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1/2 spread limit: call or fold

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11-29-2018 , 04:19 PM

tracktardicus

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 38

1/2 100 spread limit cash game. Only info on villain is she check called light to the river against an aggressive player. I'm new to the table, so no table image that I know of. I have $320, villain has me covered.
mid position limps, I raise 5x in HJ with QQ, SB calls, BB calls, mid folds. 5x is a normal raise size on this table. Pot=$33.

QJ5 rainbow, BB checks, I bet $15, SB folds, BB calls. Pot $63
Turn is a 10, no flush draws. BB checks, I bet $40, BB check raises the full spread amount of $100. Action?

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11-29-2018 , 04:31 PM

mdelore

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,315

Put sixty more dollars in the pot

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11-29-2018 , 04:35 PM

tracktardicus

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 38

It will be $100 to call.

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11-29-2018 , 04:36 PM

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,760

Can you raise? Never folding, so might as well get as much as you can in now.

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11-29-2018 , 04:37 PM

mdelore

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,315

One typically says V check raises to $140 in that case. Still calling.

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11-29-2018 , 04:44 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

3-bet. He's extremely unlikely to fold and if we call and he checks river we can't stack him. I see no reason to slow-play.

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11-29-2018 , 04:52 PM

mdelore

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,315

Given the description V has all combos of AK, potentially K9s here (20 combos). It doesn't make sense to c/r turn with at most 1 QJs and 2 JTs since we can have straights ourselves. JJ and 55 are drawing close to dead. I'm not exactly loving this spot and excited to shove money in.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

1,276 trials (Exhaustive)

board: Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AK, Ks9s, Kh9h, Kd9d, Kc9c, JJ, 55, QdJd, JhTh, JcTc, QdTd	53.76%	686	0
QhQs	46.24%	590	0

I expect no significant semibluffs from V given her description as a station.

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11-29-2018 , 05:06 PM

tracktardicus

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 38

Extremely helpful analysis, thanks! I took the aggressive line of reraising $100 and calling her rr for all the chips, thinking the most likely holding would be 10 J or a set. Villain tabled AKs for the nuts. I made the error of thinking BB would rr with AK out of position multiway preflop. I'm not in the habit of folding sets without specific indicators telling me otherwise, but your hand analysis puts it into perspective that a more conservative and profitable line might be to call and re-evaluate on the river. Still uncertain I could ever fold.

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Originally Posted by mdelore

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

1,276 trials (Exhaustive)

board: Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AK, Ks9s, Kh9h, Kd9d, Kc9c, JJ, 55, QdJd, JhTh, JcTc, QdTd	53.76%	686	0
QhQs	46.24%	590	0

I expect no significant semibluffs from V given her description as a station.

Last edited by tracktardicus; 11-29-2018 at 05:14 PM.

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11-29-2018 , 05:10 PM

mdelore

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,315

If she's playing all the offsuit combos of QJ and JT then the numbers are going to wind up different but the fact is there are fewer combos of the sooteds on rainbow boards.

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11-29-2018 , 06:53 PM

#10

josofo

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 653

Quote:

Originally Posted by tracktardicus

you played it fine, just a cold deck

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11-29-2018 , 06:59 PM

#11

CallMeVernon

COTM Crusher

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 4,086

Bet bigger on the flop and you won't have this problem.

Also, where did this hand take place? I wonder if I have played with the Villain.

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11-29-2018 , 08:24 PM

#12

mikko

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 2,863

Cold deck. Betting bigger won't save ya either. Hard enough to get calls with top set.

When we severely cut down hands that will continue. They are mostly weighted towards draws. When we are raised it is either made draw or set over set (especially on this board).

Also curious where hand was played

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11-29-2018 , 11:31 PM

#13

mdelore

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,315

I weight V more toward the AK K9 category because a decent amount of the time we are raised on the flop with a set. Against a half pot bet I don't see a lot of slowplays from the population with JJ, 55. 6 combos of sets and 20 of AK, I don't get why we think set of set is more likely than a station calling with over(s) and a gutshot.

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11-30-2018 , 12:43 AM

#14

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by mdelore

That's 16 combos of AK if you don't discount it at all, which we should based on pre-flop action, but if we're discounting AK we should probably discount JJ, too.

It's fairly common for sets to be slow-played, especially without a flush draw available on the flop.

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12-06-2018 , 01:10 PM

#15

tracktardicus

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 38

Hand took place at Ameristar in Blackhawk, CO. I would argue betting more would scare away many hands I want to stay in, especially with the nuts. Anyone calling half-pot is still -EV for them with my holding. I still think the best line is to call V's CR and re-evaluate on the river. Considering this is spread-limit I don't envision ever folding. If it were no limit and we were much deeper, I think you would have to consider a check-fold to a shove.

Last edited by tracktardicus; 12-06-2018 at 01:16 PM.

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12-06-2018 , 01:55 PM

#16

CallMeVernon

COTM Crusher

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 4,086

Quote:

Originally Posted by tracktardicus

I would argue betting more would scare away many hands I want to stay in, especially with the nuts. Anyone calling half-pot is still -EV for them with my holding.

This hand is actually a counterexample to that, as you did give Villain a +EV call with a gutshot. Also, just because you have the nuts now does not mean you will by the river, and in fact it is pretty likely that your hand will not be the nuts by the time you get to the river.

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12-06-2018 , 02:07 PM

#17

Nepeeme2008

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 2,913

I would argue, betting more on the flop will achieve your end goal of getting more money in faster. We're never folding this hand anyway.

This villain type will never re raise A K, or JJ or even Queens for that matter.

At the end of the day, either way, the money's going in anyway.

I'd go broke with this hand all day and never give it a second thought.

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