I'm posting this just to hear more thoughts on the hand, although i've already discussed it with other players and seemed to come to the same conclusion

1/2 local poker room

Villain is an older gentlemen, probably in his mid 70s. Stated earlier he has been playing poker for 60 years. First time playing with him, no special reads other than he has been playing very straightforward. Not a creative player by any means, as most players at these limits.

Hero has been card dead and has had to fold most hands he's played in the session and has reloaded. Has just won 1-2 pots, been playing for about 4 hours. Hasn't been in showdowns. bluffed once unsuccessfully, got called on the river in a relatively small pot and mucked. Thats all the info the table has on hero at this point. No history with any of the players.

Effective stacks $300

1 limp
Hero raises to $8 from MP with 77
CO (villain) calls
BTN calls
limper folds

3 way to the flop, ($29)

765

Hero cbets for $20
V raises to $70
BTN folds
Hero calls

($169)
Turn 2

Hero checks
V shoves and covers Hero's remaining $222

Hero?

thanks, cheers

I snap here, but I'm a gambler....

Snap call.

really gross spot here. I fold.

Pffff, old guy obviously plays 98 like this. Question is does he play anything else this way? I'm guessing 66/55 maybe 76/65 too. I doubt he does this with draws if he is ABC player. If he only plays 98s and not 98o then you're good to go. If he has 98o in his range then that's 16 combos of the nuts vs the slightly more of 2-pair/sets. With the dead money and outs vs straight you are still good to call the shove.

It is only if he plays 2-pair/sets passively in this spot that you should fold. I don't think you have enough info to think that and you under repped your hand so I think you have to call here.

Also imagine he was finding out where he was at with JJ/QQ on the flop and you just told him you have a draw?

I Don't think he has 98o in his range.
Also think he does this with 2-pair/sets.

I'm almost certain I would've seen a 3! pre if he had JJ+. Maybe even TT.

This is gross b/c old man could have QQ+, he could have 55,66, and of course 89 and whatever other cards make a straight.

He is playing this like he has a made hand and doesn't want the flush to get there, unfortunately, we beat enough of those made hands in addition to our FH outs to make a vomit a little in our mouth call.

then why post? if he doesnt have 98o he damn sure doesnt have 34 so you have the nuts facing an all-in bet.

you never said villain was an Old Man Coffee (OMC), but I think that's what a lot of posters will assume when they see "70 years old". If you're right that he's 3 betting 10s and Js then you call and feel great about it.

even if that's wrong, and villain at least had OMC tendencies, I still call and expect to see under sets, JJ, QQ most of the time, even KK if he's a proper OMC. no Ace on the flop!

If his range is 55,66,56,67,57, then why post? It's the easiest call in the world. If he 1 outered you on the river, sorry about that, but it's not an interesting hand. I don't think I could ever put somebody on such a narrow range, but if you do and believe it, gotta call before the echo of his all-in dies out.

Sorry, i take back what i said about 98o not being in his range. In hindsight this was not true at the time, and is a narrowing of his range i made after the fact. At the time the hand played, i could not have left it out of the possible hands he was holding.

My bad

3-bet shove the flop yourself. You have ~1 pot sized raise left.

On the turn, 8 spades put out a flush and 3 8's, 3 9's, 3 4's and 3 3's put out 4-straights.

That's 20 cards. And if villain is raising with something like TT (just an example, never a high likelihood), an enormous % of turn cards (3, 4, 8, 9, spade, J, Q, K, A) can scare him from giving you further value. When you shove the flop, villain can stack off with many worse hands including 33-44, 88+, two pair, worse sets, spade draws, and straight draws. 98/43 are possible, but you're just a 3:2 dog against those.

Why did you call the flop raise oop and check the turn to villain?

What was the plan for what turn cards?

This turn just happened to be a total blank (2d).

What were you doing ~40% of the time a flushing or straightening came on the turn? Were you going to check/fold to a turn shove on a spade? On an 8 or a 4? Would you give villain credit for every drawing out? Did you consider the possibility that if villain is drawing and misses on the turn, he can check the turn back to realize all his equity (some draws have ~40% equity), giving you no more value? Or that when villain has a worse made hand, even as strong as a low set, he might check behind scary turns and give you no more value? Or that with relatively shallow stacks, you'll sometimes have to stack off even when he may have made his hand?

As played... and I don't play it this way... it's obviously a super snap call.

^ totally agree and should have said in my first post, I'm 3bet shoving this flop.

Thanks Willyoman, good points about the flop play.

Really? In the games I play these straight-forward old man types might not even raise pre-flop with JJ/TT, let alone 3!

Yes I agree OMC's 3bet range is [AA]. Maybe [KK+] if he's steaming

OP, I'm assuming this V is old but not a nit?

Just shove the flop, calling is bad. Half the deck either kills your action or makes you hate life.

As played, snap call. Without the benefit of many many hours playing this guy, we have to assume he can do this with worse than made straights.

Grunch


3bet shove flop.


AP, snap call.

Correct

Grunch: why on earth would you flat? That was silly.

Even if V has the narrowest range we can put him on, 55-66 and 98 only, we have almost 53% equity in the pot. We only need 43% to break even. If we take bottom set out of his range, we still have 46% vs. a range of 66 and 98.

You just cannot ever fold here. Like ever.

Has anybody here ever folded top set OTF to what they thought was a straight?

Anyone?

Beat him in the pot and all the stuff Willy said.

It looks like you gave flop equity numbers, but the decision point is on the turn. On the turn we have 43% and 34% against those ranges, respectively.

Also, the breakeven calculation is incorrect. You did something like $169/($222+$169) I guess, when you need to do call/(call+pot). We only need 36% equity to break even.

Not me and not OTF, but yes. On a Q865r board. And it was a good fold (although he admitted he would've never folded against anybody else but that specific villain in that spot)

Anyway, it was never an option to fold OTF here. Our ranges become way too exploitable if we do.
Of course if we're not folding OTF, we're also never folding to a brick turn I guess....