Hero is playing at a loose passive table that likes to limp/call. Hero is stuck about $300 due to a luckbox sitting on $1200 that sucked out on river and hit 2p. Hero is playing fairly tight PF, but due to the looseness of the table has probably opened his range up a little more than TAG would indicate.

Hero is in BB with A9. Effective stacks of $225

MP limps (recently came from black-jack, pure rec player)
CO limps (luckbox from before, plays ATC)
BTN limps (average player, has been up and down all night, no crazy bad plays but folds a little too often and overvalues TPWK)
SB completes (slightly less nitty than OMC, doesn't play many hands)

Hero raises to $15

Thoughts?

MP calls $15
CO calls $15
BTN calls $15
SB calls $15

Pot: $70

Flop: 4 9 K

SB checks
Hero bets $50
MP calls $50
CO tank calls $50
BTN tank folds
SB folds

Pot: $220

Turn: 2

Hero moves AI for $160
MP calls $160
CO tank folds

Pot: $540

River: 7

Thoughts? I'm not going to get too into ranges here because I think hands like these sort of play themselves out. Am I wrong for trying to GII with monster draws like these? By my count, I've usually got 14 live outs most of the time (9 flush draw, 3 Aces, two 9's: maybe discount the A ever so slightly since V may have AK). I've been playing my monster draws aggressively like this and unfortunately I keep ****ing bricking them but is this the right way to play them or is it too high variance?

Against MP I'd rather take a free card after getting called on the flop. He's never folding TP or a set nor do we want him to fold a gutter like JT, a worse FD or a worse 9. There is a good enough chance this particular villain has a marginal hand where we can still get value if we hit while having a lot of SDV.

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Our line on the turn here is probably the "high variance" line.

Between our draws and the ability of Villain to NOT have a king, we might have some decent fold equity here. Just because Villain didn't fold this time should not discourage us from counting fold equity in future hands.

I disagree. We have little to know FE versus a pit player. They are here to make with the gambols. We will have better spots to get at villains' stack, this is fairly marginal.

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Our equity is greatly reduced on the turn. A shove on the turn should only be employed if we think better hands may fold. Unfortunately, in live low stakes this is rarely the case. Against these mouth breathers just check and see if you get a free/cheap river.

BTW, don't raise this hand pre. You're just bloating a pot OOP with a reverse implied odds hand and getting yourself into marginal spots like this. Suited aces play very well multiways. Lets just see a flop and not start shoveling money in until we have a decided equity advantage.

Yes on further thought c/c the turn seems like a better play as it gives me a chance at a free card and with a bet/call it's most likely giving me the proper odds to draw assuming rec-player V doesn't go AI on the turn.

im not raising pre... lead flop, lead turn and x/f river.

that's one of the best flop for A9, most of the times we don't know where we are even with TP and with us OOP on a limp/calling dynamics, i will just check my options.

For the people advocating just checking pre, is it because you don't believe we are ahead of the tables' limp range because 1/2 players like to do things like limp AT, AJ and occasionally AQ?

We don't always have the luxury of playing in position, but if I rate to have the best hand at the moment, shouldn't I be raising to take down the pot or isolate vs. someone who is likely behind?

I understand the merits for checking as A9s can easily be a RIO hand but this seems to be awfully close to the grey area where raising pre can be acceptable.

For me its a combination of your first question of them limping with better aces and the fact that you mention them as limp callers. Most times this wont take it down or isolate anyone with the villains you describe. It's usually just going to build a pot OOP.

You have a good multi way hand so its not terrible but you will have to c/f lots of flops and proceed cautiously of you flop 1 pair.

I strongly believe if you want to raise this in the SB behind so many limpers you should make it much larger to hopefully get it heads up or fold everyone out. Some games that's 21 other games up to 31. standard raises like 12-15 are just juicing the pot for everyone.

As played, I think I like the line, save the turn. I think once two players call there's definitely a K out there and you just missed your turn draw. You check and someone could bet as small as 100 so you call and check/fold the river. If you hit, they're definitely calling river. With two callers on the flop you just don't have enough fold equity to justify shoving. It may even check through, you're pretty much wanting to see the next card as cheaply as possible after two callers I feel. Maybe if this was heads up against the ATC player then I'd like it more.

Grunch,
At these tables opening up your PF limping range can be the correct adjustment, but usually your better off opening up your raising/3! range.

I hate the PF raise. And I'd rather CRAI or lead pot OTF. That said your line isn't that bad excluding the PF raise.

Yes, your ahead of rando limping ranges. But there's a lot of money behind, hence ppl saying raise more PF or check. The problem is that people are limping AJ in these games, and that you're outta position in the hand.

Hand strength is important but at the end of the day position is even more important than relative hand strength. A9cc is ahead of most limper's range but we will likely be playing out of position on each consecutive street meaning we will be making decisions with less knowledge than our opponents will have when they make their decisions. This will put us at a severe disadvantage.

Plus it's very difficult to barrel at this level. When we miss we often have to just give up. Add to the fact that our hand has reverse implied odds vs many hands that are likely to call a raise and a suited ace plays better multiways, raising this pre actually accomplishes the opposite of what we would like to accomplish.

I like that you want to take the initiative in this hand. However, I would just advise that you do so more in spots where you are likely to maintain a positional advantage.

Let's say I check from the BB. Pot is $10 on the flop. How are you proceeding to GII with this massive draw? I would need someone to overbet, call, call and then me CR to build the pot to a sufficient level to GII.

1. Raising 15 over 5 limpers is way too small. Needs to be 25 minimum. A better play is just to take your BB option.

2. Given your tiny Preflop sizing, I would prefer to check this flop, unless we have reads that Vs will fold to a flop cbet.

3. Turn shove is pure spew.

4. Pair + NFD is not a monster draw. This I think is the most flawed part of your hand (aside from not ranging Vs). Your "monster draw" led you to seriously overplay your hand.

5. Never disregard ranges for Vs. This is how fish play, and why they don't consistently win.

I think it's important to note that while our equity is good here and we are generally happy to get it in here, that shouldn't be our sole purpose. The reason being that we are in a 50/50 coin flip vs top pair and are only 30% vs a set.

The reason a check raise can be good is because we can take dead money down without a showdown. Depending on the action it may actually fold out smaller flush draws though which is the main portion of the range we want to get it in with.

I would rather lead this flop, which out of the bb represents a lot of top pair and two pair type of hands. This also gives our opponents a chance to make a mistake and raise us with a flush draw. Hands like QJ/QT/JTcc are all combo draws that can be overplayed by our opponents. Some bad opponents may even raise us with low flush draws and get it in nearly drawing dead. Then of course there are the scenarios where players just call us and if we improve we will continue to bet and get value from lower made hands...and again some lower flushes may actually raise us when they hit considering our range contains a lot of holdings they are ahead of (and may want to protect against). Sometimes we will miss our flush draw and still win at showdown vs worse draws. Sometimes our opponent will raise us with a hand like a set and incorrectly give us the right implied odds to draw. Of course, a lot of times we will miss altogether which is ok as long as we were putting money in when we had good equity.

Lead flop for $10-15, hope for a few calls and a raise, then 3!?