Quote:
Originally Posted by hyperknit
I was watching a concept video from Phil Galfond where he said that u shouldn’t bluff unless u can rep a value hand. And likewise u shouldn’t valuebet unless u can rep a bluff.
Do u not think this concept applies here?
In general that's correct. In this specific case no. Here's why.
So he has two categories of hand. Value and bluff.
His value is going to consist of Ax and better. His bluff could range from total airball to turned spades.
So let's go with group one. Let's say he value raises A9+ and can't have AA in his range (but can have 44). We go all in. He's getting 4.75:1 on a call. Almost no one is going to fold a hand as strong as Ax (with redraw, mind you) for that price. So shoving weakly dominates calling against this group, because we get the same or more no matter what he has. And if he wants to fold Ax when we have TT, that's fine.
Now let's go with group two. Is he gonna bluff the river when called? Maybe if he's a kamikaze pilot. But if, say, he has spades, he's only putting in if he hits most likely, and at 4.75:1 he might call it off anyway. Calling may perform better here if he has like KQ, and we give him his 4 outer to put the last 40 in, but this will be a small portion of his range.
So shoving doesn't weakly dominate calling, but it's going to do better, on average, against both portions of his range. Pot odds always supersede range distribution; you have to take a price when you have the correct odds to do so, even if it means continuing wider than you'd like.