$1/$2: Set of AA on the River; Check/Raise or Lead?
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 127
$1/$2 NL
Reads:
Villain 1 (~$1000): Middle-Aged, White, rec player who likes to drink and see lots of flops. He's in for 3 buy-ins already since I sat down at the table. He's sticky on the flop but he would usually fold to further aggression if his hand is not strong enough. He can get a little tricky sometimes and he's capable of making big bluffs and is prone overplaying his hands. Ran up his stack mostly by repeatedly stacking a tilted reg.
Villain 2 (~$175): 20's, Passive fit-or-fold
Hero ($700): Young, Reg, most likely viewed as tight and maybe even nitty. Winning a lot pots without showdown and seems like nobody wants to pay me off. Hands I did show were AK<A5s (lost to shortstack) and A9s>AKo (doubled up when I rivered a flush a got paid.) Haven't been involved in any significant pots with V1 since he would usually just fold to a c-bet or turn.
Hand:
Pre-flop ($8):
V1 Straddles UTG, V2, MP1 calls, folds to Hero in BB who raises to $25, Villain calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls
Flop ($95): K 7 3 r
Hero bets $50, V1 calls, V2 calls
Turn ($245): 4 (completing the rainbow)
Hero checks, Villain bets $150, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls
Way Ahead/Way Behind? Thoughts?
River ($545): A
Final Board: K734A
Hero? How do you make the most money in this spot?
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 7,951
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,649
I think a lot depends on your table image. If you have a history of betting aggressively I would bomb the crap out of the flop. If you are the type to frequently check the turn you might consider checking this turn also hoping to get some calls OTR. Although tbh against unsophisticated low limit players, just going bet-bet-bet will probably make the most money over time. I don't think you are strong enough (or weak enough) to overbet the river, I would personally bet half pot but that's just me. It's complicated because you have to ask yourself what they are calling with two streets on this board. Not much in the way of draws, you're up against Kx, sets and 2pair. Not many AQ/AJ hands stand up to this shellacking IMO. Not the usual fishy range of busted draws.
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 1,793
I hate the turn check. V2 is no fear to you because of the short-stack and I'd prefer to bet/fold the turn if you're scared of V1's range. Since he straddled and his range is any two cards I'm not scared of his range at all. I like leading the turn and making him raise if he wants to try to steal the pot.
As played you really risk a check behind if you check the river. Only 52 and 65 beat you and I think both are unlikely so I'd bet $250-300 on the river and snap-call a raise.
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 33
I had a similar hand to this last night. I flopped top two, cbet the flop, and then checked the turn OOP because I wanted the Villain to try to steal it. He bet, I called. The river was another brick, and I checked again, because I thought the Villain would know that if he were going to bet the turn to try to take it, he'd have to bet the river too a lot of the time in order to get me off the hand.
In that scenario though, I knew the Villain was a good, thinking player. In this case, you state that the Villain is a rec player. I think the turn bet isn't necessarily going to lead to a river bet as well. I also think that the A kills some of your action, cause a K isn't as likely to call with an A on the board if you bet into them.
I think I check and hope he bets.
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 526
the guy who played 56 off turned a str8
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 4,422
Don't check that turn unless he bluffs a ton after you do. He'll call much wider than he'll bet when you check, so bet.
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 555
Shove. If this is set over set (or 2pr somehow) you're getting it all. The shove could look 'bluffy' to some Vs as well. Shove or at least bet big.