Hero($340ish): 20 year old male, look younger. Been playing pretty tight, not getting many good hands. Table of mostly unknowns and I haven't taken down any bigs pots so I'd imagine most people think I'm average below average give that I look young. Down about 50 bucks on the session, basically entirely due to going for thin-value with a straight when I shouldn't have. Villain was not there for that hand though.

Villain(Covers): New to the table. Have played with him before, pretty sure I have a strong image against him. He's a thinking player and probably a winning player but I couldn't say for certain because I don't have too much hand history on him, only history that he's been at tables where I was doing well and being aggressive. Villain has 3-bet twice since he sat down which is less than 20 hands.

OTTH:

Hero opens AQo from UTG to $12, immediate left calls, fold to cutoff who calls as well.
V in SB 3-bets to $56
We call. Not sure if this is -EV or not. We're deep, in position on a player who I believe to have a skill edge against but maybe not, and he's definitely good enough to balance his 3-bet range and to know that you should not really have a call range in the SB, and should be 3-betting most of your hands. I also wasn't too worried about the two callers because they were both fish and in my experience fish fold to big 3-bets with most of their hands. This line of reasoning could be completely wrong though and I'm looking for any feedback you can provide.

Both callers fold.

Flop($138): QT7cc
V bets 65, I call

Turn($268): 4x
V checks, hero?

So he's got 12 combos of KK+, 3 combos of TT, 1 combo of QQ, but 4 combos of AJs, and say 16 combos of AK, 1 of which has a flush draw. So more often than not he's going to have missed this flop. I don't expect to see JJ because he probably would have checked flop, especially considering this flop favors my call 3-bet range over his 3-bet range.

I don't know what to do here. On one hand, I'm ahead a vast majority of the time, since KK+ probably barrels turn. And all of his missed hands have draws that I could charge.
On the other hand, all of his draws are gutshots and a large portion of my range is going to be hands like AK, AQ, AJ. I don't think he's going to call a bet that would pot commit him with just a gutshot. I don't know, what do you guys think.

4-bet or fold pre

I think V's check is SUPER weak here, so it may be more +EV to check back to induce a bluff on the river.

With that said, can't go wrong to just shove here and not get fancy. We only have a PSB left and we still get value from KQ, QJ, KJ, and AK. Some Tx could call. Doubtful he checks any flush/combo draw here but if he's capable it's another good reason to shove.

Just fold pre. You have a tight image and opened UTG with a caller from UTG+1. I would fold in these shallow 1/2 games without any stronger reads. If he's a thinking player, he should be thinking that your range, as a tight player opening UTG, is strong. There's no need to turn your hand into a bluff (it's possible he was dealt two premiums in 20 hands. I would like more info before committing my stack in the hand).

As played check turn.

Betting turn.

Options pre all suck. So not gonna comment.

I think checking turn is the play. You're WA/WB. Only really need to fade a J or a K to feel good about the river. Check back to induce. You have a 2-streets hand, get your 2 streets. Calling basically any bet on the river. Betting ~$160 if checked to.

I agree with what's been said. Jam turn. You need to decide earlier in the hand when and how you're committing or not. Once you call pre, you must commit on this flop. I mean, c'mon. It's a dream flop almost.

I don't necessarily think you should fold pre, but I might. Against a solid thinking player, I don't mind 4 bet bluffing if deep enough. It can be a great exploit too until you show one down. So, you can have a 4 bet range of QQ+, AK, and some suited connectors and wheel aces or other hand that can flop big and give you more board coverage. This will allow you to fold AQ here without sweating it so much.

I don't really get the point of firing the turn. You're way ahead of V's range, but V's bet calling range for the most part has you in a bad spot. AcKc is about the only hand in V's calling range that you're ahead of. Check turn, call V's stabby bet on any not K or J river. Print money. Firing turn because you have top-top seems imprudent.

I could be talked into a check, but this villain type could have QJs, KQs, even KJs if he's a LAG that pretty much 3bets or folds the SB.

I don't see this being WA/WB on this super wet flop, unless we're assigning Villain a nitty, super-valuey range, which would run counter to OP's overall read.

Consequently, I would rather bet the turn and check behind the river vs. giving Villain a free card.

Turn i'd just shove with < PSB left, no need to check there are a lot of bad rivers and AK is going to check down anyway. He might even hero off AK, and he has some worse Qx/pairs that can hero.

For a villian to 3b 3 times in 20 hands or so, i could take the line that he is aggressive.
I think that if he has any combo draw he is probably shoving turn so after he checks I would tend to think I am way ahead here.
I think checking the turn to induce bluff on river is probably the best line to get something out of him.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

Pretty split in Jam vs Check in seems. I did elect to check behind. K on the river, he bet and I folded . I’m still not entirely sure what I think the best line is. Some people have said check is good to induce a river bluff, and we only fear 5 cards(3 Kings and 3 Jacks left but if were ahead he has to have at least one). But I feel like V might be the type of player to stack off on the turn with AK because of “pot odds” which at my casino, means “pot is big so call” to most villains. I think it all depends on reads and my reads were limited by sample size.

As stated above, I'm checking here. You're not extremely ahead of anything in his calling range, and with him being such an aggressive player, he may stab on any missed river. Non-K or J river, he may take a stab, then you can decide to call or jam.

good read. its really close to betting or checking.

for me, since its < PSB, i might not be able to fold this also on a safe river and also don't wanna see a scary river. so im just jamming here to pick up the pot.

bummer if he has QQ or AA/KK (if he thinks we have QQ and slows down, maybe we can have it lay down to our bet). but yeah, thats poker.

The suits of your cards (have a club?) and the Q on the flop are important.

While a thinking player could 3b wider pre-flop given the dead $, they would also recognize you opened from UTG. I’d give credit for a tighter 3b range and fold.

As played, you have $220 left vs. pot of $268 ... all-in.