter what just so I can have the opportunity to call another bet that could possibly be V's shove, or to raise a river bet and watch V call because "lolpotodds", but this isn't one of them. His range includes a lot of draws and the action his voluntary money is killed if he doesn't hit. Make him commit now.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-28-2014 , 03:38 PM
Thanks for the replies, here's results:

Spoiler:
Hero shoves, Villain calls. River is A, villain 2 shows JT, villain 1 QQ, and hero scoops.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-28-2014 , 04:24 PM
Wouldn't you expect V1 to reraise on the flop to isolate against the shorty? Since he didn't, I think I would strongly consider doing so myself. Make that KQ pay the max to draw out. I think I'd ship it.

As played, I think you can just call, because I doubt he's calling a shove with worse. There are a fair number of river cards we will like, and we are in position with a sneaky backdoor draw.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-28-2014 , 04:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish Taco
Anyone like 3betting preflop?
Not really.

Quote:
Anyone like raising the flop once V1 just flats V2's raise? I take his flat as being kind of weak.
Yes.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-28-2014 , 04:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mickeypowell5
Raise flop after V1 bets. Time to exploit weaker jacks and pps.
I don't think raising the c-bet is the best idea with two players left to act, but I do like reraising to isolate after V1 just calls the shove.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote
02-28-2014 , 04:39 PM
I agree that I'm most likely raising the flop after the shortstack c/r.

As played I'm shoving. I think we're getting called by worse draws, J's with worse kickers enough to make up for the times when he has QQ, KK, AA and sets. Even against those hands we have anywhere from 9-14 outs.
1/2 TPTK + NFD turn decision Quote

      
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