Reads: Young LAG. Fairly spewy postflop too. He once donked into a preflop raiser on a K108 flop. Turn was a 9. He bet, faced a HUGE raise, then he shoved. Both players were fairly deep (like $180). The preflop raiser showed AK it was good. Villain just showed one card: a king.

One other very loose player (and actually similar to villain above) limps in EP. Villain makes it $8 next to him. He has shown J8o after making similar raises. I flat next to him with 55, an older tight player flats. The button makes it $45. He's an old guy but doesn't fit the definition of the typical old nit. He's loose and capable of bluffing. The EP limper cold calls. The initial preflop raiser calls.

About $190 effective against all players (AFTER I call. It would be $190 effective after I call). Hero?

fold

Why?

My immediate odds are $151/$37 = 4.08-1. I need to be able to extract another 3.92*$37= $145.04 postflop to setmine profitably. But is that too optimistic? Normally, it's suggested to have 15 to 25x the size of the call in effective stacks, but here, aren't my implied odds better due to the 3-bet? I.e. it's likely the 3-bettor has AA-QQ and will commit on a ragged flop. Also, surely we must factor in the looseness postflop of the two callers.

180$ is not deep ffs...
Snap fold this. Even if he promises u to stack off every time u flop ur set this is still a fold

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i've mistakenly tried to explain this twice in the past week.

one guy called a 3-bet to $35 with nothing invested when the 3-better had a starting stack of $100. flopped set. still wrong.

guy called my $50 3-bet with $240 behind and flopped a set (and lost) and was also wrong.

unless you are personally out to get this guy and will get great joy in flopping a set and stacking him you should fold. otherwise, just light the money on fire for the times you will miss or the times you hit and don't get paid.

No, if he promises to stack off everytime I flop a set this is a call. If effective stacks were less than $145.04 then it would be a fold (but factoring the chance the player next to me calls makes my implied odds a little better. There's a decent chance he flats and almost zero chance he 4-bets).

145.04?

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Fold man. Stacks aren't deep enough. If like 2 people plus you had like $300+ then maybe it would be ok

U flop a set 1 in 8 times no? 10% of these times he will set over set u...
U r getting less than 6:1

Am I missing something?

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^Right.

Conventional wisdom used to be that you need 10:1 implied odds to set mine. Bart Hanson advocates 15:1 again and I like that number a lot more. It takes into account the times you are set over setted and the times villain does not stack off. Like if you are in a 2/5 game where everyone will stack off 1k with AA/KK postflop no matter what, tell me where you live and I will move there. It just doesn't happen. Not 100% of the time.

If he does have an overpair (and his range probably can include AK), he'd set over set me about 1.5% of the time.

Yes odds of flopping a set are 7.5-1. So if I could stack off 100% of the time if he has AA with $140 effective...

EVsetmine = .1176*$291 - .8824*$37 = $34.2216 -$32.6 = +$1.6216

So if he had $140 behind and promised to stack off always, it's almost neutral ev. Note: I'm not taking into account the 1.5% chance of being set over setted or his 8% equity of hitting a two-outer. Those will lower the EV but it'll still be near neutral EV.

Your odds of flopping a set are 7.5/1. So with a $45 pre flop bet, you would need to win $337.50 just to break even. With effective stacks at $190 (which is not 100BB and not deep). Your not even getting the implied odds to break even against one opponent. And lets say you do flop your set, your opponent has aces, and there are also two queens on board. Your opponent may not even stack off. With that said, you are getting two other opponents that cold called OMC's big raise. But, even with all of that there are still no guarantees you won't get it in against a higher set for example. This situation will come up a lot, and it's more profitable to fold these small pairs to large raises pre than calling.
Your pot would contain $45 X 4 for $180 to the flop. And what does the main villain have left? $145 or is it $190. So if it is $190 than that's $190 + $180 for $370 to win. We needed to win $337.50, so this is close. But, once you add in getting stacked with over sets, and not getting the rest of villains stack your EV- here.
Fold pre!

Your math seems fine to me OP.
I think that assuming you're going to average making $144 post flop every time you flop a set is overly ambitious. You will lose sometimes when you flop a set and will win a smaller amount sometimes as well.

10:1 IO seems to be on the low end of what is advocated here when it comes to profitably set mining. IMO 12:1 or more seems more accurate.

Where are you getting this 1.5% from? It's about 8% that an overpair will set over set you when you flop yours. That is not trivial. When you combine that with his 8% equity from a two-outer when he misses, you'll get stacked about 15% of the time when you flop a set. That's why you need far better than 8:1 to setmine profitably (even with the wildly optimistic assumption that Villain has an overpair and stacks off every time).

isn't set-mining in 3b pots standard?

Fold... not deep enough... odds aren't good

even if you were deep enough, the fact that the 3 bettor could have some potential bluffs in his 3b range makes your io even worse than they already are.

easy fold - look at your stack and look at the raise

$180 is not deep. You're not getting enough in implied odds once you consider the times you don't get paid, oversetted, flushed or otherwise beat. (Straights, flushes, overboats.)

Just fold. Even your crazy optimistic math is only showing a $1-2 +EV. You should include a fudge factor for the times that you're wrong (like everyone is telling you here) on these thin EV spots.

Results: Hero folds preflop. Flop comes 8 5 3 rainbow.

Obv. Suck it up and move on

yeah I am never calling in this situation, sucks to see it hit on the flop but hey it happens all the time.

Just fold and relook at your math.

This. And fold if you think you'll be squeezed as well.

I don't think that's the case in this hand, but something to always consider.

grunch: call

assuming we expect big bets and a good chance of a shove coming in this hand we can take big implied odds. i think we can also assume you need to hit the flop to not be blown off your hand. so we need 7.5 to 1. we have that in implied odds... obviously not in direct pots for the flop. with 2 players, both lag's with an emphasis on the L i think this is a great set-mining spot. normally a 3 bet pot is a good reason to get out... i think this is actually a spot where it's better because we're more confident we'll get paid off if we hit.

i have a feeling i'm going to read the other responses and realize i'm an idiot... but my grunch is call!