I already analysed the heck out of this hand, stoved it with a bunch of ranges. I'm mostly interested in how we analyse this spot in game.

V1 is a drunk fish who doesn´t fold pf. Not folding until the river with any piece. Stuck around 1K. $250

V2 is a SLAG, opens a lot of hands pf, though has sizing tells. Fairly straight forward postflop though he is capable of playing draws aggressively. On a previous night he check raised me big OTF with what I think was the NFD or a combo draw and I folded TP. $520

Hero has a snug TAG image. V2 might think I am a tad bit nitty, but he respects my game. Covers


8handed.

Two limpers including V1, V2 raises to $20 OTB, hero raises to $60 w. QQ in BB, fish calls, V2 calls.

*V2 has a real hand with this sizing: perhaps 88+,KJs+,AJ+,KQ. I'm pretty sure he 4 bets KK+ especially with V1 in the hand.

(~$180) 852

Hero bets $120, V1 shrugs and calls (he's not acting), V2 tanks and shoves, hero?

Brutal.

$20 seems like a pretty big raise preflop. I'd consider calling because the raise alone should normally fold out the limpers. I don't have a problem with the 3! though.

I don't think V2 shoves with a made flush. He most likely has the Ac or Kc. Nut and Kc flushes would most likely call. If he does have a flush, it's a worse flush than a Q and you have about 25% equity. You have 34% equity against set. You're basically flipping AcXx and KcXx hands. You also might get lucky and V2 shoved with JcJx. God knows what V1 has, but it's not a flush or he'd piss himself and shove. Add the dead money plus whatever V1 has and I think you have to call. Good luck!

If V2 shoves JJ, TT and 99 as well as shoving overs with a club then I think you have to call here. To be honest I don't see how he can think he is good with any of these pairs <=JJ given the action (your image plus protected pot because of fish makes your hand face up).

At the same time I see players making massive mistakes with marginal overpairs all the time. Put it the other way: Can V2 actually not shove JJ/TT? Can he not shove JJcx TTcx?

Clearly V2 can't have many sets with such a low flop. He is also missing some of his flush combos due to you holding Qc. It is pretty hard for him to be ahead here whereas he can have a lot of nfd/2nd-nfd if he flats your 3bet with AK (which he probably does).

Another thing that crosses my mind is that V2 can think you are 3betting wider than usual to isolate the fish and that will make him even more likely to shove JJ, maybe TT too.

Even if he does have a set or slow played KK/AA you have equity vs all sets, small flushes and any overpair without a club. You are clearly way ahead of the fishy station and he is clearly putting the rest of his stack in. You are getting good odds.

I haven't done any maths, just going on what I'd be able to think in game: I'm not overjoyed by this spot but I'm going to make the call anyway. I've folded these type of spots before and seen much worse hands than mine gii at least as many times as I've gii vs a better hand.

Pretty easy call. You are either ahead or have outs to move ahead getting 2.7:1 (including V1's last $70) in a pot with an overpair and an SPR of 2.6. He's not shoving the nuts so he either has AKx or an overpair worse than QQ (with a club) or an unlikely JT.

Either way, you have enough equity to call.

I agree no one is shoving the nut flush. I think smaller flushes can get shoved here but there just aren't many available.

Tough spot. Hate putting 260 BBs at risk with just one pair, but already invested 90 BBs when V2 shoves.

The only combos that crush you are AcAx (3 combos), KcKx (3 combos), AcKc, and maybe AcJc and KcJc. Weaker flushes would have folded pre. And you think KK/AA would 4-bet pre.

Much more concerned about V1 flopping a flush (or set) than V2 as fish is calling pre with more junk and suited connectors.

If I were V2 here, and did flop a flush, I would shove here. Hero is representing a huge hand, possibly AcAx or KcKx, neither hero nor V1 is slowing down, and there are action-killing cards that can come (another club if my flush is K-high, or an A or K if hero has KK or QQ). Plus, nobody thinks I'm playing a made flush that fast. So I shove.

Having said all that, I think this is a very crying call. Expect V1 and/or V2 to have a lot of equity. Ranging both V's is tough to do, ultimately EV might be fairly close to zero.

If V2 is shoving 99-JJ hands here, buy him a drink or two and settle in for a long session.

It's not even a crying call, it's just a standard call. This is the nature of playing 3! pots - they are high variance. But variance is the source of our profit and people do stupid things in large pots. If you are not comfortable playing big pots with one pair hands then don't 3! pre, but kookie is so I'm sure he called it off.

FWIW I think this Villians shoving range is AKx, all flushes (though not always shoving with the nuts), maybe AQx, very unlikely JJx or TTx.

At the table, how do we roughly compute our equity?

Estimate to make the numbers easier. You have ~$300 left. You put in close to $200, plus V1 stack ($250), and V2 stack ($500). Rough estimate is you need 3:1. So you need 25% equity against 2 players.

You can guess by the action and preflop calling ranges that it's very unlikely either villain has a made flush. You're about 50% against a club over card and have plenty of outs against sets and non-club overpairs.

You're only really screwed if someone has the Ac or Kc and the other has a made flush or set.

Time for hero to Shrug as well and call.

I don't think we are dominating too many hands that are willing to call, theres just too much money in the middle to give up on. Likely flipping against Axcc or made hands that require us to hit a Q or club.

Given villain descriptions I think it's a call but I don't think your EV is going to be high. V1 can be anywhere from way behind to ahead. V2 is most likely drawing to beat you but probably you are drawing to beat him if not. What will cut into your profits here is that there are more cases where you are in really bad shape then in really good shape. Your being really good here only happens in rare situations where both V1 and V2 have lower pairs and lower or no flush draw. There are more cases where either V1 or V2 has a better hand and V1 or V2 has a higher flush draw, leaving you drawing to a set or better.

This is really a worst case scenario for trying to compute equity. V1 is so wide here that counting his possible hands is hard and V2 has a good number also. There are lots of possible combinations of being ahead and behind with widely different equity. Unless you are really good at doing math in your head, in this sort of situation you just have to work from experience and guess work your equity.

The situations where you have more opponents are actually usually easier to analyze. Either you have the nuts and can look at the odds of being beaten or you can assume somebody has you beat and you can look at the odds of hitting the winning hand yourself.

Kookie, if his range is:

88+,KJs+,AJ+,KQ

and you have the Qc, and he's mostly not shoving the nut flush, then what flushes can he have? KcJc is the 1 combo. At this point, you've also put in nearly 35% of your stack and have overlay from V1 to boot. At the table, you should know you're getting excellent odds here. You can do further analysis... but it seems like a very clear call.

I mean, look at AJ+. That includes an enormous # of combos with 1 high club. KQ is never more than a 1 club KcQx hand with your blocker. 50% of 99-JJ have a club, though I know you think it's unlikely he ships with those. 88 itself is obviously possible and not ideal, we're getting what, nearly 2:1 here? It's a slightly +EV call f villain flips over 88.

Excellent exercise! I might very well have the clock called on me.

I've spent 15 minutes tryin' to come up with a way to do it at the table & can't. You're up against 2 players. Will be interesting to see if anyone answers your question.

With the range you gave V2, the only non-nut flush he has is KJ, right?

I did find that if you put him on KJ or 88, that's 4 combos.

If he shoves with AJo+, that's 12 combos.
12/16 = 75% of the time you have the best.

Interesting to note that after the flop you have 79.2% equity going to the river vs. his whole range.

Take 99-JJ out of his shoving range and you have 73.4% equity.
That includes him having QQ. If he doesn't you have a whoppin 0.2% more equity.

So, in this scenario anyways, dividing the combos that you beat by all the possible combos he shoves with, gives you a rough estimate of your equity vs. V2. I think..........

SLAG? Super Loose Asian Guy?

Anyway, lots of good analysis already by others, so I don't think I can contribute much.

You kind of have to call here.

I wouldn't attempt to do a lot of maths in this spot. There are too many unknowns for me to think significant maths is worth the effort/time at table. I'd work out the rough pot odds like Nice Guy Eddie suggests and, like he also suggests, make a judgement based on experience. Do the maths later for a few different ranges to see if you made a good decision or not.

Well, I don´t feel so dumb. lol.

Well in game this was my elementary school approach:

If we give V2 4 combos of AcKx, 1 of 3 combos of AcQx, 3 of 4 combos of flushes, 3 combos of 88 (In game I left out 88).

[(5x.5%)+(3x0%)+(3x.33)/11]=3.5/11=~32%

If we give V1 15% equity (uneducated guess), assume he takes an equal share from V2 and hero, we are left with 25%ish equity.

Using pot odds we need slightly better than 25% to call.

I am a station so of course I called.

I played around with ranges in stove afterwards and figured I actually had somewhere between 20-24% equity, so not so far off.

Excellent! I just don't see where the 4 combos of made flushes are. You said his range was 88+,KJs+,AJ+,KQ that's only AcJc, AcKc & the KcJc = 3. It doesn't make any difference since you didn't use 4 for your total of 11 combos, however, you have him shoving with all of his nut flushes all of the time. Not as you described previously. Of course, with that range, he only has 2 nut flushes.

However, to be fair to the readers who were told you weren't sure he'd shove with the nut flush.......should you only count one when doing your math?

I assumed he never would.

Is he not always shoving with AcQx because he will sometimes be too concerned you may have QQ or a hand with a K and wants to have 2 overs [or top kicker with his K] along with the flush draw?

Also, I don't see 1 of 3 combos of AcQx, only 2 since you have 2 Qs. That's a typo right?
It doesn't make any difference in your equation anyways, since you used 1 to come up with a total of 11 combos.

In any event, your math isn't consistent with what you told us earlier, is it?

In any event, this time I gave V2 a range of AcKx, AcKc, AcJc, KcJc, 88 & then using pokercruncher found a range for V1 that gave him 14.4% equity. You still have 33.1% equity & I didn't give V2 any AcQx hands. Shouldn't make much difference since you only gave him 1.

I had to put V1 on a range of 9.2% for him to get 14.4% equity.
I would imagine you could pick & choose the hands he has so that he has 15% equity without them all being premium hands.

However, a 9.2% range is not one that I would put " a drunk fish who doesn´t fold pf. Not folding until the river with any piece....[and].....V1 shrugs and calls (he's not acting)....."

I took that to mean: "I'm drunk, I've got my piece.....fruck them clovers.....maybe they'll bring me luck!"

So, I wasn't on the same line of thinking that you were at all......not even close.

I'm pretty terrible at posting. I counted AcTc as well, hence the 4 combos that I discounted to 3. Discounting to 2 might be better.

Yeah, 1 of 2 combos of AcQx

If we use 2 combos of flushes it works out to 35% equity.

@ZuneIt

Just a quickie:

Board: 8c5c2c
Equity Win Tie
MP3 10.55% 10.52% 0.02% { 88, 55, 22, A8s, A5s, A2s, K8s, K5s, K2s, Q8s, Q5s, J8s, T8s, 97s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o, A5o, A2o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 97o+, 85o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o }
BU 66.66% 66.64% 0.02% { 88, AcKc, AcJc, AcTc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd }
BB 22.79% 22.79% 0.00% { QdQc }

I just came into my office to post the following: I just realized how freakin' tired I was when my wife came home & our spoiled rotten chocolate lab started her whinin' like a little bitch......which she doesn't do when my wife isn't home.

After calming down from that all that crap, I chilled & realized that I frucked up with poker cruncher.......i.e., chose only AcKs, instead of AcKs,d,h.....etc., etc.

Taking a cursory look at your range for the fish, I see what you've done, which is cool, but I'm too tired. Maybe Friday.

I will note One thing you missed: You're still counting too many made flushes because you are counting AcKc in your 4 combos of AcKx & then again in your 3 of 4 combos of flushes. Only thing is you're not counting it in your total of 11, because you removed 1, which, makes it look like he doesn't always shove with a made flush but he is.

Unless I'm really freakin' tired..then in that case I can only hope you forgive me.

If you have AcTc/Jc/Kc & KcJc that's 4 combos, you count 3 of them & then AcKc, you are counting all possible made flushes as shoving.

It's all good though, as you aren't counting AcKc twice. Just making it appear as though V doesn't always shove with the nut flush.

Merry Christmas!

I'm not dumb - just lazy plus years of internet poker have conditioned me to reflexively make every decision in under 20s

Seriously though; for some reason I just find it very hard to hold numbers in my head when I'm under pressure. Combine this with doubt over the range(s) I'm assigning and I honestly feel I'm better off going with my instincts in the moment.


FWIW I put V2 on:

AJcc 88hd 88hs 88ds JJch JJcd AcKs AcKd AcKh


I have a crappy windows phone with no poker apps and, as you guessed, I'm too lazy to do further analysis in my head

Merry Christmas all!

I'm wonderin' what if:
V would shove with the nut flush the same amount of time he'd shove with AcX

88/KcJc is 4 combos

AcKx/Qx is 5 combos. Or take out the AcQx as it gives him advantage of having 2 overs to go with the nut flush....or so he would think......which is the case here. So 3 combos.


AcKc, AcJc, AcTc is only three combos.

Now he's shoving with the nut flush as often as he has the nut flush, along with KcJc & 88.

Since Ragequit99 is in England, he can continue to play on-line & has probably played 100s of thousands of hands there. So he can rely on his instincts a lot more.

I would venture to guess, that if Ragequit99 was to go back in time, taking his experience with him, to Texas when Doyle & then others were playing & he had the bankroll, he'd do just fine.

I, on the other hand, have not played since Black Friday.

Which is why Ragequit99 is another poster I try and follow.

Cbet smaller. I like $90-$100 much better than $120 here. As played, this is a crying call.

I do have a lot of experience of online play - not much of it winning unfortunately

Online I'm now up something around £500 but that is after over 1 million hands online 2NL up to 100NL (beating up to $10NL and break even or losing above that). Most recently a lot of zoom games on Stars. 2NL zoom is much harder than live 200NL IMO.

Last 5 sessions of live 1/2 I'm up £1,000 so I now view online as practice for live. I deliberately don't use my software and switch between normal and zoom tables to get practice at reading players and just seeing a lot of hands fast so I get an intuitive feel for the game.

I just hope I never suffer the downswings live that I've had online! My bank manager would want a word with me...