It is 5am on Saturday (now Sunday). I am a regular at this casino and have been playing with V for a couple hours. Never seen him in the casino before. He is a middle-aged Mexican guy who speaks broken English.

He has been mostly passive so far, playing a lot of hands and frequently calling 1-2 barrels with any piece of the board. When he raises his standard sizing is $7 although I haven't seen a showdown from those hands. Have never seen him 3bet pre, or raise post-flop. I have $500 and he covers.

I am UTG with red QQ. I make it $12. MP calls who has been calling a lot preflop and giving up pretty easily post-flop. V in BB makes it $65 which is huge. I think this is either AA/KK/AK, and frankly weighted more to AA/KK. I still call because we are deep, I'm in position, and I am getting his stack if a Q hits. MP also calls.

Flop: Tc Jc 4h (~$185)

V thinks a little and bets $55. Absurdly small bet-sizing. Me and MP both call.

Turn: 9s (~$350)

V tanks for at least 30 seconds and bets $100. I pick up an OESD and have $280 behind. Hero?

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

Thank you.

if you really think his range is aa or kk you could open shove and try to get him to fold, but I think his range is wider then that, plus you still have the player in the middle to deal with.

on flop if he has not been aggro pre/hasn't been 3b i think you can just fold, even with small sizing. you only have ~10% equity against KK/AA. if he does this with AcKc then calling can be fine but pot is getting big very quickly. I would also be concerned about the fit or fold guy calling both pre and flop. by turn MP's range has lots of sets.

same thing on turn, you have direct odds to call if villain has AA/KK and AKcc in his range, but not if he just has better overpairs. you're also unlikely to get the rest of your stack in if you hit a straight. not giving an unknown bad player credit for running a big bluff with clubs here so I am folding.

Fold preflop.

I'm ok with set mining the flop. But stick to your read pre-flop and fold the flop now. Other than a Q, you hit your best turn card, and you still don't know what to do.

I agree, since if BB's range is almost exclusively AA/KK, we're not really deep enough to setmine.

^^ yup.

LOL@ fold pre, 300bb deep.

I would fold the flop, even though he priced a call perfectly. Going with my PF read, I'm beat and not willing to call 2 more streets of value vs him.

You don't fold QQ preflop when you are 300bb deep?

grunch.

if you're certain his 3bet range is almost always KK+ or always KK+, folding pre is close and not even close. you want 15:1 or os at the min to set mine and even then only against a tight range of QQ+ or KK+.

he's very passive but his sizing makes me feel it's not always KK+. looks like KK+ alot, sometimes AK and sometimes JJ. maybe discount AA since some people 3bet smaller with AA and even KK but 3bet huge with QQ-TT, AA.

there are 16 combos of AK and 12 total combos of KK+. i would likely flat pre and flat most flops unless he bets really big on flop (close to pot or more). folding turn blanks on all boards to a 2nd barrel. he bet really small on flop so i think AK may be in his range. I'd flat flop. As played on turn, hes not folding KK+ so i would flat turn and fold blank rivers. will bluff shove club rivers or Jx or 7x rivers only if i know he can fold KK+ in big pots getting good price

Do you fold queens ever pre? To every 3bet? Do you ever play 300bbs deep? These are serious questions.

Personally:
Not when the action goes like this, and it's a tiny fraction of my stack to call.

It would have to be a gross overbet/shove for the thought of folding pre to even cross my mind.

If I call the Flolp I am never folding this Turn. I think I would just flat to try and get MP 'dead' money in there and hope to hit a straight (not a set!!).

Big issue is that we will never get him to fold the River even if he checks to us IMO with only $180 behind ... No, you have $280 behind if/after you call. So you could shove $280 into $550 with another to act? Interesting spot ... How does this guy have more than $500 and you not see a showdown?

We should at least think about the flush here too.

I think I still flat and hope to get MP chips in there too ..

It is fine to flat PF and set mine this deep, very fine IMO!!

Calling the Flop is interesting, its cheap and we can float the card we got. Raising would force us to fold without seeing the Turn if he plays back at us so if I am going to put chips in, then I flat and evaluate. This is tough since he could have any pp or AK here and MP is behind.

Its one of those hands where the heart says yes and the math says no ... GL

I'd fold.
I think that we have 0 IO on any river that improves our hand.
We are occasionally drawing to a chop here (with someome having KQ), sometimes drawing very thin (vs KK and a club draw with 1 blocker) and almost never happy with any river that isn't an 8.

It looks good, but we really just don't have any good avenues for the river where we are happy.