Villain - He is a mid 40s male. We have been playing together for a few hours now and from what I have seen is semi - competent. Early in the session he took a couple of bad river beats where his villains were drawing to only 2 outs. He has shown a propensity when he is the pre flop raiser to fire a cbet no matter how many people are in the hand. Within the past hour he has taken another beat where he completely misread what his opponent had and is showing physical tells of being slightly disgusted and possibly tilting a little bit. After this hand he then begins to raise over 50% of his hands. He has been winning most of these hands by firing two bullets and taking the pot down on the turn. So I am not sure if the deck is just hitting him hard now or if he is just spazzing.

Hero - I have been completely card dead almost the whole session. I have not played many hands and I cannot think villain could label me a TAG or a LAG. If anything he may view me as a nit.

On to the Hand: Effective Stacks are $325 and villain has hero covered.

Villain in MP raises to $11 (standard raise for him). 3 callers and I call in the BB with A 9.

I make this call because I have 4:1 odds to draw at my flush and I am capable of dropping top pair.

Pot ($50 after rake)
Flop: A 3 9

Hero checks to villain who cbets $30. All fold to hero who elects to call.

I call because this is a standard cbet for villain and I believe he can make this cbet with almost his whole range. I did not want to blow him off the hand here. I am giving villain a wide range here with 77+, A10s+, AJo+, SCs 89+, Suited Broadways.

Pot ($108 after rake)
Turn: Q

Hero checks and villain bets $60. Hero thinks for a minute and elects to call.

I am actually not a big fan of this card. I have seen him fire two barrels since villain went on his "raising spree" so I am still giving him a slightly wider range but now I am ranging him at 99+, Suited Broadways, and A10s+.

Pot ($228 after rake)
River: 7

Hero checks and villain goes all in. Hero?????

Is this really a tough decision at this point in the hand? I am not sure if villain is capable of firing three bullets. I am sure I butchered this hand pretty bad so thoughts on all streets are appreciated.

iCall.

Your not going to flop a flush draw 1 in 5 times just fyi... Remember you need 2 hearts to make a draw not 1

How thinly is this villain capable of valuebetting?

Assuming your range is correct then he can't have A3s so the only worse 'big hand' he can reasonably have is probably Q9s, although I'd argue that anyone opening SCs is also likely to open Ax suited too from the same position.

So the only 3 value hands you can beat are Q9s, AJ and AK - but do we know he definitely bets AJ and AK for 3 streets including a river shove? Live players tend to be bad at valuebetting thinly so his overbet jam seems a bit polarized. Ordinarily I'd give him credit for AQ+ on the river and fold without further reads, but you have to factor in the short term effects of tilt too. This definitely puts more bluffs in his range (Qc puts some draws to barrel with on the turn) but also might be causing him to valuebet thinner with a "I flopped TP, I'm going with it" type attitude.

So based on that, I call. Not thrilled but I think that opponent tilt has a pretty big part to play in your decisions playing live where you are better able to spot the signs compared to online. It would help to know the timing of his bets postflop, were they snap bets or did he take a lot of time before each decision? Fast bets and I'm more inclined to call. Even a top player can become the table fish when tilted.

NH...assuming you called the river.

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I'm a bit concerned with villains river bet sizing. Is it possible villain is putting you on a good Ace and know he can get max value with AQ, QQ, 99, 33? I doubt he can have 77 in his range, but QQ/AQ/99/33 is more concievable. Over bet on the river are rarely bluffs at low stakes. Given villains current mind set (tilty) i'm tempted to make this call, but I think we'll be shown better two pair or a set here so often with this line. In addition, if villain is semi competent he should realized how tight hero has been playing. We've called two bets OOP on a dry board, i'm sure he gives us credit for a hand...

How often can villain shove river with AK/AJ/AT? We have to be right 1/3 times, most likely picking a better spot tbh....

This is wrong

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Thanks for the input. What odds should I be given to make this call and be correct? This is obviously a leak of mine I did not know. Thanks.

I was concerned with the river bet size as well. I have seen where this could be a bluff because villain just doesn't know what else to do to win the hand or this could be a value hand for the villain.

I did rule out 77 and 33 by the river. I wouldn't think he would raise 33 pre however I could be wrong. I do believe QQ/AQ/99 make up a decent part of his range by the river as well. I am not sure how often villain could make this move with AK/AJ/A10 or even KK. The bet to me seemed like it could only be called by 2 pair or better which seems like an odd bet to get value. My thinking can definitely be flawed here.

I really thought about this river decision for a good 4-5 minutes.

This is an easy call against steaming villain who opens 50% and always fires 2 streets, every other hand his opponents have dumped their cards on the turn right? So we don't know how he plays the river but we can assume he is going to barrel away.

He is polarized some what here, but you cannot give him credit for AQ+ and just fold.

I would have check/raised the turn fwiw, the Qc puts a lot of draws out there/ improves a buch of his range, he definitely can and will call w/ draws, worse A's, and worse 2 pair's. This will also make the river play straight forward. IE your never considering a fold.

Good insight. Yes villains were dumping on the turn against him. I actually thought more on c/r the flop as opposed to the turn. The thought to bomb the turn crossed my mind but only for a second. What would you c/r the turn too? Also what range do you have villain on? How off is my turn range compared to yours?

I think you flop a flush draw 11% of the time you see a flop with suited cards, and it's 34% to be completed by the river....

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Thanks. I knew the odds for completing the river and I always used the 4:1 ratio when deciding to call preflop with suited cards. Should help me fill a leak I didn't even know I had. Good info.

Also ur A is easily dominated

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This is a pretty standard line to trap a passive steaming villain and let him steamroll his stack right into you. Provided you don't chicken out on the river. Sometimes he has AA here and you get mike McDermotted oh well.

Passive line not passive villain excuse me.

Yes I know my Ace is easily dominated. If I only flopped top pair I can lay it down. I continued obviously because I hit 2 pair. So are you saying to just fold this hand preflop then since the Ace is easily dominated?

So if a villain has been raising over 50% of hands is The Ace easily dominated at this point. Obviously folding Top pair is villain dependent. I'm not saying I fold top pair to all Cbets because that's insane. It's all based on the read you have on the villain.

The odds of flopping a flush draw are 8.14:1 I believe.

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Grunch

Vs a guy that's tilting and opening 50% of hands I would def 3 bet this pre especially with the calls in between. He's not folding and we keep the initiative, he misses tons and we force hit to make a hand.... Also as played I like leading this flop

Raise turn.
Snap call river.
Qc is a nice card for you, he can pick up SD + FDs which he'll continue to bet. He'll sometimes improve to beat you but dats poker baby.

Three bet pre. As played NH, call.