UTG (fairly tight pre but aggro post) opens to £8 mp (loose passive donk) calls I call btn with 9sTs £400 effective vs both then BB also calls. BB is middle-aged live reg. He plays fairly abc and generally has loose passive live player tendencies. In a previous session he shoved over my turn bet (after flatting pre-flop and on flop) with turned straight JTo on KdQc7sAs when I had AA and flatted flop lead from other player, he’d over-called and then I’d lead turn when other player checked to me. I called it off and spiked a K on river to stack him for around £250.

I have 9T

Pot is £40. Flop comes 986

Checked to me I bet £32 into £40 – BB calls, other two fold.

Turn comes 9868

Pot is £112 and he has around £165 behind…

Against a range of flush draws, A9, K9s, 97, 86, 87, 67, occasional A8 (think he folds this a fair amount 4 way on the flop) what is my best play? Do I want to bet on the turn to fold some better 9x / get value from draws? Or is he rarely folding on turn with better / rarely putting £ in with worse such that I should be checking back?....

This suggests I should bet / call as if I can get 9x to fold that's a huge result.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,244 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 9868

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Ts9s	47.15%	962	192
Ad8d, A9, K9, 97, 86, 87, 67	52.85%	1,090	192

Yea I think b/c is probably best here. Like you said we are almost breakeven here and getting any combo of 9x to fold makes this a nice +EV spot.

With the stack sizes the way they are on the turn I think I would just shove. You're calling if he raises anyway so I think shoving maximizes you FE.

Good point! Although we are repping a pretty narrow range when we overbet shove and this may increase the frequency with which we get called as opposed to b/c but it is nearly impossible to know this. It will probably depend heavily on villains hand reading ability.

Ok I elect to check back. River comes Kh and he checks. Do I check or bet? Why? Notice that I now split with say Q9, J9.

ya check it back OTR for sure. U got good enough SDV here and I expect to be good or chop quite a bit.

This is a really easy bet on the turn. As you pointed out, getting stronger 9x to fold is important. You have a big hand, but currently, your showdown value is weak. I bet $150 on turn... or maybe even just shove. Its extremely unlikely that he peeps flop with an 8 when you bet nearly pot.

We also need to bet big to protect against big flush draws.

As played check river.

I kinda like a smallish bet like 60 on the turn. It leaves a good amount behind to shove river if you hit.