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1/2 River Decision with AT 1/2 River Decision with AT
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12-17-2018 , 12:46 PM
#1
canadiasian
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journeyman
Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 227
About three orbits in, no reads and no history on Villain.

UTG+2 Villain ($135): Young, WM, no history
LJ Hero ($210): Young AM, tight

Preflop:
V raises to $5
Hero raises to $15 with AT
V calls

Flop ($33): K96
V checks
Hero bets $15
V calls

Turn ($63): K964
V checks
Hero checks

River ($63): K964A
V checks
Hero bets $25
V all-in for $75

Hero action?
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12-17-2018 , 01:07 PM
#2
Javanewt
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Yuck. Pre and flop are fine, although I might have called the $5 from an unknown EP raiser (or folded). ATo is so easily dominated. Your bet on the river is so tiny -- I guess you were going for thin value, but now what? It's probably a fold, but now that I'm here, I become a fish and call
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12-17-2018 , 01:14 PM
#3
canadiasian
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journeyman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
Yuck. Pre and flop are fine, although I might have called the $5 from an unknown EP raiser (or folded). ATo is so easily dominated. Your bet on the river is so tiny -- I guess you were going for thin value, but now what? It's probably a fold, but now that I'm here, I become a fish and call
I saw him raise about 6-9 times preflop in the 3-4 orbits that I was there. His raise sizes varied which just lead me to think that he wasn't a very good player.

Against a decent player, I mostly fold the ATos or I raise larger pre if I really want to make a play at him.

$5 is a tiny raise. I wanted to isolate him (players behind were pretty passive) with what I was pretty sure would be the best hand most of the time and just playing a pot in position vs. him.

As played, what kinds of hands could he have on the River?
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12-17-2018 , 01:19 PM
#4
Javanewt
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So you do have history. What hands did he show up with? Did he play passively every time? Did he c-bet, raise, etc.?

There is a big difference between "no history" and "I saw him raise about 6-9 times preflop in the 3-4 orbits that I was there."

Three or four orbits is enough to get a read. You obviously thought ATo was good.
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12-17-2018 , 01:25 PM
#5
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old hand
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Call. People do weird stuff when going all in for smaller amounts. There's a lot of "eff it, either I win a pot or I go home/reload." He's already made one erratic play by going $5 and calling.
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12-17-2018 , 01:25 PM
#6
canadiasian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
So you do have history. What hands did he show up with? Did he play passively every time? Did he c-bet, raise, etc.?

There is a big difference between "no history" and "I saw him raise about 6-9 times preflop in the 3-4 orbits that I was there."

Three or four orbits is enough to get a read. You obviously thought ATo was good.
That's a fair statement, I did have some limited information on him.

I remember an $8 raise with JJ that went to showdown and a $7 raise with AQos where he folded to aggression on the Turn.

My raise was the first 3! to his open.
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12-17-2018 , 01:30 PM
#7
Javanewt
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Was he aggressive with the JJ? Was there a Q or A when he had AQ? Did he c-bet? What position was he in?

He could have a ton of hands, but I really think you are beat. I still call, but only because I bet the river -- what worse is calling? KQ, KJ?

It was a mistake to bet the river when he only had $50 if you were not expecting to call his all-in.
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12-17-2018 , 01:43 PM
#8
canadiasian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
Was he aggressive with the JJ? Was there a Q or A when he had AQ? Did he c-bet? What position was he in?

He could have a ton of hands, but I really think you are beat. I still call, but only because I bet the river -- what worse is calling? KQ, KJ?

It was a mistake to bet the river when he only had $50 if you were not expecting to call his all-in.
With JJ he had an overpair by the River and ended up checking behind on the River (no value bet). With AQ, he did not connect and folded in late position.

I think a non-believing Kx or 9x might find a call on the River.

As played, I was not expecting the all-in, especially not for only $50 more (shouldn't be a bluff), but I also can't think of any value hands that he would take this line with (check 3 streets).

Hence the post...would be interested in hearing some range breakdowns.
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12-17-2018 , 02:07 PM
#9
Javanewt
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The guy seems pretty passive. Heck, he could have AK, AA, KK (doubtful, I hope), A9, maybe A6, a set, K9. Did he expect you to keep betting? You could be ahead of KQ, KJ.

Seriously, it's almost impossible to guess, but with the all-in on the river the way the hand was played, it's hard to believe you are ahead. Your tiny bet might have induced, though.
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12-17-2018 , 06:33 PM
#10
canadiasian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
The guy seems pretty passive. Heck, he could have AK, AA, KK (doubtful, I hope), A9, maybe A6, a set, K9. Did he expect you to keep betting? You could be ahead of KQ, KJ.

Seriously, it's almost impossible to guess, but with the all-in on the river the way the hand was played, it's hard to believe you are ahead. Your tiny bet might have induced, though.
I had the exact same thoughts. As played, my hand doesn't look like an Ace (how often would I 3! with AQ or AJ)?. Due to his small raise, I can't imagine it being a bluff. However, if he did have a value hand by the River (two pair+), shouldn't he just lead-out and hope that I call with QQ, JJ, AQ, AJ? Most of these hands would just check back River.

But again, I couldn't think of any value hands that he could have there.
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12-18-2018 , 08:32 PM
#11
canadiasian
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Any other takers on this before reveal?
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12-18-2018 , 08:39 PM
#12
sixsevenoff
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The three bet pre as a bluff is fine. I would've made it $20, not $15 though. I try to pot my raises, though $20 would be a round up on $18.

Flop, again, I would bet slightly more. I am c-betting 100% of the time that I 3 bet. I would bet $20 on the flop.

Turn seems like a standard check.

River, I like the small value bet. I can never fold this river to that raise.
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