Hero (CO): mid 20s Asian, LAG image ($325)
Villain (BB): MAWG, fishy but not a super donator ($350)

Two limpers to hero who makes it $15 with A9. Yes it's loose but blinds are bad, limpers are bad and button is tight. I'll probably either get a heads up pot in position or take it down right there. Villain calls limpers fold.

Flop: T95 ($31)

Villain donks $20. Hero calls.

Turn: 9 ($69)

Villain bets $40. Hero raises to $105. Coulda raised a tiny bit bigger but this sizing lets me shove bigger on river.

River: J ($279)

Villain checks. Villain has about $185 behind. This seems like a really thin spot. 87s got there, KQ got there although that would be a horrible turn call (this is 1/2 so you never know). JJ got there, backdoored flushes got there. I just don't see how many worse hands can call. On the other hand, I expect all the flushes to bet out and the straights to bet out some % of the time. Also he might even bet out boats sometimes cause it's a scary river and he might not want me to take a free showdown as opposed to trying to trap me. It seems super thin and if I bet small to try to get a call out of a hand like AT or JTs could open up the door for him to bluff shove me off the best hand.

Hearts down worry me unless he had something else to go along with it. He can't have Txhh or 9xhh, so it's either 87hh, or KQhh or we the river didn't give him a flush.

Overpairs might bet/call the turn, can def donk the flop. Same for 87. I think any flopped set/turned boat would 3b the turn, So unless he has J9 were not losing to a full house.

I'd probably bet $50 here and fold of he shoves but it's close between checking and betting imo.

So he donks out, for most villains this would tell me that he has a decent 10 or a strong 9. I don't think most villains donk with the bottom end of an OESD. QJ I think would be more reasonable. 9h comes on the turn and that eliminates the possibility of him having a 9 and a flush draw. I think the only flush draw possible in this spot is exactly 78hh. On the river a Jh comes...it is possible that he holds JJ but I think most villains play JJ scared and would 3bet big pre to try to get you out of the hand. It is pretty easy to spot these types so you probably could easily figure if he had it. Like you said, not too worried about KQ as you said, unless he played it horribly. With all that being said, I would value bet the river. His likely holding is a 10, which he may or may not call with. QJ which he may or may not call with. Or a worse 9 which he would likely call with. Just how I think through a hand like this, feel free to tear it apart.

The $50 into a pot of $279 is also a good topic for debate, imo. I am on the fence about this one. Villain would easily call here with a 10 or a J. Although, if you are up against a super aggressive villain, they may sense this as extreme weakness and raise to try to get you off your hand. As opposed to a bet of say $120, I think a lot of villains would sigh call with a 10 or a J and would be much less likely to try to bluff you off the pot. In this spot, if they raise then it is a pretty easy fold. I would like to get everyone's thoughts.

Hero's SPR OTR is <1. If he bets anything less than all-in and villain check/shoves (I doubt a fishy guy has that in his arsenal), he's calling off his stack. If villain had shoved river putting hero to a decision, then I could possibly see a fold. But he didn't. He lead OTF and OTT, then slowed down OTR. My guess is villain is A10 - J10.

Personally, I would've raised a bit more OTT ($125-$135). OTR, I am shoving. If villain had 78 or KQ, he's shoving river putting hero to decision.

This isn't a read that gives us much to go on. Will he call with a T? a 9? Does he realize that the bdfd shouldn't help us too often, and be inclined to hero call? Does he know K9 or QQ is a bluff catcher on this runout? Or is he the passive, folds cuz draws got there type, meaning out bet will only be called by a straight or better? Would he fold bottom straight, heck would that even call the turn? Does he donk otf/ott to see where he's at, or to set his price on a draw?

By betting river, we either have a strong hand, or a missed draw...except that there are no missed draws. What could we be bluffing with? I'd think for most passive V's, all their T will find a fold, so you're really hoping he has a 9 or a horribadly played KK. I love thin vaule, but here, I think more than 50% of the time he calls, we're beat, so I'd find a disappointed check behind.

If you had Ah9x, this becomes a clear bet imo. AP, I lean towards small bet. People aren't turning hands into bluffs enough at LLSNL to not justify going thinnish for value. If our opponent never bluff raises here, which is probly somehere between very likely and likely, then valuebetting becomes significantly more attractive. Also, villains at these stakes have a propensity to lead their flushes OTR, although thats very opponent dependent, so you might be able to slightly discount those hands.

9Tcc 78hh maybe A5hh (unlikely) J9cc 55 (would he limp TT) are the realistic hands that we loose to. That's 7 likely combos.

If he's very fishy he's going to have an additional 2 J9o and T9o. 11 combos. So between 7-11 combos.

I expect that his sets and turned boats sometimes 3! Turn but not necessarily.

Given the pot I'm not sure we can make a meaningful enough bet to b/f. I mean 50 looks weak and will on occasion induce spazz. We will then be offered darn near 3:1 coming back kinda tough to b/f and with this runout he likely gets away from most Tx which leaves Q9 K9 97 hands and I really tend to weight his flop donk with more Tx than 9x.

So I agree with Irtm as far as a tiny bet to target JT/Tx hands (if he not a donator he should be folding naked Tx to a turn Raise/river bet unless it's a very small) but that bet gets so small that I'm not sure we can b/f.

I'm leaning toward checking this back now.




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