Quote:
Originally Posted by GrindPokerAllDay
BTW, you are essentially asking should we bluff raise villain off an overpair. No, we should not be bluff raising any villains off an over pair at this level on this board.
Difficult to imagine villain wouldn't have bet a pair otf. Not out of the question he is slowplaying a set, but if he is really a TAG, I doubt it. I think it is more likely he is stabbing at the pot, possibly having picked up a backdoor flush draw or, like hero, a gutshot.
I think the real options here are:
1. Fire at the turn to represent a missed check/raise. (Helps if you have a history of check-raising because villain isn't likely to think that trey helped you very much.)
2. Float the turn hoping to fire at a diamond otr (at risk of value-owning yourself).
3. Fold.
I kinda lean towards floating the turn. AQ has some showdown value. I think your six outs are probably good. And if you think villain is capable of folding something like 88 if you bet a flush board, you're gtg. (A lot depends on how much you've been making goofy plays up to this point.)
Suffice to say I hate the bluff-check-raise ott. You might get away with it because this guy is pretty passive. But he's gonna know you have your hand in the cookie-jar, and will assume, probably correctly, that if you keep playing like this, you will spew off your chips eventually.
Last edited by AbqDave; 04-06-2014 at 08:51 AM.