Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
I'm gonna say shoving is insane and here's why:
So nits like to put it in when they have a sure thing and are always worried about the bad things that can happen in a hand. As such they show up on river with amazingly strong non-nut holdings sometimes that they elected not to bet OTR. And only call off bad when their AA or KK is still an overpair or whatever - save occasional spazz.
Fish... Well we don't have much of a read but he opened from EP not sure what that range is.
Let's give fish an ep open range of 88+, AK, AQ, KQ
Let's give Nit QQ+ AK (and a lot of nits aren't 3! AK cuz drawing hand ldo) so I'd discount some.
After turn and river card removal and given action through turn (I'm ignoring their passive river actions because at 1/2 they take all sorts of non-nut monsters to showdown w/out betting for value. So some ranges for discussion:
Fish: 88 (3) JJ (1) KQ (12)
If he opens wider pre KJ (3)
Fish bets KK OTR again so unlikely
Nit: AA (1) KK (3) JJ (1) AK (6)
KK likely raises turn so discount to 1 or 0 doesn't matter because nothing left we beat in his range.
Nit folds QQ to turn donk from fish.
So if fish will call with KQ he has more combos behind than ahead. But the valuebet would likely need to be fairly small with the A on board.
But As for the Nit I have a hard time finding hands he calls the turn donk with that we beat OTR. So unless his 3! range preflop is wider (rendering him not a nit) there is nothing we beat.
Without read that nit is substantially wider preflop I can't conjure up a situation where we value bet and are good more than 50% when called.
Unless I missed something here I think we have to check it back. Yes fish could be wider and button clicking but he's protected by the Nit here IMO.
Spot on...As played I value bet 200, the fish tanked and folded (says he got KJ which i do believe) nit said something like we got the same hand and calls, he has AK