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Old 12-28-2015, 01:18 AM   #1
XcellentLaydown
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1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

Villain is competent MAWG. Played a session with him yesterday where we both were winners but didn't really tangle at all. Generally TAG, but likes seeing a lot of flops in position. Definitely most competent villain at table.

Hero is 30 year old white male with TAG winning image.

Effective stacks $400

Hero raises to $8 utg with 8c9c (standard fold pre obviously but I'll sometimes open this for deception if stacks are deep). Villain calls 3 to my left all else fold.

Flop: 6d Js 8s
Hero bets $11, Villain calls

Turn: Ac
Hero bets $26, Villain thinks and calls.

River: 6c
Hero checks, Villain bets $50, Hero raises to $165

Thoughts?
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Old 12-28-2015, 01:28 AM   #2
JackInDaCrak
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Re: 1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

What are you repping here? Line makes no sense except JJ, AA
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Old 12-28-2015, 01:39 AM   #3
Willyoman
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Re: 1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

Wow. Creative. I don't hate it.

I actually think you can profitably c/c river. V certainly has T9 (maybe 16 combos given deep stacks) as well as 97s, 75s, and say maybe ~15 flush draw combos.

However, it's not impossible that V picks up the top pair A with ~8 non-premium Axs flush draws and then puts out roughly 1/2 pot in the river for thin value / because "you checked and I has top pair," etc.

So c/r might be a touch better as I think he often folds his top pair hands.

So like I said, I really don't hate it. I actually like it.

I think you can raise less. 150 max. Maybe 125 is OK. I think smaller looks stronger. 100 might be too small given pot odds. So I'd say 125-150 is fine.

Not concerned about repping thin for a lot of reasons.

I'm not folding the river, that's for sure. And I think we have just the right risk/reward given pot size, stack sizes and ranges to put in a raise between 2.5x and 3.0x.
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Old 12-28-2015, 03:40 AM   #4
whatisthis3
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Re: 1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

I agree with Willyoman about V's range, which makes a bluff very attractive. But instead of a C/R, I think that a triple barrel would convince me much more and also cost a lot less. A good PSB of $90 would probably be very effective.

I don't think anyone really checks with a set/FH/quads on the river here, esp against a V that has called 2 streets. You'd also get to show down with the nuts after a triple barrel, making that a tool available for later hands.

If V is competent, he should realize that you've now polarized yourself to really only repping AJ/AK, because your image is TAG and you opened UTG. It makes calling a C/R easier. I'm now getting 4:1 on call vs what would be 2:1 on a PSB triple barrel. What would he fold now after a C/R that he wouldn't fold to a bet given your perceived range?

Last edited by whatisthis3; 12-28-2015 at 03:56 AM.
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Old 12-28-2015, 05:32 AM   #5
daniel9861
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Re: 1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

Idk river seems pretty spewy to me. If you're going to go for it I think shove is the best sizing. 3x is just going to get sigh called by AK/AQ.
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Old 12-28-2015, 06:56 AM   #6
SuckoutKing
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Re: 1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

Bottom line is that his raise on the river makes no sense. Even if he's cold calling a SC like 76s in middle position against a competent EP raiser, does he actually get to the turn w/o exactly 76 or 65? If we're pessimistic, his value range for a river raise is pretty much 1 combo of 65s, 1 combo of 76s, 2 combos of AJs, 1 combo of 66, 3 combos of JJ, and 3 combos of AA. 11 total combos.

In reality, he probably 3bets AA pre and raises flop or turn with AA, AJ, JJ, or 66 because the board is wet. That leaves him an average of maybe 2-4 combos of value. You need to win less than 40% of the time to call here, so even if he only bluff-raises with 2 total combos, it's a call. I'm guessing he has more bluffs than that.

***The only way he doesn't have bluff combos is if he cold calls you with a much tighter range like 22+, AQ+, KQs.***
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Old 12-28-2015, 07:59 AM   #7
patjps
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Re: 1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

Given the stack sizes And the bet size on the turn I think we can expect most draws to call the turn. I think by check raising the river we represent a pretty strong hand. I would make it somewhere around 130, think it looks more like we are begging for a call. Having that said I like 3 barreling aswell since we have Aq/Ak/AA/JJ in our range and the rest of our range contains a lot of pp that bet the flop but shut down ott.
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Old 12-28-2015, 08:26 AM   #8
venice10
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Re: 1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

A competent villain wouldn't have bet the river with a medium strength hand. He's got a polarized range at best. Therefore, he'll fold is garbage hands that you beat already and will call or rai everything that crushes you.

The good (I guess) news is that I don't think you have a proper read on the villain at all. TAGs don't want to see a lot of flops in position, because that means they aren't aggressive, but rather passive. So his range isn't polarized and he'll likely fold a bunch of hands to your raise on the river that beat you the first time. To continue to do this, you'll need to c/r a number of strong hands to cover this bluff. I suspect at 1/2 you'll lose a lot of value because you'll see many villains check behind that would have called a river bet.

So I'd say it is probably +EV in isolation but sub-optimal in terms of win rate at your current playing level.
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Old 12-28-2015, 09:40 AM   #9
Willyoman
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Re: 1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

Yeah I'd have to think about whether a triple barrel is better.

Not sure why I also didn't consider Jx in villain's range.

Certainly a 3x barrel works better against Jx since that checks river.

Certainly a bunch of Jx is possible.

I do hate betting river and getting snapped by Axss.

Hmm. I'm not sure right now.

There's some merit to c/c, bet ~70 into 90, and c/r.

But perhaps V is a bit more polarized than I first thought when he bets river.

That would usually make a c/r pretty bad and c/c a bit better.

But 3x is a consideration. Will think about it.
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Old 12-29-2015, 07:50 PM   #10
XcellentLaydown
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Re: 1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

Alright, so in reality I simply check folded the river. The hand stuck with me as a winnable spot, however, and I think all of my options on the river have merits. So I thought about what I think the best line would be to win this pot and this is what I came up with.

I considered c/cing the river but decided I'd be annoyed if V sheepishly rolled As3s and it's good.

I thought about firing a third barrel, but I think Villain sigh calls with Axss quite often. Despite the better pot odds V gets offered on a river c/r than a third barrel, I think he calls at a much smaller frequency with the same hand that calls a third barrel.
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Old 12-29-2015, 08:24 PM   #11
Longinus
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Re: 1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

C/C > C/R river.
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Old 12-29-2015, 11:02 PM   #12
Nice_Guy_Eddie
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Re: 1/2 River Check Raise Bluff Line Check

I'd rather fire the third bullet. You repped AK/AA/JJ with your utg raise and firing the flop and turn. The second six doesn't change anything you might c/r with. I think villain folds a lot of Jx and missed draws.

Anyone else checking the flop? The flops hits a preflop calling range pretty hard, imo. Villain calls with a lot of SC, Jx hands, and mid-pp. I don't see the value in cbetting when we should expect to get called most of the time. I'd hope it checks through the flop and then I'd probably bet the turn. If bet into on the flop, I'd probably call once and give up to more aggression on the turn.

We tried to mix it up, got called oop, and the flop didn't really help us. I'd give up here pretty quick. Maybe I'm just a nit.
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