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1/2 Top set on turned flush board 1/2 Top set on turned flush board

09-21-2014 , 01:14 PM
Hero is a young white hoodie wearing male. Hero is seen as a solid player by the table but has a losing image as he has lost two or three all ins while at the table and just an orbit or two ago lost a $400 pot when his middle set lost to an OESD that got there.

Villain is a bad recreational player. Has been playing a lot of pots, cold calling with medium to good hands and has shown a propensity to not want to fold. Multiple times he has agonized over folding and badgered the player who he folded against to tell him what he had. Villain is running extremely well and has himself been berated multiple times by two jerk regs for "sucking out" on them when in reality they themselves played the hands poorly.

Four limps to Hero in the SB ($180) who raises to $17 with JJ. Villain in the BB (covers) cold calls, and one limper who is a pretty big fish himself calls as well.

($51) J108 Hero bets $38. Villain moves a stack of chips out in front of him looking as if he is going to call, asks Hero why so much?, and then calls right after. Other player folds.

($127) 5. Hero has just about a psb behind, what is Hero's play here?
1/2 Top set on turned flush board Quote
09-21-2014 , 01:30 PM
Despite the scare card, this board is just too wet to check. If we were deeper we could b/f or maybe c/c but not here. V can easily have one big heart at this point. I think we gotta shove given eff stacks. We still get called by worse a lot (2 pair, combo draws etc.). Small chance we have FE against a straight but prob not. If he binked flush we still have 10 outs.
1/2 Top set on turned flush board Quote
09-21-2014 , 03:26 PM
What is the propensity of the V's to do when checked to? I would consider c/r OTF.

OTT, betting seems to be for protection, as I find it unlikely that worse value hands would both flat the flop and call a turn shove.

If we are resigned to playing for stacks, why not check and let V bluff at it or take a free card?
1/2 Top set on turned flush board Quote
09-21-2014 , 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheers4Booze
What is the propensity of the V's to do when checked to? I would consider c/r OTF.

OTT, betting seems to be for protection, as I find it unlikely that worse value hands would both flat the flop and call a turn shove.

If we are resigned to playing for stacks, why not check and let V bluff at it or take a free card?

Because you aren't the one that necessarily needs the free card.

Villains at LLSNL call too much. Never assume you can't get value here. I bet Ah or Kh calls turn shove regardless of what their other card is.

If V checks behind we risk another scare card hitting the river which may either improve him to the better hand OR risk scaring/losing value from his hands that would have called turn otherwise.

And as mentioned, worst case, we have 10 outs to the nuts.

If we were deeper, I'd advise differently, but with these stacks I think we just have to ship it.

Also - I POT flop with top set on this board. C/R is really bad.
1/2 Top set on turned flush board Quote
09-22-2014 , 02:33 AM
After reading your reply and taking another look at it I agree shoving turn to be the best move.

Would you consider this an accurate range for V?

99,AJs+,KJs+,QTs+,T9s,98s,AhTh,KhTh,AJo+,KJo+,QJo, T9o,98o

If we have a high confidence in V to bet OTF if checked to, why would it be bad to C/R? Seems like a perfect spot to me, particularly if we can get a caller in between we may be able to get stacks in OTF. I hate leading here only to have V1 flat and give V2 odds.
1/2 Top set on turned flush board Quote
09-22-2014 , 02:43 AM
We don't have high confidence Villain will bet if checked to.
1/2 Top set on turned flush board Quote
09-22-2014 , 01:36 PM
ship it. I'd love it if he called, (assuming no flush) but we still have outs.

If he folds, Im happy with the pot there.

If you check, he checks, and a 4th heart comes next, then what.

If you check, he checks, and the board pairs, he might fold his flush.

Im shoving
1/2 Top set on turned flush board Quote
09-22-2014 , 01:48 PM
AP, with stack size, shoving seems the only way. He probably wont pay you unless he improves on River (and then you are beat most times), so get it in now. Wouldve been much easier to do if you bet pot of bigger OTF.

Against these guys I bet pot OTF to look weak or drawy. It also still prices in the flush draws when you bet the rest OTT if the flush misses.

Tough spot, I don't like the speech .. hope you got your 5 on River. GL
1/2 Top set on turned flush board Quote

      
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