Typical 1/2 game in my local casino. It's been a pretty tight game. I believe we're 8-handed at this point. Stacks are $300 effective.
Hero: 30s male. Been tight, a little card dead. Chatty, but not excessively so.
V1: 40s male. I don't know him personally, but he is a long-time regular in the card room. Every time we see each other, we exchange a nod or something similar. We recognize each other as winning players. I would believe there's a mutual respect between us.
V2: 30s male. New to table. Been straddling. Mostly irrelevant.
V3: 50s male, mostly irrelevant.
V2 straddles. V3 calls in MP. Hero looks at Qc10c in the HJ and raises to $15. V1 quickly calls on the button. V2 and V3 call.
I range V1 on medium to strong PPs and big suited cards. I really don't think he's splashing around with a weak, speculative hand due to his respect for my open.
Flop ($60): 10s 9c 6c
Checks to Hero who bets $35. V1 verbally asks for verification of my bet aniunt and calls fairly quickly. V2 and V3 fold. After they fold, V1 says something to the effect of "I should've raised, but I didn't."
I don't think V1 smashed the flop. I think he has a good/decent hand, but is weary of the board. AcJc maybe? Pocket jacks or queens?
Turn ($130): Kd
Hero checks. V1 checks.
Are we ok slowing down here? Or should I be betting $70ish?
River ($130): 3h
Hero checks. V fairly quickly verbalizes a $60 bet. Hero?
The only likely hand I think he bets here that I beat is AcJc. He could be betting something like AcKc obviously. I think he's good enough to make a thin VB with jacks or queens too. He's also good enough to bet with a missed draw. I think we would have heard from a straight/set on the turn.
Any advice on our river play or other parts of the hand are welcome. I should also say my mind isn't very clear these days. I'm closing in on 200 hours of BE/slightly losing play. This was all preceded by about 475 hours of winning play around 10bb/hour. So my confidence is really starting to waver. Thanks in advance.
It is all well and good that he's a regular and knows you at the table. However, how likely is it that he'll stab at the pot if it appears to be abandoned with air? That's really want you want to know about him. After 600 hours in a poker room, you should know that about him. Once you have that, it just becomes an EV calculation.
As for your other problem, it happens frequently to tight players. Even the dullest players eventually will figure out that if you are playing tight and only bet if you have TP or better, that they can just fold if they can't beat it or play along if they can. You're going to have to step up your game if you want to continue winning. Not knowing what to do in this situation against a regular suggests you aren't doing much with your game.
If villain is a winning regular he probably has some bluffs in his range but how many is entirely villain and history dependent. Particularly with the small crying call sized bet, villain has to know how you play AT/JJ type hands and if you have a fold button to small bets. What do you think villain does with 98/76 in this situation?
On the river you have some showdown value and should call some of the time. My inclination is too fold more then call because your hand makes flush draws less likely and the KX flush draws beat you anyways. If he will go for thin value with QQ/JJ/AT after you check twice then he has more hands that beat you in his range then ones you beat.
This hand in general is a common situation of having a hand with some showdown value against a villain who has some bluffs and some value in his range. There is no simple solution or single best pattern. The flop is a standard bet, with the rare check to check/raise or chase as a mix up option. The turn and river are more erratic and depend on villain and your history with villain but could be bet or checked.
Question: if V1 has J10, do you think he would take this line? That's a hand that plenty of regs will play in position for $15 preflop. He calls the flop with TPGK. He checks behind on the turn for pot control. He bets the river because now he figures he must be good.
That seems like an entirely reasonable line that I would often see from J10 here.
He can also have bluffing hands like Jc8c, AcJc etc.
JJ, QQ, and AcKc seem unlikely to me. Villain has been waiting all night for a hand like that. He didn't 3! preflop, which means that he figures he's hiding the strength of the hand. And then he just calls the flop and checks behind on the turn? ...Nah, if he has and of those hands, he's not letting the turn check through.
So I think you're losing to A10, K10, QJ, and 7c8c here. I think you're beating his J10, 108, and 107, and I think you've successfully induced a bluff from some portion of his range (unknown how much of it).
You checked turn to induce a bet. He bet. Barring a physical tell, I'm sticking to the plan and calling here.
Bet the turn to get value from flush draws JT,98,T8,etc and possibly fold out JJ,QQ,AT His speech about not raising the flop is more likely to get you not to bet the turn as it is the truth. As played I'd call the river
Bet the turn to get value from flush draws JT,98,T8,etc and possibly fold out JJ,QQ,AT His speech about not raising the flop is more likely to get you not to bet the turn as it is the truth. As played I'd call the river
I think this is most likely the case. He's on a FD and wanted to see river for free.
This call is player dependent. If he checks the turn with TPGK then it's a call, but if historically checks the turn with a hand like A10 it's obviously a fold.
Could 78cc be in his range? He noted that he wanted to raise your flop bet. He could have flopped the straight and is protecting his equity against a higher flush. What is his range on the button?
Betting $60 into a pot of $130 gives you 1:3 so how often are you good here? His small river bet makes me think that he's betting for value and he has Q10 beat.
Bigger on the flop and close to pot on the turn with the added equity we picked up combined with the K smashing our preflop raising range. Continue to sell your story.
I don't know how deep the levels run between winning players at this level in your room, but if I'm V1, then the other Vs very much do matter in the hand as it impacts my perception of your sizing choice on a not-so-great flop for a straightforward opening range. With that, I very much like your flop sizing, and AP, once HU w BTN, I would pretty much plan on bet bet shoving this runout.
I don't know how deep the levels run between winning players at this level in your room, but if I'm V1, then the other Vs very much do matter in the hand as it impacts my perception of your sizing choice on a not-so-great flop for a straightforward opening range. With that, I very much like your flop sizing, and AP, once HU w BTN, I would pretty much plan on bet bet shoving this runout.
Because V should be capped, he isn't a fish, the only Kx he has blocks most hands he'd expect hero to bluff with, and he still has some hero calls with worse that otherwise would have ck-back.
