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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 12-29-2013, 08:50 PM   #1
BenT07891
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1/2 - QJo call river bet?

Reads: Late 20s white guy who is fairly decent. Tighter than the average player at the table pre flop, but not super tight. I have seen the following two showdowns from him: He twice bluffed a missed draw OOP, heads up on the river after the turn checked through. Both times there was a flop bet and a call. When he was called both times, he showed his bluff. His sizing was in the $25ish range. Haven't seen any showdowns from him other than these, but he's been pretty standard TAG.

My image is probably really tight because I've been card dead pre flop.

A super loose player limps from MP. I limp behind in the CO with QJ and villain limps on the button. I have a $130 stack and other players cover (please no comments on rebuying...they aren't welcome. If you want, just pretend villain has $130 and I cover). SB completed and BB checks.

Flop: J56. I bet $9 and only villain calls. Turn is the 5. I check/call $12. River is the K. I check, he bets $35. Hero?

I'll post my own analysis after a few replies and later the results.

Last edited by BenT07891; 12-29-2013 at 08:56 PM.
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Old 12-29-2013, 08:54 PM   #2
Ray Horton
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Re: 1/2 - QJo call river bet?

nh

nothing to say but you're good/splitting here a lot
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Old 12-29-2013, 09:02 PM   #3
Angrist
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Re: 1/2 - QJo call river bet?

V has shown the ability to take stabs when he senses weakness. Your turn check did that. I call here an expect to be good often, chopping sometimes, and only rarely beat. He could have a 5, or a K, but there are more J's and 6's and complete airball stabs in his range.
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Old 12-30-2013, 12:25 AM   #4
ValueBluff
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Re: 1/2 - QJo call river bet?

I would raise pre.
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Old 12-30-2013, 12:37 AM   #5
a12
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Re: 1/2 - QJo call river bet?

Fold.
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Old 12-30-2013, 12:55 AM   #6
mikko
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Depending table dynamics I would raise pre.

Lead is good on flop. Would bet/fold the turn.

As played it looks like value bet on river and I would fold vs tight player. Even with his image.
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Old 12-30-2013, 01:14 AM   #7
Duke0424
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Re: 1/2 - QJo call river bet?

IMO limping behind in this spot is a mistake

You limp behind with speculative hands to make big hands and win big pots. Minimal risk, maximal reward.

QJo is a value hand. You're crushing his limping range and can outplay him post-flop with position. You're rarely going to win a huge pot with QJo in a multi-way limped pot. You're just losing too much value by limping behind.
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Old 12-30-2013, 08:11 PM   #8
BenT07891
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Re: 1/2 - QJo call river bet?

Onto my own analysis:

Preflop: I can see the argument for folding. KJ is playable, but QJ might not be. It's close...

Flop: Very standard

Turn: I planned to fold to a large turn bet based on avoiding pot commitment. Calling a large turn bet will possibly result in me committing to this hand, and it's going to be -EV to put $130 into a $10 pot with TPMK. But he bet small, so I called.

River: The only reason I'm calling is because of the possibility of 78 or 34. These hands fit pre flop and flop pretty well, and they might bet river.

Overall I ranged him at:

Very likely: AJ, KJ

Possible: 78, 34, flopped two pair, flopped set, weaker J-X or QJ which now chop.

The "very likely" hands are hands most villains would take this line with 100% of the time. The possible hands are hands most villains would take far less than 100% of the time.

Without pokerstoving it (because I don't bring my laptop on the table...not enough room) at the time, I skewed his range a bit more towards the missed OESDs and called.
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Old 12-30-2013, 11:00 PM   #9
mtagliaf
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Re: 1/2 - QJo call river bet?

This is a no doubt about it preflop isolation raise.

The reason this river decision is so hard is because you're out of position. A preflop isolation would usually fix that.

For more info, please go read my favorite 2+2 thread of all time, found here. One of the example hands is even queen-jack.
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