Hi everyone, I've thoroughly read through the stickies as I have not posted on 2p2 anywhere since Black Friday-ish.

1/2 NL Full Ring Live @ PA/Sands

Limited history with Villain ($300 effective stacks)
Villain opens UTG $12
Button calls
Hero calls BB w 4c3c

Flop: Kc 10c 7x

Hero checks, Villain bets $20, Button folds, Hero calls

Turn 5x

Hero checks, Villain bets $40, Hero raises $228 and is all in...

At the time I had a general range for Villain as AA/KK,AKss - A10ss, some QQ/JJ, some KQ,KJ,K10, some A9ss,QJss,89ss.

What adjustments should there be in the future? Is my line too polarized towards sets? Do i really get a lot of value hands to be folding? I thought so but obv looking for perspective. Thanks!

You're OOP on the flop which is probably the most dynamic flop ever created by man where absolutely no set/2 pair is going to slow play (or at least shouldn't, and shouldn't be perceived to slow play) so when you jam this turn you're saying you have... exactly the type of hand you have. Maybe K5 suited. I'd probably call turn but I can see an argument for folding.

Side note: this is a gorgeous spot if there ever was a spot for villain to overbet the turn

Folding this pre. 43cc is effectively a suited one gapper, as it has nearly the same % chances of flopping straights, open enders, & double gutters as those do. Don't see a point to playing this OOP without much of a read.

Myself, I'm just calling flop & turn being offered nearly 2 to 1 on both streets, and adding a gutshot OTT. But let's explore the turn shove with a bit of math, shall we? I will assume $5 has been raked out of the pot for realism purposes :

On the turn, before any betting, the pot is $72 ($37 pre, $40 in on flop, -5 rake) ; Villain bets $40 ($112 pot), and we shove all in for $268 total. If V folds, we win +$112. If V calls, the final pot with be a total of $608.

To figure out our equity when called, we obviously need to give him some sort of calling range. Against { Sets, AA, AK, KTs }, we are 25.45%, or have $154.74 equity in the pot, which means we are losing (268-154.74) = losing $113.25 on our turn betting when he calls off with this range.

The math more or less becomes whether or not you think villain is higher than 50% to fold or not. This determines only whether the shove is break even or not, not whether it was your best option, though. It should be rather easy to prove your FD + gutshot is +EV to just call with on the turn.

Another thing to consider is what kind of line you would take with the strong hands you're representing, like KT, K7s, TT/77. The flop is super coordinated with lots of straight & flush draws. It may make this semi bluff unconvincing to certain players, so keep that in mind!

Calling the idiot end of the straight draw that completes one of the SC OESD's and a 4-hi flush draw a combo draw is a bit of a stretch.

The story doesn't add up for sets/two pair, as you're c/r this flop with those.

Also that's a big open to call with a low end SC OOP to two players.

In other words, total spew.

Well taken, I think in the future, it's definitely a fold pre flop. Also, to be honest with myself that at the turn, I knew I wanted to represent strength but that strength is pretty narrowed to 77/55.

I made the shove turn play thinking I'd get an OK amount of folds. There lies the issue.

FWIW, he tanked for 2-3 minutes before calling with QJss. We both rivered flushes!

Appreciate the feedback all.

Can you please elaborate on the side note: turn overbet? With your value hands only?

Good spot for villain to overbet the turn with a wide variety of holdings, including his "bluffs", because you should never have sets/2pair so your range hates a large size with this many bbs left.

What would you do if you had KJ and villain bet $120 on the turn? What about A3cc? What about 87cc? Sucks doesn't it.

It's a delicious overbet spot for villain.