Reads: Young, early to mid 20s white guy. Well dressed and seems like a decent LAG based on just a few minutes of observation. Haven't seen a showdown from him yet. He's maybe a bit loose pre flop and has limped a few times. I'm new to the table so don't have any real image.

I open to $10 from EP with KK. Player to my immediate left flats as does villain from the SB. BB folds and the pot is $32 with $45 effective stacks against villain (he's the shortstack). It's about $100 effective against the other player to my immediate left.

Flop comes A104. I was going to commit on basically any non ace flop, so this is a bad flop. Flop checks around. Turn is the A. SB checks and now I have some reason to believe no one has an ace so I bet $15. Only the SB calls. River is the 9 and villain bets all in for about $30.

I'm getting 3-1 so need to win 25%+ of the time. Am I good that often?

Since I don't have much info on villain, here are some questions for this thread:

1. Against an unknown, how strong do you rate their hand reading ability?

2. Against an unknown, what % of the time do you believe he will elect to bluff with a busted flush draw?

3. Against an unknown, do you think they'd shove JJ or 10-X here as a blocking bet?

After he calls the turn bet, I put his range on roughly: QQ (discounted), JJ, A-X (discounted just a bit for the higher A-X hands), 10-X (discounted), and flush draws. In other words, I expect 99%+ of the player pool to play a flush draw this way (getting 3-1 with about 5-1 implied odds. And if there's a gutshot as well, getting the right immediate odds since 12 outs is about 2.9-1 to come in.). But I expect far less than 99% of the player pool will play 10-X or A-X this way. Some might fold the 10X on the turn and some might lead turn with A-X or donk flop.

Anyway, call river or fold?

Cliffs: Raise more pre, never fold KK for $45 even if the board is 89TJ

How is villain a solid lag when he's playing 30bb deep?

1: very weak

2: could be pretty fequently since he is short stacked, or he could be spazzing with a number of other hands. with so little behind, i've seen opponents literally go all in with absolutely nothing.

3: the purpose of a blocking bet is to avoid calling a larger bet, so when V goes all in, it technically is can not be a blocking bet.

getting 3 to 1 here this is a snap. he can shove with a whole lot that you beat, and only a few combos of hands have you beat here.

Very easy call given the way the hand was played.

1. Against an unknown with 45$ I rate that he doesn't even know what a hand is let alone how to read one

2/3. With this stacksize he could be doing this with anything. A ten, a 4, 99, busted draw, K high, especially the way you played it

I think you are over thinking this one

Why raise more preflop? Even if I get just one caller, and the flop comes all ragged, I can profitably commit my stack. Am I allowing a set-miner to exploit me here? I don't think so because....

1. He's getting 1-1 immediate odds pre and needs 8-1 implied odds. He needs to extract another $70 postflop with his set to setmine.

2. Since I have KK and not AA, I will not commit if an ace flops. So in order for his set to stack me, he needs to flop a set (about 11% of the time) AND an ace has to not come on the flop (77.45% chance). I'm actually committing on the flop less than 77.45%, because if it comes like 987 I can probably get away from it...

Summary: If I had AA and planned to commit on 100% of flops, then I'm allowing a set-miner to exploit me by raising to only $10 pre flop. With kings and a plan on committing only on maybe 70% of flops, set-miners can't exploit me.

With a ten, it's not quite certain that he calls the turn bet. And a ten has showdown value...does it really shove river? A 4 folds turn. 99 might fold turn too. Busted flush draw is a real possibility. A naked King high is not possible.

I pokerstoved a range of many combos of weak A-X, a few busted flush draws, a few JJ and 10-X, and I was actually only good like 19%. That's 6% less than the equity I need to call.

Preflop looks fairly obvious and nice result thinning the field to 3way.

I'd also plan on stacking off on non-horrendous flops with this SPR. I'd also check this flop (we're pretty much WA/WB here, even 3way).

I might even check the turn, although I don't hate a bet now as we could get paid off by draws. However a bet puts us in an awkward spot against shortstacked villain where we might be committing ourselves; even a largish bet could put us in a sucky position against other guy behind us. I'm more for getting to the river as cheap as possible and then getting one street of value with a bluffcatch / valuebet.

Villain only started the hand with $55. I don't think it's possible to describe anyone playing with a short $55 stack as a decent LAG cuz you can't play loose with this stack size. This guy also just called off 1/5th of his stack preflop which is pretty lol bad in most cases. I'd peg him as a moron, and moron's get their stacks in pretty light this short. So I call.

GcluelessNLnoobG

So you can get more money in the pot obviously. If you aren't stacking off $45 on a 789hhh board with KK then just stop playing poker. I am never folding KK for 22bb....ever. Stop over-analyzing the math and put your money in. When a player has a $45 stack they can have just about anything, so pegging their range as Ax and pocket pairs only is pretty bad. Anyone trying to bluff someone out of a hand with only $45 is an absolute moron.

Side question - are you an engineering major? All of your posts are full of equity and EV calcs but I see so many leaks in your game with the way you play a lot of these hands and try to over-analyze every decision.

This whole hand was played fine as long as you call river

I meant I'm not stacking off on a 789hhh board if there's $20 in the pot with like $100 behind. When I raised to $10, I didn't know the shortest stack at the table would call.

And I think you guys are assuming villain is terrible too early...it's possible he's a good player but has lost a big pot right before I got to the table and didn't reload yet. Sometimes people are shortstacked because they played a big pot right and lost.

How's this for a range?

JJ,44,AJs-A2s,KhQh,KhJh,KTs,Kh8h,QhJh,JTs,Jh8h,8h7h,7h6h,6h5 h,AJo-A2o,KTo,JTo

That's basically ALL A-X except the bigger ones, lots and lots of busted flush draws, and 66.66% of the bigger 10-X hands. Now the question is, how do we go about adjusting this range (i.e. do some weighted combos).

I think just about the only hand that we can be confident is in his range without discounting is JJ.

Dude called off 1/5th of his stack preflop sitting 27.5bbs deep. There's not a lotta hands a good player can do that with.

GI'mactuallynotsurethereareanyhandsagoodplayercand othatwithG

Nope, not an engineering major. This river decision is close...against that super wide range I posted, we win 29% of the time, so it would be a call if that range is accurate, but it's a close and only marginally +EV call.

Another question: How much an we discount A-X from his range? How unusual a line is this with say Ace rag? Most players would check flop with that hand. Would a lot keep checking turn though?

op, you do ball out when it comes to equity calcs and all that, but overall your making things more difficult. Rather than looking for those small edges you can exploit in these games, you should be looking for massive leaks in your opponent's play that you can exploit.

You mention you can't be exploited by raising to 10 with KKs bc you won't stack of enough to make it profitable. Stop thinking about how you can avoid being exploited and go out and exploit the **** out of your opponents. You just miss out on so much value by not playing more straightforwardly and value owning your opponents. You raise more bc you can get called by worse and have an easier time getting it all in.

And raising to 10 doesn't actually save you from being exploited. A good player can call with almost atc and expect to use scare cards and your unwillingness to get all in without a monster to abuse you. This probably will almost never happen, just tht you denying your opponents the right odds to set mine doesn't mean your fully protected here.

Definitely raising to 15-18 rather than 10 makes the entire hand so much easier to play.Given an effective stack size of 45,I am willing to get it in even if an ace hits the flop. If someone is ready to call 1/4th of their stack with just an Ace-X hand, then it really isn't that bad. However, we have another person in the hand, who might not even had been there if we raised bigger pre. (I do not mind raising to 10 if everyone was playing deep though).
The check on the flop not too bad I guess.The bet on the turn is also fine, I think any Ace definitely shuvs the turn(especially given v's stack size). If V had checked the river, then I def value bet to put him all in. A lot of players(like our Villain) would not put you on any Ace or fullhouse hand here. So lot of weaker pair will shuv. Plus some may even bluff that river. I snap call. We have gotto be good. His range is far too wide in this spot.
Villains Range: {A 10, A 4, 10 10, 4 4} for hands that we cannot beat.
{J J, K 10, Q 10, 10 J, 10d 9d, KdJd, QdJd, Kd10d, Qd10d} likely hands that we can beat
{3d 5d, 8 8, Q Q, A A} much less likely but given we do not know much about opponent, still possible}
It would be nice if someone could pokerstove this.

I agree with the others that your preflop bet is too small. Are you $100 effective because you're short or because the other guys are all short? Or is there a mix and you just happened to have the shorties call?

These influence how much you should bet. If hero only has $100 to start the hand we should be planning for that and betting closer to $20 preflop so we can get it in easily OTF. Same if everyone at the table is short. If there's a mix of deep and short stacks then we can switch to a more general sizing of $15ish for a typical $1/2 EP raise.

The reason that you want to raise more is to avoid going too multi-way to a flop. Many times a $10 bet will get 5 callers. Bet more to thin the field while still extracting value from weaker hands. Look at it this way, if the set-miner that you describe in your reply is making a small mistake calling your $10 bet, he makes an EVEN BIGGER mistake by calling a $15 bet. So since most V's have pretty similar calling ranges between a $10 and $15 bet, let him make the largest mistake you can by betting larger.


Why do you think 99% of players are flatting the turn with a FD and donking a brick river? This isn't normal. Some will give up OTR, others will jam the turn, but not many will bluff with such a short remaining stack.

Tx kinda makes sense for the line if he doesn't "put you on" an A yourself, as does Ax. Some may do as you suggest, but a lot will also take the Villain's line.

Call, expect to be beat a lot, and remember what he shows down.

At this point I expect V to have an Ace.

Not raising the turn makes perfect sense from his perspective if he is any good at all.

#1: He is short stacked. If he is good, he isn't calling off T9 here, he is coming in with a good Ace or an otherwise strong hand.

#2: He isn't calling the 15 without at least a 10.

#3: Raising you makes no sense. He wants to give you the impression he is weak to increase the chances you call the river since he has an ace.

With that said, you are calling here because you are getting 2.5:1 that he doesn't have an ace. If he doesn't flip an ace over, remember that he isn't very good, since he just called a turn and bluffed a river that slammed straight into your range.

This. I can't think of any I'd do it with.

You don't think that JJ might just jam preflop when there's already $20 in the pot and he's OOP? I know I would, and I've seen a lot of players pull exactly that move.


100% this.

Read Ed Miller's "Playing the Player". The companion book "How To Read Hands At No-Limit Hold'em" will help your ranging skill too.