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1/2 River value bet? 1/2 River value bet?

02-27-2016 , 09:11 PM
eff stack is 200bb,
fish raised to 7 utg+1...Nit 3bet to 21 in MP, Hero calls in CO with AJs..

Flop is K86 - 2spades (flush draw for hero), Check to MP who bets 30 into 66, both calls

Turn: J, Fish donks out 75 into 156, MP calls, Hero calls

River: A, checks to hero...Hero is 300 behind, Nit covers. Pot is close to 400

Now my question is whether i should can value bet the river or should i check it. Im very sure i have the fish range crushed but for the nit? The action the nit has taken makes him having a set very unlikely..He doesnt 3b QT preflop so the only hand im beat is AK...
1/2 River value bet? Quote
02-27-2016 , 09:24 PM
Raise flop if hes folding QQ. Shove river.

Was gonna say fold pre but 200 bb deep IP vs a nit its pretty easy to play.
1/2 River value bet? Quote
02-28-2016 , 04:05 AM
A nit 3bet pre? I'd fold AKs nevermind AJs. I'd much rather call with a PP vs a nit than call with this hand because set mining is so much easier to play post. As played you have Aces up and still don't know what to do.

I can't imagine the nit checking AK OTR. But I also can't imagine what worse hand he could have that calls. QQ and AQ are unlikely. I don't see what worse hands he could have that get to the river. And all better hands should bet.

I'd probably bet $100-$150 and try to get value from the fish. Folding to a c/r from the nit of course.
1/2 River value bet? Quote
02-28-2016 , 01:01 PM
i'm fine with the hand as played. calling behind 200BB deep against a nit with AJs is perfectly fine assuming you can play him postflop

shove river. don't think the nit is checking behind the fish on the river with a value hand there often. pretty sure we're gonna see a fold from him (and hopefully not the fish) but if you have any live reads that say otherwise then i would check back
1/2 River value bet? Quote
02-29-2016 , 10:56 AM
I'm gonna say shoving is insane and here's why:

So nits like to put it in when they have a sure thing and are always worried about the bad things that can happen in a hand. As such they show up on river with amazingly strong non-nut holdings sometimes that they elected not to bet OTR. And only call off bad when their AA or KK is still an overpair or whatever - save occasional spazz.

Fish... Well we don't have much of a read but he opened from EP not sure what that range is.

Let's give fish an ep open range of 88+, AK, AQ, KQ

Let's give Nit QQ+ AK (and a lot of nits aren't 3! AK cuz drawing hand ldo) so I'd discount some.

After turn and river card removal and given action through turn (I'm ignoring their passive river actions because at 1/2 they take all sorts of non-nut monsters to showdown w/out betting for value. So some ranges for discussion:

Fish: 88 (3) JJ (1) KQ (12)
If he opens wider pre KJ (3)
Fish bets KK OTR again so unlikely

Nit: AA (1) KK (3) JJ (1) AK (6)
KK likely raises turn so discount to 1 or 0 doesn't matter because nothing left we beat in his range.
Nit folds QQ to turn donk from fish.

So if fish will call with KQ he has more combos behind than ahead. But the valuebet would likely need to be fairly small with the A on board.

But As for the Nit I have a hard time finding hands he calls the turn donk with that we beat OTR. So unless his 3! range preflop is wider (rendering him not a nit) there is nothing we beat.

Without read that nit is substantially wider preflop I can't conjure up a situation where we value bet and are good more than 50% when called.

Unless I missed something here I think we have to check it back. Yes fish could be wider and button clicking but he's protected by the Nit here IMO.

Last edited by cAmmAndo; 02-29-2016 at 11:02 AM.
1/2 River value bet? Quote
03-01-2016 , 05:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
I'm gonna say shoving is insane and here's why:

So nits like to put it in when they have a sure thing and are always worried about the bad things that can happen in a hand. As such they show up on river with amazingly strong non-nut holdings sometimes that they elected not to bet OTR. And only call off bad when their AA or KK is still an overpair or whatever - save occasional spazz.

Fish... Well we don't have much of a read but he opened from EP not sure what that range is.

Let's give fish an ep open range of 88+, AK, AQ, KQ

Let's give Nit QQ+ AK (and a lot of nits aren't 3! AK cuz drawing hand ldo) so I'd discount some.

After turn and river card removal and given action through turn (I'm ignoring their passive river actions because at 1/2 they take all sorts of non-nut monsters to showdown w/out betting for value. So some ranges for discussion:

Fish: 88 (3) JJ (1) KQ (12)
If he opens wider pre KJ (3)
Fish bets KK OTR again so unlikely

Nit: AA (1) KK (3) JJ (1) AK (6)
KK likely raises turn so discount to 1 or 0 doesn't matter because nothing left we beat in his range.
Nit folds QQ to turn donk from fish.

So if fish will call with KQ he has more combos behind than ahead. But the valuebet would likely need to be fairly small with the A on board.

But As for the Nit I have a hard time finding hands he calls the turn donk with that we beat OTR. So unless his 3! range preflop is wider (rendering him not a nit) there is nothing we beat.

Without read that nit is substantially wider preflop I can't conjure up a situation where we value bet and are good more than 50% when called.

Unless I missed something here I think we have to check it back. Yes fish could be wider and button clicking but he's protected by the Nit here IMO.
Spot on...As played I value bet 200, the fish tanked and folded (says he got KJ which i do believe) nit said something like we got the same hand and calls, he has AK
1/2 River value bet? Quote
03-01-2016 , 05:16 AM
If we do shove the river it is not for value against the nit
1/2 River value bet? Quote

      
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