I am posting this hand because it sparked a debate between a friend and I about 3bet calling ranges, specifically against short stacks.

Villain 1 (180) - No real reads
Villian 2 (165) - Tight player, 3 bet range limited to AA or KK.
Hero (Covers) - Let's just say hero has solid image for this hand.

Hero in EP raises to $12 with Q J

Villain 1 calls. Villain 2 raises to $35.

Hero calls $35. Villain 1 calls $35.

Flop ($99 with rake): Q Q 3

Hero checks. Villain 1 bets $30. Villain 2 calls $30. Hero raises to $100. Villain 1 shoves. Villain 2 shoves for less.

Obviously the hand plays itself post flop, we are getting it in and scooping the majority of the pots. But my argument is folding pre-flop, especially since we are short stacked and Villain 1 still acts behind us.

Friend claims that he will play any two napkins vs. Villain 2 because his hand is face up at this point. But he is calling $35 with an effective stack of $180 and less ($165) vs. the 3bettor. Friend also claims the math is there, because Villain 2 is getting it in regardless of flop, and if we flop like above, we are getting paid.

But can someone explain the math for me here and if it's a good or bad play. I just don't think the implied odds are there, we are calling off 20% of our stack vs. what we know is either AA or KK. Thanks for the feedback.

I'm pretty sure it's a standard snap-fold, but if you do the math you have to call $23 to potentially win $351. If you only flop one pair you won't have odds to continue, so you need a strong draw or 2P+ to ever make any money. I don't know the exact odds, but flopping trips is like 90:1, 2P is like 20-some:1, flopping a straight is about 100:1, and with 2P an overpair still has okay equity. Also, assuming you stack V1 every time is stupidly optimistic.

Also, a lot of flops give you a strong hand but still kind of suck.

How do we feel about QJT or AQJ type flops? We flopped good and our equity against V's range still isn't anywhere near what we want.

sc's typically need 20-1 to crack aces

so odds say your friend just overrates pretty cardz oop like 99%+ of the poker community

which is all good, he may even know that it's not mathematically correct but just wants to gambol. not much point in arguing with him, just embrace it and sit to his left....

You're calling off more than 1/8th of effective stacks to play a dominated hand out of absolute position and out of relative position. This is an investment you will not make back.

EDIT: As for math, this hand flops two pair+ ~5% of the time. You are calling ~13% of the effective stack.

Don't worry about how often it flops 8+ out draws, because these are only marginally profitable situations when you have no fold equity and so little IO left behind after a flop bet.

Additionally, even when you hit two pair or trips, it's not well-disguised. There are tight players who would easily have been able to get away from this board, or even a QJx board.

lol
This is a terrible call pre flop.
When you hit 1p your are still normally behind.
So do a quick search on how often you are going to flop 2p or better.
Tell me if you think that's profitable.

Calling is bad. You need to be way deeper to call.

BTW your friend makes a typical bad player excuse that villain's hand is face up. It doesn't matter if stack sizes mean that you cannot flop hard enough often enough to overcome hand strength.

I don't even open QJs from EP. Usually limp call or nit fold.

Sent from my SGH-I747M using 2+2 Forums

If you both agree that villain's range is AA and KK, why are you calling? You have no fold equity and you need to get lucky...sooooo

[Spoiler]
Goodluck
[/Spoiler]

Also this is a drawing hand, if you flop a draw you will be going broke with it since villain is not going to slow down on drawy boards, so again


[Spoiler]
Goodluck
[/Spoiler]

Also if the flop came A72r, your friend would have agreed that this is a bad call.

Sent from my SM-G920V using 2+2 Forums

I have good news--you win the debate.

In what way are we short stacked? The blinds are 1 and 2.
^ It usually is, at NLH.

While you're right that we're a robust-ish 90bbs deep, the second we open for 6bbs and villain 3xs that, we're effectively half-stacking lol.

OP, tell your friend that if he wants to see a lot of flops and outplay his opponents, he should not 6x his opens at a table with multiple players playing under 125bbs. He's playing his range in such a way that he's playing top-pair-or-bust poker (or at most top-pair-or-cbet-works-or-bust poker ... either way, the play ITH doesn't fit anywhere in the profit equation for him).

Not playing nearly deep enough here to justify opening QJs from EP. Bad move unless you're at 200BB with at least 4-5 others at table with same or more. More generally speaking, why 6XBB opening raises when playing so shallow? Open to five and 3 bet to 15, then calling is at least a little bit less of a mistake.

LeGros beat me to this point. QJs isn't even an open given stack sizes. OP got lucky. His friend was wrong.

+1. Piling on here. You need to be much deeper to justify a call. Even then, it's pretty meh with QJ since 2 of your straight outs will always be gone and you'll usually have to call multiple streets.

Playing 'any two napkins' is completely ridiculous this shallow.

U need something like 25:1 to call preflop with sc type hands

If villain 2 is getting it in regardless of flop, then that implies he isn't folding. As a result, the way to outplay him postflop is to get value when you hit and fold when you miss; bluffing a guy who won't fold is pointless.

Calling with any two napkins with a plan of trying to hit the flop and get value against AA/KK is terrible. Being OOP makes it even worse. If I saw someone call in that spot with hands like Q2s, J4o or T5s I'd immediately think fish.

The good news is if you ask the average live player there is a very good chance that player would agree with your friend. Live players constantly make bad calls because they think to themselves "I have implied odds."

if you assume V1 will overcall then fold blind, V2 shoves no matter the flop/action/stack sizes, and you will only call an all-in when you have the required equity:

1) you are losing ~14.50 on this call
2) V's stack size would have to be ~670 before this call breaks even

these are kind of weird assumptions to make generally speaking, and they will become further from the truth as you get deep (seeing more cards becomes an option), but that gives you an idea

AA at best is around 85% to win ....so your odds to Crack them is about 6.6 to 1 not 20:1

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using 2+2 Forums

Hmmmm oh boy

This is true if you are seeing all 5 cards

Sent from my SM-G920V using 2+2 Forums

You're friends reasoning is way off. You arent flopping 2pair+ nearly often enough to justify a call.
What matters is how often you outflop him, not how often you win at showdown.
If youre 400bb deep and he cant fold and overpair, then calling is fine.

Sent from my LG-D321 using 2+2 Forums