Playing at a 1/2 game against a short stacked opponent who has been pretty tight all night, playing few hands, with one or two hands where he did a lot of big raising and everyone folded.

JQcc in late position, I raise pre to 15, get 2 callers. Flop is 9 10 6 with 2 clubs. I bet 20 on the flop and I'm raised to 45. I call.

Turn is a Qh. Villain bets 85 (he has $125 total before making this bet and I cover him.)

Hero?

Pretty easy call as played. You need 2:1 against all "nutted" type hands (66, 99, TT, T9s, 78s) and you're getting nearly 2.6:1 on a call. Folding is NOT an option here. Call turn and make decision on river.

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In my games at the Commerce, virtually all the regulars would have shoved after the $45 raise on the flop. If we really have clean outs for both the straight and the flush we are the favorite.

But now instead of two cards to come, there is only one.

If we think the flush draw is good should we bink it, we have nine flush outs (assuming Villain doesn't fill up with a paired river card) and six straight outs - 15 total and thus about 30% equity. (If we think our potential set of Q's is good, 17 outs, about 34%.)

Do we think our one pair QQ is good? Seems unlikely unless Villain is capable of making a move here.

Pot is now just over $200 and it's $85 (42% not counting the remaining $40 behind, which will probably go in on the river even if we hit the obvious flush draw) to call. It's close.

Ride the variance train at this point - combination draws don't come along all that often. At 1/2 if we aren't going to play them, we are missing out on value. How thin? Without a read there is only one way to find out.

Shove flop pal

For real, shove the flop. Even against a set it's +EV unless the other caller gets in too and has a bigger flush draw.

Against any T/X or any overpair, including AA or KK, you're a coin flip or a favorite. Very +EV.

reraise flop raise--shove

And not just for value.

If we have ANY fold equity at all (where we win on the spot without further cards because Villain folds) --- even as little as 15%-20% fold equity ---then dang, where do I sign up to play this every hand?