Hey guys! hope all is well

Hero/BB(300) Young 20s whitey kid, probably viewed as LAG by the Villian, we have a small bit of history in where I had taken him off of a few pots and such.

Villian/Btn(350) Good thinking TAG player, pretty snug preflop and can make big folds. Playing slightly passive on this particular day.

4 limps and V makes it 15

Hero in BB with AQ flats

others fold and heads up flop

Flop(39) 942

Check-check

Turn(39) 3

V bets 20
Hero?

Anyone trying to take this guy off his hand?

Naw... I'd let it go. You could put in a raise to $60, to try to win a $60 pot...oop on an dry board... not seeing it as +EV.

You could try to c/call him down, but sucks being OOP if he plays it hard, you could easily be behind his range here. Is it worth paying to see if you bink a 5, A, or Q, pretty iffy.

I'm not liking trying to pull a steal here.

I actually like a c/r here occasionally. He's cbetting all OP's and all TP's OTF iyam, and he can easily check back Ax since he has showdown value. A c/r may get him to fold worse, but it may get him to fold better as well (A2-A4, 66-88). And it's an easy snap-fold if he 3bets. If he calls I'm reevaluating river to decide on betting or not. Most likely it's a 1/2-2/3 PSB OTR.

I'd likely 3bet pre.

As played, fold.

Call.

Depends on what I think his raising range is, but it is a raise or fold. If he's snug and position unaware, I'd lean towards fold.

Villain being TAG, I don't mind the the call pre. But 3-bet would probably be best. That gives you control on the flop to c-bet.

But as played, I would fold to his bet. We called his raise pre, didn't try to take it on the flop. Unless we're hitting a Q ott, i'd fold. c/call an Ace ott.

I think Villain can easily have a PP or AK in this spot. In which case, we're behind nonetheless. There's better spots, folding and letting Villain take this pot is fine imo. If we were to go fighting for this pot, we should have preflop.

Make it 3bet with AQ preflop instead trying to steal it on the turn after both of you have checked the flop. What you trying to represent on the turn that you didn't have it on the flop?

the way this hand was played it has got to be folded now on the turn.

What range are you giving V? Table dynamics dictate how often a TAG raises limpers from the button. And you said he wasn't so aggressive today, so how many hands is he raising that AQ is beating?

I'm probably folding pre.

Even if you're ahead of his range, it's going to be pretty difficult to get a lot off of him. Same reasoning that goes into not necessarily mining from the blinds: oop.

Raise or fold pre. As played turn is an easy fold. Raising in this spot is just FPS.

BTW, you are essentially asking should we bluff raise villain off an overpair. No, we should not be bluff raising any villains off an over pair at this level on this board.

Bet/fold 20 on turn.
AP: fold.

Difficult to imagine villain wouldn't have bet a pair otf. Not out of the question he is slowplaying a set, but if he is really a TAG, I doubt it. I think it is more likely he is stabbing at the pot, possibly having picked up a backdoor flush draw or, like hero, a gutshot.

I think the real options here are:
1. Fire at the turn to represent a missed check/raise. (Helps if you have a history of check-raising because villain isn't likely to think that trey helped you very much.)
2. Float the turn hoping to fire at a diamond otr (at risk of value-owning yourself).
3. Fold.

I kinda lean towards floating the turn. AQ has some showdown value. I think your six outs are probably good. And if you think villain is capable of folding something like 88 if you bet a flush board, you're gtg. (A lot depends on how much you've been making goofy plays up to this point.)

Suffice to say I hate the bluff-check-raise ott. You might get away with it because this guy is pretty passive. But he's gonna know you have your hand in the cookie-jar, and will assume, probably correctly, that if you keep playing like this, you will spew off your chips eventually.

This hand really looked to me like AK/AQ/KQ or similar hand that decided to do some delayed c-bet. I think V knows I will check raise this flop at a high freqeuncy and was prehaps pot controling. I can't imagine why he would check back an OP?

I can't imagine why he would bet AK/AQ/KQ on the turn. What better is he getting to fold and what worse is he expecting to call. Not saying he wouldn't but it doesn't make a ton of sense either. I understand he may be protecting his hand but he is really just protecting it against 6 outs and there are a lot of hands that you check on the flop that beat AK.

I understand that live low stakes is all about taking people to value town but if I'm against a good thinking villain then I'm ok with checking this flop for several reasons.

1) Makes it difficult for villain to steal
2) Allows us to get 2 streets of value. I don't expect to ever get 3 streets of value here.
3) It keeps the pot relatively small which is good because we only have a 1 pair hand.
4) It allows villain to value-own himself.

The higher our pocket pair the less risky checking the flop is.

Agree 3b depending on v's opening range. Prefer bet/fold pot ott.