Quote:
Originally Posted by Areevaderchi
I said deadish meaning SB has a weak range. There's other factors that can sway you either way. But I think you're overestimating the populations line and play with AK/JJ. Even gobblegobble isos JJ here if he didn't limp in the first place.
Why do you think SB has a weak range? 65BB isn't that short and he's cold 4-bet shoving over an UTG open and a 3-bet. Of course he had 66 but I don't think it's reasonable to consider his range to be that wide.
{JJ+, AK}
{88+, ATs+, AQo+, KQs}
QQ
Against these ranges we have an EV of .3656*385+.4737*380-295 = $26. Tweak them if you want but I think this is optimistic. If you discount UTG by half each of AKo, JJ and AA, calling is about breakeven at $5 EV.
Possibly selection bias but I feel like most of the times I watch this spot go down or I'm in it they have AA and I roll my eyes.
It's also possible I'm biased by my player pool. I'm pretty sure that more than half of the guys I play with don't even 3-bet AK. It's like half the time a 3-bet gets shown down and I'm like "how is this always AA." Then I watch them cold call pre and showdown QQ and I go "oh."