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Old 01-27-2016, 08:33 AM   #76
spikeraw22
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

Psh. I also realized I included 88 in his continuing range. I'd have to redo this calc if I was gonna really get into a heated debate. Luckily, it's still one sided enough that the point still stands. The process is still good too. I haven't done one of theses in a few months. I probably should have proof read my work haha. Oh well.
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Old 01-27-2016, 10:39 AM   #77
Willyoman
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

Nice work Spike!

By the way, I'd keep 88 in is continuing range. Thoughts?

I can't really imagine 88 folds. I'm not even sure 88 *should* fold. 88 is even money vs 76 and a 2:1 dog vs 77 exactly. Pretty sure 88 sticks around and is often approximately a 1.5:1 dog vs hero's full range, so raise/folding 88 would be quite meh.
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Old 01-27-2016, 01:14 PM   #78
PhillyEagles9
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
OK, here is the promised math. I had to make some assumptions-

1. Hero's range is accurate (I doubt it)
2. V is not playing unsuited connectors (I doubt it)
3. I came up with a continuing range vs. our shove. Changing that will alter things, but I don't think it changes the overall conclusions.
4. I didn't get into the EV calcs of various turn cards because I want to see my family before I die.

All of my assumptions will overestimate V's equity (except for 98o). If you widen his range, you're equity skyrockets.

Ranges:

Raising range: 98s, 55,66,88,76s,75s,JJ+ (42 combos)
Continuing range vs. shove: 98s, 55, 66, 76s, 75s, KK+ (24 combos)
Continues: 57% Folds: 43%

Pot: $119
To shove: $272
Won if called: $341
Lost if called: $222
To call: $50

Equity when called: 81.8%

EV if V folds: $119*0.43=$51.17
EV if V calls and we win: $341*0.818=$278.94
EV if V calls and we lose: $222*.182=-$49.50
EV if called: ($278.94-$49.5)*0.57=$130.78

Total EV of shoving: $51.17+$130.78=$181.95


TURN SCARE CARDS


Scare cards for hero: 's, 4,8,9=22
22/47 (47 unknown cards)= 47%

V's Range broken down
JJ=14.3% QQ=14.3% KK=14.3% AA=14.3% 88=14.3% 55/66=14% 76s/75s=5% 98s=9.5%

Scare Cards by hand (scare cards/45 unknown cards)
JJ='s,4,8,9,Q+ (62%) QQ='s,4,8,9,K+ (56%) KK='s,4,8,9,A (47%) AA='s,4,8,9 (42%) 88='s,T+ (56%) 55/66: 's,4,8,9 (42%) 76s/75s: 's,8,9 (42%) 98s: 's,5,6,7 (38%)

Percentage scare card hits and opponent holds each hand (likelihood of holding*likelihood scare card hits for that hand)
JJ=9% QQ=8% KK=7% AA=6% 88=8% 55/66=6% 76s/75s=2% 98s=4%

Sum equals likelihood scare card hits for villain: 50%

Likelihood scare card hits both by hand (shared scare cards/total V scare cards by hand):
JJ=68% QQ=76% KK=90% AA=100% 88=40% 55/66=100% 76s/75s=100% 89s=59%

Likelihood of both hitting scare card overall by hand
JJ=6% QQ=6% KK=6% AA=6% 88=3% 55/66=6% 76s/75s=2% 89s=2%

Sum equals likelihood scare card hits for both: 37%


Conclusion

1. Shoving flop is massively +EV in it's own right. Against what i consider a reasonable calling range given the orignal raising range provided, you can expect to win almost all of the money right then and there. If you remove the 2 pair hands that goes down quite a bit, but it's still pretty +EV.

2. As Dutchstreetfish said, literally half the deck is a scare card for villain. That's across his entire range too. Conversely almost half the deck is a scare card for hero as well. So that's 50% of the time you see a turn one of you is not going to be happy about putting the rest of the money in and based on the EV calc for the flop shove, that's catastrophic.

3. Over 1/3 of the time, neither one of you are going to want to put more money in the pot on the turn, which again is worst case scenerio based on flop EV. So without even getting into EV calcs for turn cards, it should be obvious that getting to the turn without all the money going in is vastly inferior.

4. I would discount QQ+ from his opening range since he'd probably 3 bet that some/most of the time. I'd also add at least the best draws as well as some of the unsuited connectors. This pumps up your flop EV even more.

5. Everyone who is serious about poker should be able to do this work. There's no excuse if you haven't learned how to work these things out. All I used was flopzilla and a calculator, but you could do this with nothing but a calculator and a simple equity program. There's no other concrete way to determine what plays are good and bad. In this instance, the "other players" OP consulted were dead wrong and he wouldn't know it if he didn't (or i didn't) do the math. So learn it. And do it.

6. If i made any clerical or math errors I apologize. I'm sure I did somewhere along the line.

This is a great post and as a viewer of these threads I appreciate it because I am learning how to do this kind of math. My only question is you can't sit at the table with flopzilla, so this is only good when analyzing previous hands correct? Obviously the more you do it you will get a feel for the right move but do you actually sit at the table with flopzilla up?
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Old 01-27-2016, 01:57 PM   #79
spikeraw22
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

No that would be ridiculous. It is important however to be able to concretely analyze decisions both post session and hypothetically. The more you do it the better you'll be able to figure it out approximately in real time.
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Old 01-27-2016, 04:47 PM   #80
JIMMERZZZ
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

The only reason I can think of calling flop is to lower villains all in equity when a blank peels on the turn . If you think he will play combo draws like this on the flop and shove most turns to "put pressure on your overpairs" then it's ok I guess. Still prefer shoving flop though.
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Old 01-28-2016, 01:02 AM   #81
sewktbk
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

Quote:
Originally Posted by JIMMERZZZ View Post
The only reason I can think of calling flop is to lower villains all in equity when a blank peels on the turn . If you think he will play combo draws like this on the flop and shove most turns to "put pressure on your overpairs" then it's ok I guess. Still prefer shoving flop though.
Except that if Villain already has a straight and beats us, we are the ones losing equity when a blank peels on the turn. So while we are at 40% on the flop, we are down to 20% on the turn, which makes it more of a mistake for us to call a shove then.

of course we are dealing with ranges and not exact hands when taking our decision, but we still have to consider this I think. Which is why it now appears clear that a shove OTF is preferable.
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Old 01-28-2016, 04:57 AM   #82
j_z
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

who opens to $8 in a 1/2 live game?

im shoving flop. assuming hes the tightest of tight old men and his range is 98o 98s 66 and 55 we are 50.79%
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Old 01-31-2016, 07:14 PM   #83
Ragequit99
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

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Originally Posted by j_z View Post
who opens to $8 in a 1/2 live game?
I tried once...

My first session ever at the casino I was dealt KK UTG for my first hand while still sorting out my chips (200 in 1, 5 and 25 chips). They don't make you wait for big blind - you just get dealt in when you sit down unless you say otherwise.

Stupidly nervous and flustered; I announced an open raise to 8 but placed three 25 chips and a 5 chip by mistake! Unsurprisingly everyone folded to my 80 raise. Over the next round of the table, as well as learning what the chip values were, I discovered the normal table open was 10 so have never tried to open to 8 since
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