Here's a hand that I think I played well until the river, where things got a bit tricky for me, and I overlooked some important info.

Villain in this hand is BB, I'm in SB. Eff. stack around 150bb. We've been playing for a few hours. He's somewhat elderly, asian, been playing pretty nitty, but every now and then will show some aggression a bit out of line (preflop, short stacked), just having some fun. So he's not a complete nit, but neither is he a maniac. He's not involved in that many hands, so I haven't been paying much attention to him, as there are 3 serious fish in the game, one of whom is tilting and telling me how bad I'm playing I've been playing tight, everyone thinks I'm a nit, but I've recently been caught bluffing on 2 notable occasions, so my image isn't that great, kind of liminal; yes I'm playing nitty, but I've also been seen bluffing recently. 2 players I know will be calling me down light, others who know me better will not necessarily do so, but this villain, I'm not sure what he thinks of it, or if he's even thinking about it. Basically a tight rec player, enjoying himself, but not doing anything really terrible.

I haven't seen him bluff at all or do any bet/folding, as I recall. He's usually either calling and x/folding, or betting and no one is really raising him.

So, 6 handed, I have KT in the SB, loose passive table, 3 limpers, I complete, BB checks.

Flop (10): KT6 w/ 2 hearts

I lead out 10, V calls, everyone else folds.

Turn (30): KT6 A
I lead 25, V calls. This is, in retrospect, the crucial part of the hand for me. He just called, and didn't seem particularly afraid of the A. So he's either slowplaying a monster, has AT/A6, or is drawing to hearts, maybe with Ax of hearts.

River (80) KT6 A J

I hesitate and check. Villain takes his time and cuts out 40. I look over and he looks very calm. Often when someone is bluffing the river I can see the fear (sounds silly, maybe, but it pays off).

The problem there is that I'm sure I looked like I was afraid of the now 4 to a straight board, though it was also the fact that hands KQ, KJ, TQ (less likely) now are beating me. AK is possible, though he is generally raising pre. It's possible he's slowplaying a set or JQ; generally one would expect a raise with these hands, but I honestly don't know if he would. As I said he's basically a rec player, and I haven't been watching him much. I was basically inviting him to bluff his busted draws, though I think he would be checking behind his Ax's.

So I have a bluff-catcher. I haven't seen this guy bluff, he doesn't look like he's bluffing, many of his reasonable holdings are now beating me, so I fold.

Thinking back over the hand, I think it's an easy call, and terrible fold, entirely because of the way he called the turn. The A didn't scare him, he just called without really thinking about it. I don't know, I'm still not quite sure about it, mostly because my info on villain is lacking, and my reads are conflicted.

Anyone have any input on my thought process here?

Hand seems to be played find on the flop and turn. On the river I think a check is fine, don't really see a ton of value betting out on the river. I guess if we think villain will call a small bet with Ax we could bet/fold something like 20-25, but possibly too thin.

When he bets we need to be good 25% of the time to call. Versus most rec players in this spot I think we can just fold. I really doubt he's turning any pair into a bluff, especially not Ahx. So his bets on the river are pretty polarized to Qx and missed hearts that don't have Ax or Jx.

If you think he's bluffing here more than 25% definitely go ahead and call, but from most villains I've experienced at this limit I'd probably just fold.

Why do you say bad fold on river? Did he show his hand to you?

I would probably ponder it over for a while and then call, but this might be a terrible leak in my game. I don't know. I've been trying to make the occasional hero call, and this seems like a good spot for it. Actually, this doesn't even fall into the hero call category.

> good possibility of a busted flush draw. $40 is a cheap stab at an $80 pot in the face of your hesitancy, if he thinks that's a valid tell.
> good possibility of Ax. I think villain is capable of betting an A5 type hand here. He's got top pair against a dude in the small blind who has shown hesitancy. In this case you have a lot more than a bluff catcher. He thinks he's betting for value. Maybe he's trying to extract value from a King.
> possibility he has lower two pair. His line makes perfect sense with T6.

I think the hand was played fine. I'm not thrilled with completing SB with this hand, so I might have raised or folded, but I know lots of people complete with hands like this.

Flop and turn OK. River fold is fine. You don't beat much, especially against described player. If he is known to take stabs when others check, you can call. Otherwise, fold is fine.

Yawn, fold, next hand.

Flop well played.

Turn well played.

River well played.

I don't see anything in your HH about V floating/merging you. Take the hand at face value, the guy rivered a straight.

I think I like check call better than bet fold here. It seems to me that bet fold targets Ax which I dont think is a huge part of the flop calling range. It also invites a bluff raise (although rarely)

Check call (depending on sizing) gives missed gut shot / heart combo draws a chance to bluff.

As played that sizing seems pretty value-ish, so I probably fold.

If we had aces up I would throw out a blocker on the river.

I'd probably call. Seems like he would have a think on the turn with KQ And QT. Qh9h and QJ are the only hands reasonable that beat you, and this is a busted draw so often. Not the most comfy call but I'm making it. These types of players at 1/2 will also just bet an empty ace here.

You think he's calling on flop with an empty A? I guess if it's AhXh. From description, not the type to bet busted draw, but maybe description is off?

From description, I just don't see any hand V would play this way that we beat.

Now a day later I can look back on the hand a bit more clearly.

NOTE: He's not merging. I just don't believe it. I've never seen a player of less then "good" skill level merge value on the river. He's not betting an A for value, I seriously doubt he's turning an A into a bluff, the more "natural" play is to just check it down and hope you're good, right? He doesn't know that an Ax is never good, so he won't bluff it.

Simply, what hands is villain betting for value on the river?

KQ, which based on the quick turn call is just not likely.
JQ, possible, don't know if he would raise the turn.
Qxhh

KJ? AT? I think he's probably checking back these hands back.

I also think he's checking back Ax hearts.

Which leaves him bluffing an unknown % of the time his busted heart draws. I've never thought about applying Occam's Razor to poker, but this would be a good place to do so. Turn action indicates he drawing. A heart draw that he's now bluffing fits the action perfectly. Other hands I'm losing to are also possible, but require that he did something a little weird.

I'm getting 3:1, am I good 25% of the time? Maybe not, but I can't be that far off, especially given that my river action was just begging him to bluff at it. Against a V that had shown a significant inclination to bluff, I would be checking here to induce the bluff.
But really, occam's razor, I don't know whether or not I'm good, a busted heart draw is the simplest solution, I should really just be calling this river and making a note for future reference.

Hero notes that villain does get a little aggro on occasion, and he also notes that Hero's hesitation on the river was palatable to the entire table.

No, I don't think naked aces make up a ton of his range, but it's not impossible.

Here is my read from OP:

His aggression: but every now and then will show some aggression a bit out of line (preflop, short stacked)

And this: I haven't seen him bluff at all or do any bet/folding, as I recall. He's usually either calling and x/folding

Just doesn't seem the type to bet air or worse than two pair here, IMHO, and almost every two pair beats us.

Played perfectly. NH sir.

Yeah, this one is played pretty well. If he got a bluff through than well played to him. He likely had equity throughout the hand anyway and his sizing if he bluffed the river is close to perfect.

I wouldn't lose sleep over a small pot and a bad board run out. If he's much more aggressive than whatever take the 1/3 on a bluff beater I think this fold against this Vil in this case is just a case of playing solid poker.