Hero $400~ mid 20s white male, reg, image on the LAG side. been opening and 3betting more than usual.

Villain $185~ 20s-30s white male. Have been playing with him for about 2-3 hours. He was up 200bbs at some point but lost a few big pots recently. He's playing a "reg fish" style, one where he isn't involved in too many pots but does some weird stuff sometimes. Seen him open T8s in early-middle position and flat my 3bet oop. Also called my pfr oop, a cbet and river <1/2p vbet on 842dd X K with a side pot and showed Th4h and lost to my KTdd. He seems to play his big hands fast, saw him b/cib on AQ4hh, x/shove on a heart turn with AxQx.


Villain ($185~) MP opens $10
Fish 1 ($100~) calls
Hero ($400~) BTN calls with T9
Fish 2 ($100~) in blinds calls

(Don't remember the exact stack sizes of the two fish besides the fact they weren't full 100bb stacks)


Flop ($40~) 762

Villain cbets $25
Fish 1 folds
Hero...

r-r-r-raise it up

I would make it about $80-90. If villain just flats our raise, turn play becomes tricky. I would probably jam most turns if checked to.

I would just call here, hero's draw isn't that good and villain seems the sort who doesn't like giving up a hand. If turn doesn't help hero and villain bets again, folding is probably the right choice. This is very much a villain specific read situation though. If you think you have some FE, then raising works also.

Villains range is overcards (people sometimes auto-cbet), FD, overpairs. We can Bet flop and turn as a semi-bluff. We can fold out a tonne of equity by raising.

I'd raise to 70, get it in on the flop if he wants... If he flats we can jam all turns.

Your main goal is to stay out of a bind. If you have a T9 and get in a real bind the way you are now, it's really hard to play. It's a really tough spot to be in when you need to hit a card in order to win. When you’re a holde’m player, you don’t get out and draw a lot of times. For big pots, big money, you've got to have a good hand. Usually got to have the best hand when the money moves in. If you'll get the best hand at the last card, you would have the worst hand until that card. You would have to outdraw the opponent to take the pot and the player who stays with the worst hand, with the hopes of catching a winner, is going to go broke.

Yes, you got some draw but you are still behind against a made hand no matter how you slice. You need another way out to win besides the draw. You cannot put all your money by shoving with a draw alone. But many people do just that and I see it every day dudes going bust.

AK

I love reading your posts and Imagining a 60 y.o. + man drinking his cocoa and folding his life away.

call preflop is kind of close.

shove flop (and yes, this kind of turns our hand face up) but who cares?. let's look at the other alternatives:

1: We call flop, blind folds, we miss on turn, and villain bets $70 into us. Against QQ, we're 27% on turn. If villain bets 70$, we're only gettin 2.28 to 1 odds, meaning we need 30.49% equity to break-even. Yes, we'd probably get all of it on river diamond/8 but.. what if villain makes an over bet shove? Then we have to fold.

2: We call flop, blind calls, diamond hits, and then we get stacked with flush over flush from blind (who would not call a shove flop (barring he has some huge draw to go with it)

3: We make it $80, villain calls. Pot is $200. We brick turn, and villain shoves into us. $100 to call to win $300. Need 25% equity. If villain has a range of :

Board: 7d 6d 2h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.273% 72.27% 00.00% 1431 0.00 { 66+, 76s }
Hand 1: 27.727% 27.73% 00.00% 549 0.00 { Td9d }

We are getting that price, but at a huge variance swing.

Maybe it is correct to call here since there are plenty of bluffing cards on turn and/or river.

I think if I was to raise the flop, I'd just shove.

Raise. Get more money in with good draw with two cards coming and fold out some hands that beat us.

Calling only lets us win small when we do hit. It keeps weak hands in his range that won't call if we hit.

We are not that deep I don't hate folding this preflop.

We are very likely to have 12 clean outs here (Any flush/8), and there is a small chance a 10 or 9 is good too.

V just opened for 10 and continued with a half pot bet. While he could be strong, this really tells you nothing other than he has 2 cards that he thinks don't suck. There is nothing about this play screaming strength, and so it seems like a good spot to attack.

If you are going to play this hand, I think you have maximum equity by semi-bluffing.

I would personally make it 90, and expect to fold out anything other than JJ+, 76, 66/77/22, and you might even convince him to fold KdXd depending how weak he plays.

If he calls, shove any good turn, take a river card for free if possible when you miss. I would not fire a 2nd barrel if he flats and checks because he has so little left he is basically pot-committed at that point.

I estimate you probably have about 40% fold equity with this play, and your actual equity in the hand pushes your overall EV well into the positive range.

Normally I don't like min-raising, but this seems like a great spot for it given stack sizes and potential fold equity on the turn. If he calls a min-raise there will be $140 in the pot with V having $135 left on the turn, leaving a good size to shove and get most of his medium-strength hands to fold. The only hands you really have to worry about not folding turn are sets, QQ+ (unless an ace hits and they have QQ/KK) and AJdd+, but even the AJdd+ hands could fold to a turn shove if the turn bricks.

Raising to $80-90 is going to commit all of his overpairs and force hero to get it in on the turn with zero FE if V flats, but V will usually recognize that size raise as a shove or fold spot.

Starpoker, you've pretty much stated my thoughts on this hand verbatim, except I raised to $75 which may or may not be enough. The reason I posted this hand is because I discussed this hand with a very solid poker buddy of mine and he advocated a call because to him raising doesn't accomplish anything here and he says I have little FE. I don't think that's true since this guy is capable of opening light and has cbet his fair share, besides I have about 50%+ equity vs his calling range which IMO is a very clear semi bluff spot with most of my equity being on the flop. If I just called the flop I might have to fold quite a few turns and may not even get paid when the obvious flush comes in.

Anyway for those who want results, he called after thinking for a minute, turn came a T and i shoved 110~ into 200~, he snapped with black AA and held.

wj I actually did think about minraising here for the same reasons you described. It's a pretty sexy play, actually. However, I don't think villain folds overpairs to a turn shove though vs me so I think I'm better off fastplaying my hand otf and potentially see a free river while still threatening his stack.

I think the problem with raising half his stack is he is committed whether he calls flop or shoves, so as played with the $75 flop raise I would have checked back the turn and given up on a bricked river (obv shoving any trips, two pair, straight, or flush). Checking back turn looks like a bluff gone wrong since any value hands are going to shove turn.

yeah, I was actually planning on checking blank turns but with the T I think I'm now ahead of a fair amount of hands that he could continue with and I wouldn't be surprised if he called with worse.

Is it more than 50%? If not, don´t bet, your draw just improved so take it for free.

like.. what hands?

i guess not too many, maybe some 99 88 TPTK kind of hands. What about his draws? Although I do feel like his range might be skewed toward made hands, I've seen him bluff river in a 3b pot with missed FD on Ahi board. I'm not sure how to feel about folding all blank rivers for 1/2p.~ I am about 50% against his range ott.

Hand 0: 48.841% 48.77% 00.07% 33314 49.00 { Td9d }
Hand 1: 51.159% 51.09% 00.07% 34898 49.00 { 66+, 22, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, A7s, Ad2d, KdQd, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 54s }

this is another way out, it is called fold equity? ever use it?

K9ds

I think the 75 is fine because most of the time, it will take it down. The issue is once he calls, you have to give him credit for at least an overpair, making the turn shove incorrect. At that point, I would take the free card if possible and hope to spike gin, because you are behind.

Granted, you still have equity, but not enough to make the shove correct.

Yea I like wj idea in this hand. I pretty much never implement the min-raise but this seems like a good spot to do it. I think either min-raise or just shove the flop. Raising to 75-100 puts us in a terrible spot imo if he does anything other than fold. If he shoves over top of that then what? We can't fold now. And when he shoves with his K or A high flush draw and King high takes down a 400+ pot I want to puke.

I think shoving over his c-bet is the best way to maximize our FE and it possiblly might get A high and K high flush draws to fold. Min-raising to get a free card then checking back the turn is also an interesting play here. I really think raising to 75-100 is our worst option with these stack sizes.