Reads: Villain in BB is a regular in the game based on table talk. He was up to 4x the max buy-in when I sat. He has since lost about half his stack, most of it when he flopped top set, bet pot-pot-pot and lost to running quads. He also correctly folded bottom set face up on a 8-9-10 flop when up against a straight and higher set. He seems to be playing extremely carefully since losing half his stack.

My image to villain is probably based on his seeing me make some overbet jams on turn as either a semi-bluff or with nutty hands. He seemed to think I should have slow-played the second nut flush on turn when I was min-raised with about 1.5x pot behind (I disagree completely).

Hero on Button ($340) dealt KJ
Villain in BB (maybe $400, has me covered)

Limped to me three ways and I overlimp. SB folds and BB calls.
Pot is $11 after rake.

Flop: AJ7 Checked to me and I check.
Turn: A Checked to me again. I think I have the best hand now and I bet $10, hoping to get called by draws or random pairs. BB calls and everyone else folds. Pot is $29 after rake.
River: 5 A complete blank. BB checks to me.

Do I bet for thin value here, planning to bet-fold, or just check it back?
I figure to get called by worse jacks (QJ, JT), maybe random pocket pairs or maybe K-high if he thinks I was semi-bluffing turn.

Thanks for any feedback.

This is an easy spot for value if u think he will call with weaker hands. As played, he is likely to not have much a lot of the time and weaker jacks and pairs some times. We would only check behind if villain was capable of making bluff check raises with air frequently, which does not look likely here. I would bet roughly 19 here. Bet/ fold is generally the line here. Although, against certain Lags, I might even bet/call.

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Bet $15-18 on river, you will get called by weaker Js, maybe a 7, and maybe 88-TT. Can't see V having an A here after checking three times.

You basically have the nuts here...this is not a thin value spot. It's a regular value be spot. It would be really strange for someone not to v-bet KJ here.

In order for you to be beat, villain has to have ace-X. There are many clues that he doesn't have this hand:

1. He didn't raise pre. He could have raised with some of the better aces like A9s+ or A10o+.

2. He didn't bet flop.

3. He didn't bet turn.

4. He didn't check/raise turn.

He's probably got either a weaker Jack, 7-X, some other pair, or a busted flush draw. Busted gutshot straight draw is possible as well.

Easy 15 dollar value bet and I'm not folding to a raise here either because his story would look pretty weak at that point. Like ben said you kind of have mortal nuts as played.

Raise pre to iso some random livefish and cbet / win money.

[ ] this spot is thin
[x] bet

Thanks for the replies everyone. I thought a value bet was pretty standard.

Results: I bet $20 into $29 on river and villain called with A3.

Him showing up with an Ace here really confused me, that's why I posted this hand. From what I'd seen earlier in the session, he was not a showdown monkey, he had played quite well IMO.

Maybe he correctly perceived that my river betting range was wider than my calling range and that I would never bet/call worse. Maybe he just wasn't thinking.

Two more questions: (1) is villain's line ever justifiable and (2) should I check back QJ or JT?

Again, thanks for the feedback and I apologize if this is a simple question. I am a beginning player just starting to play in casinos and trying to learn to beat these games for some side income.

Villain is a massive monkey who is allergic to money. He set a beautiful trap to get you to bet the river and could pop you and he calls?! What an idiot. You're fortunate to lose the little that you lost.

You should never check back there. $15 value bet on river is a good bet. $20 also qualifies.

Exactly

The only way I think Villain can justify this line is that there are 6 players to see a flop in what seems to be a pretty loose, passive game. V is likely scared that someone limped with a suited ace with a better kicker. Pretty timid certainly, but with six-players to a flop in a limped pot, trip aces with a weak kicker is far from the nuts.

If there had been a preflop raise, and fewer players to see the flop, taking this line with trip aces would be pretty awful, but OOP when you can't get a read on your opponents, I think it's perfectly fine. You could easily have an ace with a mediocre kicker (8,9, etc) and be betting here, so I think the villains line is perfectly justifiable.

Limped - multi way pots play very differently post-flop than raised pots. Expecting someone to treat trips, weak kicker,, like the nuts is not reasonable. If V had led out on the turn, would you have felt comfortable calling OTT and OTR? I feel like V may have gotten more value by check-calling than by betting. If your ready to take the hand to showdown with middle pair just because no one bet the flop in a big limped pot then you need to stop limping.

You have showdown value just check it back.

I definitely would not call turn and river. That's why I'm wondering if he actually took a line to get max value from a Jack in this spot. Based on my line it looks like we either have the same hand, I have him outkicked (A8, A9, AT), I ran into a boat with A5, or I picked up a draw on the turn and am betting river as a bluff.

That said, I'm not sure he was thinking this deeply. Earlier in the session, I had raised his river lead and forced him to fold. And he had been playing extremely carefully since losing half his stack to a massive top full house vs. quads cooler. I think he was basically just afraid of his massive winning session turning into a losing session.

Despite the result, I'm happy with my play here with KJ. I guess JT is a check back and QJ is borderline.

not this

Regardless of the results, I'm almost always checking back the river here. I think two streets of value is all your going to get out of a good opponent with middle pair, and sometimes you run in to trips. If the board was possible trips on board with two deuces, that's a different story. And too many players limp aces, especially Tags to make your river bet EV+. But, in some instances against a weaker player that does call down with middle pair often, I can see a value bet in that situation, or bet/fold to a raise. But, not against a player that can lay down bottom set on a coordinated board.

Thank you for your contribution to this thread.

2 streets of value implies we should be betting the river since we checked the flop?

OK I'll contribute

This is terrible advice. Villain has checked 3 streets. Against his range we should have the nuts a lot. If you can't bet in this spot you are leaving a lot of $$$ on the table. There are a ton of hands that will call us on the river and very few that beat us.