Sup Guys.

Hand is pretty straight forward, doubt here was I didnt know if to commit or not.
Full ring table, know very little about the villain. He looks like an average 1/2 player MAWG. I joined the table about 30min ago. Seen nothing about this guy apart from a curious hand for a 1/2 player? Couple of hands earlier he folded KK to a 5bet saying very convincingly that he had KK and folded "cus he was sure a 5bet comes only from AA, and he has seen it too many times happening". Table was soft and passive.

Well on this hand then:
Hero has 360£
Villain V1 covers


We are UTG QQ and make it 11£.
Villain (V1) is MP1 raises to 30£
Villain (V2) is CO calls 30£
Hero here called, after a 3bet and a call i felt I was at least against a AK, and raising here would inflate too much a pot and put us in a diff spot on any coming Ahigh board...i think i wouldnt get called by worst anyway

Pot 93£
Flop
624
Hero checks
Villain (V1) bets 65£
Villain (V2) folds
Hero called

Pot 223£
Turn
6

Hero checks
Villain (V1) bets 155£
Hero takes time, not too much, about 2min and V1 suddenly calls the clock on me, after only 2min for a 155£ decision? Plus he was a bit annoyed, and as he called the clock he slightly punched the table..

Didnt know wether he was nervous about being called or was acting to get me calling. Another interesting thing is as the clock was counting down 10..he was with his hands on the cards eager to give them to the dealer as if I folded, even tho still had couple of secs and not decided yet...Those who understand better about psychology and tells will understand more what this meant, cuz I didnt tbh

So I tought we are against a pretty strong range that 3betted pre: TT+ or AK. I figured out we are about 50% in this hand, and if so, pushing or calling this deep would be a -EV situation so i folded. What would a 1/2 be doing by betting this much on this turn card? Dont believe it for a bluff tbh, only mostly for value.

Any toughts on this hand?

Thanks

agree with the decision to call the 3bet, but your reasoning isn't solid. we call b/c we think raising doesn't have value against his continuing range, but calling has more EV than folding.

as for the flop, id play the same.

the turn.. you need to compare the price you are getting to your assumed equity. firstly, lets assume this is an all-in bet..(it leaves you with 110 behind with a 430 pot size going to river). so, the bet is 265 and the pot is 485 (effectively, if we assume a shove here). you need to be good about 35% to break even. now you know what equity you need. next step is to estimate how much equity you have!

again.. your thought process is not solid. "i figured we are about 50% in this hand, so pushing or calling this deep would be -EV" makes no sense. i suggest you do some intense studying on basic poker math over the next few weeks. Poker Math that Matters by Owen Gaines. if you want to work through the book, id be glad to help you along.

you have to range your opponent.. if you think his range preflop is TT+, AK, then you can chisel that range based on each subsequent action. lets say he will continue to bet flop and turn with TT+, but not AK. if that's your read, then we have 50% equity as you said.. (we lose to AA/KK and we beat JJ/TT)... if that's the case, shoving/calling is most certainly NOT -EV.. it is HUGELY +EV. why? because of the dead money in the pot already.. remember, we already figured out that we need 35% equity to break even.. so 50% equity is massively +EV.

fwiw, i think the guy is stronger than TT+ here. if he is JJ+, then our equity is 35% and our play becomes break-even.. ie.. it doesn't matter if we call or fold.

As TeamKB says you need to get a better handle on poker maths.

FWIW here are my thoughts on V1. He says he 4bet KK and folded to a 5bet. That could well be BS - if he wanted to be really convincing he would just fold face up. The other possibility is he 4-bet something other than KK, was convinced he faced AA after 5bet and decided to try to convince the table his 4bets are really strong with his spiel about folding KK. Now we don't know if he 4bet a merged or polarised range but I suspect he is polarised because if he had AK/QQ he'd not make much fuss about protecting the perceived strength of his 4bet range.

I'm going out on a limb here but I'm guessing V1 4bets a polarised range and therefore 3bets a polarised range too. I.e. He 3bets and 4bets something like KK+ AXs/KXs SC and flats QQ-22 and some AK/AQ and Broadway hands.

That means V1 probably perceives unknown hero's call of his 3bet to be similar to his own flatting range but weighted towards bigger pairs and AK/AQ due to hero opening UTG and overcalling his 3bet OOP.

Then V1 bets flop into two players so likely for value and infrequently a bluff with equity. Hero's x/c is going to narrow hero range to over pairs+ at this point. V1 probably doesn't expect to fold overpairs much so his turn bet is almost certainly for value. Given his polarised 3bet range he therefore has KK+ trips (A6s/K6s/76s/65s) or boats.

Hero should fold to the turn bet IMO.

Also if V1 had KK in the previous hand folding face up will sometimes cause the 5bettor to turn his hand over too out of politeness, for fun or to induce tilt by showing a bluff. Fact V1 didn't show while claiming to fold KK means he either had KK but didn't bother trying to get info out of 5bettor for some reason or he didn't have KK. Arguably he could have more happily shown QQ-TT because it is more likely he is correct in reading 5bettor for a bigger pair and therefore more likely to look clever/induce tilt by showing.

Simplest explanation is V1 was 4betting light and therefore couldn't show a hand to match his spiel.