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<img /2 - Snap Called Flush Draw Shove: Was His Shove -EV? <img /2 - Snap Called Flush Draw Shove: Was His Shove -EV?

04-05-2014 , 04:44 PM
Table has been very loose preflop. Standard raise size of $12-$15 is getting 2-5 callers every hand.

Effective stacks $265
V1 has a stack of $700 and has been overly loose and aggressive

Hero on button dealt Q8

UTG limps
MP limps
Hero (Button) raises to $12
SB calls $12
BB calls $12
UTG calls $12
MP calls $12

(as soon as I made my raise to $12 I knew it was gonna be too small to thin the field)

Pot: $55

Flop: 8 8 2

checks around to Hero
Hero bets $45
SB C/R AI for $253
folds back to Hero
Hero snap calls

Turn: T

River: K

Final Pot: $560

I personally thought it was a poor shove by V with only $100 in dead money in the pot. How much dead money (or more accurately, the ratio of dead money to effective stacks) in the pot does he need to make that play +EV assuming Hero is calling every time? (I bet $45 into $55, I'm not going anywhere).
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04-05-2014 , 04:54 PM
His shove isn't terrible if it gets you to fold an overpair. If he raises a normal amount he has odds to call any shove from you. This is one of the reasons raising on the button with these hands is profitable. Villain never had you on 8x and way over estimated his fold equity. You just got unlucky.
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04-05-2014 , 05:03 PM
I believe your math is off a bit.

After the flop and your bet on the flop, his shove is an additional $208 back to you into a pot of $145. If he believes he has some degree of FE and also plans on not folding if you shove, then his shove is correct as any raise size commits him to the pot.

Spewy? A bit. I will say that you can spend your time doing things that will help your game more than trying to decide what equity he needs in a fairly useless spot.
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04-05-2014 , 05:13 PM
This is incredibly results-oriented.

You are 100% focused on actual hands.

You need to consider ranges.

Of course hero isn't calling every time. You're opening Q8s pre, you're probably opening a ton of other junk that you will c-bet/fold some % of the time, even multi-way.

You got all-in as a ~75:25 favorite.

That means you lose 25% of the time.

Stop worrying about how poorly you think villains are playing.

I think I captured everything.
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04-05-2014 , 05:22 PM
Probably Standard. Willyoman is correct. Villian assumed he had FE plus his outs and with the relatively dryness of the board you could be C-Betting anything in his mind. #Ontothenext
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04-05-2014 , 05:23 PM
What was villains cards?
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04-05-2014 , 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigSkip
I believe your math is off a bit.

After the flop and your bet on the flop, his shove is an additional $208 back to you into a pot of $145.
I meant when he moved all in there was $55 Flop Pot + my $45 bet for $100 in dead money. He moves AI for $700 but my remaining effective stack is $208 at that point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
This is incredibly results-oriented.

Of course hero isn't calling every time. You're opening Q8s pre, you're probably opening a ton of other junk that you will c-bet/fold some % of the time, even multi-way.
I don't care about the results. How am I being results oriented? The question I really want to know the answer to so I can possibly incorporate it into my play is:
Quote:
How much dead money (or more accurately, the ratio of dead money to effective stacks) in the pot does he need to make that play +EV assuming Hero is calling every time?
And no, FWIW, I generally don't c-bet whiffed flops multiway.
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04-05-2014 , 06:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
I meant when he moved all in there was $55 Flop Pot + my $45 bet for $100 in dead money. He moves AI for $700 but my remaining effective stack is $208 at that point.
That's my point. He moved all in for $208. He couldn't lose any more than that.
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04-05-2014 , 06:17 PM
You want to understand under what conditions it's correct to shove a draw with 0 fold equity into a strong made hand so you can incorporate it into your game?
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04-05-2014 , 06:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
You want to understand under what conditions it's correct to shove a draw with 0 fold equity into a strong made hand so you can incorporate it into your game?
No I suppose in actuality your FE in a given hand will depend on the V and "made hand" can be anything from an underpair to overpair to trips.

In this situation I believe V also thought his overcards represented live outs so in that sense, as Koss alluded to, I believe he overrepped his FE.

I'm not looking for a blueprint I'm just wondering what types of ranges and board textures + dead money can give you a sense of a nut draw shove being +EV using this particular hand as a barometer and starting point to work off of.
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