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1/2 set bad river thin value?

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02-14-2015 , 04:58 AM

LordRiverRat

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,675

Villain (CO): 40s white man; LAG reg ($400)
Hero (EP): mid 20s asian man; TAG reg ($200)

Hero opens $14 in EP with J

. Villain calls in CO along with the BB.

Flop: J

($43)

Hero bets $30. Villain calls BB folds.

Turn: K

($98)

Hero bets $55. Villain calls.

River: A

($208)

Well I set up the 1/2 pot river shove pretty nicely. Problem is any Qx beats me now. He does have some hands like KJ/AJ maybe even AK he can call river with should he flat it pre. I'm also not folding if he bets so might as well thin value shove right? He knows I play tight from EP but I've seen him make some pretty light calls before.

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02-14-2015 , 05:01 AM

matzah_ball

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 2,726

More inclined to c/c here because he can have busted draws. Don't like the value bet. Impossible for us to be bluffing here.

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02-14-2015 , 06:50 AM

Pork Fri Rize

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,410

Bet more on turn.

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02-14-2015 , 09:24 AM

Dutchstreetfish

adept

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 832

Are you never folding here? Im not saying you should or should not but if, in your mind, you're never folding, check call. if V was on a fd, he could fire this river, eps if he picked up a pair of aces or if he this you are scared of the queen.
I think that there are a lot of queens in Vs range but you're probably pretty far ahead of his range overall. If it goes check check, I don't think that's a bad result. I wouldn't go for a value bet. If I was definitely never folding, instead of shoving and hoping he can call with worse, I'm checking and hoping he can bluff.

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02-14-2015 , 09:28 AM

Dutchstreetfish

adept

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 832

And, bigger in the turn. KJTx with two spades -- so many draws. Stacks don't really make a PSB work here and maybe shoving the turn is an overbet but I'd think about shoving turn since the SPR is awkward and I'd want to bet more then half pot on the turn. With all those draws, shoving turn doesn't seem too crazy, given stack sizes.

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02-14-2015 , 11:26 AM

akjohn1

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 60

Agree with other posters.

(1) Bet more on turn, ~75
(2) check/call river. agree that you probably should not be folding the river. Betting folds out the busted draws, gets some crying calls (and some folds) from 2 pair type hands, and gets snapped off by a Q. Checking induces some bluffs from busted draws, V also bets his Q, and may bet some other two pair type hands (while also checking some through). On the whole, I think C/C is better.

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02-14-2015 , 02:36 PM

jambre

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,181

It's hard for V's on busted draws not to have a pair, and most V's will not turn their pairs into bluffs when checked to. C/c is bad as you'll just run into straights.

If V reads you well he knows your range is heavy on the 2pairs and sets or a straight, I dont think he'll try to bluff this board, nor call down particularly light.
I'd just c/f.

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02-14-2015 , 03:07 PM

LordRiverRat

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,675

Hm...looks like most of you guys are saying x/c and let the LAG bluff. But after thinking about it more...a lot of his draws on the flop either hit the straight or at least has a pair or two pair by now. Unless he's flatting something like 8

vs my EP open he doesn't have a lot of air, like jambre said.

I guess I could have avoided this whole situation by potting the flop and shoving turn. But I was afraid of giving him a bet sizing tell by betting big nutted and 1/2 pot - 2/3 pot with air. Yes it's 1/2 but he's a decent reg and I need to be balanced with my sizings vs him.

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02-14-2015 , 03:34 PM

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,780

I like a check/call on river. If he has a worse hand, I think it's the only way you get paid.

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02-14-2015 , 05:19 PM

#10

matzah_ball

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 2,726

Why can't he have 76ss? And if he's any good he surely realizes A3ss is never good here and might attempt a bluff anyway.

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02-14-2015 , 05:54 PM

#11

sierradave

adept

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 920

I'd lean towards a shove here against most villains.

The argument for checking is that it can induce a bluff from busted flush draws. And that's true, sure. But the problem here is that villain isn't going to bet with most of his value hands. Axss is just going to check. Kxss is just going to check. Two pair is just going to check. And all of those hands will think about looking you up if you jam here.

It's actually a sort of cool spot. Jamming here effectively turns your set into a bluff. In doing so, you're targeting a wide range of bluff catchers (top pair, two pair) that still can't beat you.

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02-14-2015 , 06:42 PM

#12

matzah_ball

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 2,726

You really think he's bad enough to call with Ax or Kx after we triple barrel this board? Even a call with two pair would be horrific, but even the best 1/2 villains struggle with folding two pair when it's obviously no good. KJ probably just ships the turn though, I think.

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02-14-2015 , 10:24 PM

#13

au4all

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,872

Quote:

Originally Posted by LordRiverRat

I guess I could have avoided this whole situation by potting the flop and shoving turn. But I was afraid of giving him a bet sizing tell by betting big nutted and 1/2 pot - 2/3 pot with air. Yes it's 1/2 but he's a decent reg and I need to be balanced with my sizings vs him.

I would assume that a decent reg would expect that your bet sizing would be different on wet/dry flops. On J72 rainbow you might have to check or bet very small.

On this flop you could probably bet pot and get called if your cards were face-up.

Long story short: The tell should be based on something that's clearly visible to both of you: the very wet board.

A quick google found this:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...etting-447771/

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02-15-2015 , 03:16 PM

#14

br3nt00

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,664

bet turn bigger

as played check/decide

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