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Old 01-23-2016, 10:11 PM   #51
Dutchstreetfish
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

20 scare cards on the turn that might kill action is a ton of scare cards. So, put me in the "raise flop" camp, as well as the "it's a mistake to flat the flop" camp. Like, a big mistake if half the deck kills your action or might let V bluff you off a huge hand.

Re: flopped straight: if two pair hands are in his range, then so are combos of 98. So a straight may or may not win his range. Given that he's old and it was raised pre, I'd probably include 98s in his range and exclude 98o.

I'm shipping it anyways bc even if all combos of 98 are in his range, we're still in great shape.

The hand we might fear the most is 88 or 8xss. Even old Vs will play 8xss fast here.

As played, GII. And, flatting the flop is a mistake.

And, to answer a poster's Q: have I ever folded top set on a board like this? Nope. Ship it. In this scenario, I've lost twice that I can remember and won the rest (too many to remember), so my small data set supports shipping. I'm also shipping middle set, and usually bottom set, too. Though if you wanted to debate whether you could fold bottom set here, you'd probably get votes in either side.
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Old 01-23-2016, 11:21 PM   #52
WereBeer
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardball47 View Post
Has anybody here ever folded top set OTF to what they thought was a straight?

Anyone?
I am a total rock and have never folded top set OTF to a possible straight * and would not consider doing so unless stacks were > 300bb or I had some sick reads going on.

* In fact I have never folded top set on the flop period.

Last edited by WereBeer; 01-23-2016 at 11:27 PM.
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Old 01-23-2016, 11:26 PM   #53
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

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Originally Posted by Homey D. Clown View Post
OP, Willyoman is right and you are wrong. Yes, it is that simple. Try to learn from his posts.
This.
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Old 01-23-2016, 11:58 PM   #54
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

Quote:
Originally Posted by Homey D. Clown View Post
OP, Willyoman is right and you are wrong. Yes, it is that simple. Try to learn from his posts.

With what hands is this villain raise/folding this board anyway? Very likely with none whatsoever. Get it in while he still wants to.

This hand doesn't deserve almost 50 responses imo.
Harsh but true. Nothing more needs to be said. OP received good feedback and solid analysis. Posters shouldn't be afraid to discuss their hands and workout how it could have been played better. Endless attempts to justify a terrible decision wastes everyone's time. Next topic.
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Old 01-24-2016, 01:17 PM   #55
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

I'm also surprised by the length of this thread. OP doesn't seem to
Be convinced but no one has actually presented any math either. I will try later. OP give me a REASONABLE flop raising range. If it's not reasonable I'll make my own.
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Old 01-24-2016, 01:53 PM   #56
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I'm also surprised by the length of this thread. OP doesn't seem to
Be convinced but no one has actually presented any math either. I will try later. OP give me a REASONABLE flop raising range. If it's not reasonable I'll make my own.
98, 88, 66, 55, 76, 75, JJ+

Also as an observation, I think his turn shove narrows that range down to 98, 66, 55, but thats irrelevant if we are not there yet and only considering what to do OTF.

by the way I didn't say I wasn't convinced. I actually started by thanking Willyoman and saying he had a good point about the flop play.

I guess being in the hand at the time, I really felt like I was beat when V raised the flop. Such a feeling doesn't exactly get you to think shoving is best, if you know what I mean.
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Old 01-24-2016, 05:48 PM   #57
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

If he has 76 he has 65. If he raises JJ+ on flop he doesn't slow down on the 2d turn.
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Old 01-24-2016, 05:52 PM   #58
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

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If he has 76 he has 65. If he raises JJ+ on flop he doesn't slow down on the 2d turn.
Right. But the debate seems to have become more about what to do on the flop rather than the turn.
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Old 01-24-2016, 05:54 PM   #59
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

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Originally Posted by sewktbk View Post

I guess being in the hand at the time, I really felt like I was beat when V raised the flop. Such a feeling doesn't exactly get you to think shoving is best, if you know what I mean.

I think this the real take away here. You also commented that you and your friends felt pot controlling to allow you to hero fold bad turns justified flatting flop raise as well. That's not how to make the most money with top set.

My observation is that villain's raise triggered a little MUBS and that's why we flatted leading to difficult decisions later and possible missed value.
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Old 01-24-2016, 05:59 PM   #60
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

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I think this the real take away here. You also commented that you and your friends felt pot controlling to allow you to hero fold bad turns justified flatting flop raise as well. That's not how to make the most money with top set.

My observation is that villain's raise triggered a little MUBS and that's why we flatted leading to difficult decisions later and possible missed value.
you are possibly right.
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Old 01-24-2016, 06:01 PM   #61
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

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I guess being in the hand at the time, I really felt like I was beat when V raised the flop. Such a feeling doesn't exactly get you to think shoving is best, if you know what I mean.
I know exactly what you mean but this is one of those times when you have to tell your emotions to STFU and just stick it in. It's important to make the most of fat value situations because this is where the bulk of our money comes from in soft games. Over the long term getting top set in OTF will print you money.
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Old 01-24-2016, 10:03 PM   #62
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

I think there are a lot of hands that you beat. Smaller sets and over pairs. And given your description of him as somewhat tight and straightforward you can take out 34 and 48 from his range, leaving only 89 having you beat. Seems like a pretty good spot to call. And you have equity against 89 as well. Seems like a good spot to call for all your money.
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Old 01-24-2016, 11:18 PM   #63
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

I think that range is way too narrow. You're telling me he won't raise with any of the gazillion draws on this board? And you don't think he would 3 bet preflop with JJ+? I think you should reconsider this range. As is I'll do some work with it.

others have mentioned already that your feelig that you were beat by one flop raise on a very connected board is just that. A feeling. It likely had no basis in reality but you let it affect the way you analyzed the situation to the point that you played in a decidedly suboptimal way.
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Old 01-24-2016, 11:45 PM   #64
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

I have lost track of how many times I 'felt sure' I was beaten but got the money in anyway because a fold would be bad and many of those times my emotions were completely useless and wrong. My conclusion is that logic and maths are more important than feelings in poker.
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Old 01-25-2016, 12:25 AM   #65
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

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My conclusion is that logic and maths are more important than feelings in poker.
/thread
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Old 01-26-2016, 11:42 AM   #66
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer View Post
I have lost track of how many times I 'felt sure' I was beaten but got the money in anyway because a fold would be bad and many of those times my emotions were completely useless and wrong. My conclusion is that logic and maths are more important than feelings in poker.
Haha, the number of times that I say, "I can't imagine I'm good here" while I toss out a calling chip, only to find that I am in fact good is so high that people in my game have started to think I'm an ******* who's like reverse congratulating myself for a good call.
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Old 01-26-2016, 01:13 PM   #67
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

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Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
Haha, the number of times that I say, "I can't imagine I'm good here" while I toss out a calling chip, only to find that I am in fact good is so high that people in my game have started to think I'm an ******* who's like reverse congratulating myself for a good call.
On the other hand, I'm sure you've all been in the situation where you throw in the chip with top set while saying "show the straight" and were right, like it happened here

Thankfully, I rivered a boat.
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Old 01-26-2016, 07:49 PM   #68
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

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Originally Posted by sewktbk View Post
98, 88, 66, 55, 76, 75, JJ+

Also as an observation, I think his turn shove narrows that range down to 98, 66, 55, but thats irrelevant if we are not there yet and only considering what to do OTF.

by the way I didn't say I wasn't convinced. I actually started by thanking Willyoman and saying he had a good point about the flop play.

I guess being in the hand at the time, I really felt like I was beat when V raised the flop. Such a feeling doesn't exactly get you to think shoving is best, if you know what I mean.
We really need to know if 98o, 76o, and 75o are in his range or just suited.
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Old 01-26-2016, 08:24 PM   #69
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

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Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
Haha, the number of times that I say, "I can't imagine I'm good here" while I toss out a calling chip, only to find that I am in fact good is so high that people in my game have started to think I'm an ******* who's like reverse congratulating myself for a good call.
LOL, same. Earned myself some dirty looks that way.
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Old 01-26-2016, 09:36 PM   #70
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

OK, here is the promised math. I had to make some assumptions-

1. Hero's range is accurate (I doubt it)
2. V is not playing unsuited connectors (I doubt it)
3. I came up with a continuing range vs. our shove. Changing that will alter things, but I don't think it changes the overall conclusions.
4. I didn't get into the EV calcs of various turn cards because I want to see my family before I die.

All of my assumptions will overestimate V's equity (except for 98o). If you widen his range, you're equity skyrockets.

Ranges:

Raising range: 98s, 55,66,88,76s,75s,JJ+ (42 combos)
Continuing range vs. shove: 98s, 55, 66, 76s, 75s, KK+ (24 combos)
Continues: 57% Folds: 43%

Pot: $119
To shove: $272
Won if called: $341
Lost if called: $222
To call: $50

Equity when called: 81.8%

EV if V folds: $119*0.43=$51.17
EV if V calls and we win: $341*0.818=$278.94
EV if V calls and we lose: $222*.182=-$49.50
EV if called: ($278.94-$49.5)*0.57=$130.78

Total EV of shoving: $51.17+$130.78=$181.95


TURN SCARE CARDS


Scare cards for hero: 's, 4,8,9=22
22/47 (47 unknown cards)= 47%

V's Range broken down
JJ=14.3% QQ=14.3% KK=14.3% AA=14.3% 88=14.3% 55/66=14% 76s/75s=5% 98s=9.5%

Scare Cards by hand (scare cards/45 unknown cards)
JJ='s,4,8,9,Q+ (62%) QQ='s,4,8,9,K+ (56%) KK='s,4,8,9,A (47%) AA='s,4,8,9 (42%) 88='s,T+ (56%) 55/66: 's,4,8,9 (42%) 76s/75s: 's,8,9 (42%) 98s: 's,5,6,7 (38%)

Percentage scare card hits and opponent holds each hand (likelihood of holding*likelihood scare card hits for that hand)
JJ=9% QQ=8% KK=7% AA=6% 88=8% 55/66=6% 76s/75s=2% 98s=4%

Sum equals likelihood scare card hits for villain: 50%

Likelihood scare card hits both by hand (shared scare cards/total V scare cards by hand):
JJ=68% QQ=76% KK=90% AA=100% 88=40% 55/66=100% 76s/75s=100% 89s=59%

Likelihood of both hitting scare card overall by hand
JJ=6% QQ=6% KK=6% AA=6% 88=3% 55/66=6% 76s/75s=2% 89s=2%

Sum equals likelihood scare card hits for both: 37%


Conclusion

1. Shoving flop is massively +EV in it's own right. Against what i consider a reasonable calling range given the orignal raising range provided, you can expect to win almost all of the money right then and there. If you remove the 2 pair hands that goes down quite a bit, but it's still pretty +EV.

2. As Dutchstreetfish said, literally half the deck is a scare card for villain. That's across his entire range too. Conversely almost half the deck is a scare card for hero as well. So that's 50% of the time you see a turn one of you is not going to be happy about putting the rest of the money in and based on the EV calc for the flop shove, that's catastrophic.

3. Over 1/3 of the time, neither one of you are going to want to put more money in the pot on the turn, which again is worst case scenerio based on flop EV. So without even getting into EV calcs for turn cards, it should be obvious that getting to the turn without all the money going in is vastly inferior.

4. I would discount QQ+ from his opening range since he'd probably 3 bet that some/most of the time. I'd also add at least the best draws as well as some of the unsuited connectors. This pumps up your flop EV even more.

5. Everyone who is serious about poker should be able to do this work. There's no excuse if you haven't learned how to work these things out. All I used was flopzilla and a calculator, but you could do this with nothing but a calculator and a simple equity program. There's no other concrete way to determine what plays are good and bad. In this instance, the "other players" OP consulted were dead wrong and he wouldn't know it if he didn't (or i didn't) do the math. So learn it. And do it.

6. If i made any clerical or math errors I apologize. I'm sure I did somewhere along the line.
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Old 01-26-2016, 09:53 PM   #71
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

Nice job spike!
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Old 01-26-2016, 10:24 PM   #72
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

Quick edit: Amount lost should be $272 not $222. Math was done using $272.
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Old 01-26-2016, 10:28 PM   #73
sewktbk
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

Thanks for this spike, that is the type of post I'm looking for!

double cheers
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Old 01-26-2016, 10:50 PM   #74
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

Spike, I'm just going through your post in detail, and can you explain where this calculation came from please? :

Equity when called: 81.8%

thanks
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Old 01-26-2016, 11:01 PM   #75
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Re: 1/2 top set on wet board facing reraise and a shove

That's equity vs. his continuing range, which I just realized is slightly off because I forgot to unclick a couple of buttons. That should be 79.1%. So, change the calculations slightly. Doesn't change the concept at all.
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