V: Older 40/50years Korean or Japanese reg sits down seat to my right. I've seen him in the poker room before and he has seen me. He definitely recognizes me, seen me on multiple occasions cashing out/sitting with huge stack. I know that he competent. I know he is capable of making moves. I would consider him to be a tight player. First orbit after he sits down wins one decent sized pot by betting on the river hand never got to showdown. his stack (350) he buy in for the max 300, 2 black chips and 4 green chips. Then this hand happens shortly after..

folds to maniac in the HJ who limps, V limps in CO,
Hero early 20's Asian playing TAG (350) picks up Q10dd on the button raises to 13. Blinds both fold, maniac in the HJ calls, V checks his cards again waits a split second, almost throws his cards away, but then calls..

Flop comes Qs Jh 2s Pot ($42)

Checks to hero, bet 27, was going to bet 25 but I had a blue chip just sitting there

fold. V raises to 60. I cut out 35 more in chips wait 5 seconds and make the call.

Turn comes Js pot ($162)
V checks, hero checks.

River, 7d pot (162)
V leads out for 95

Hero? Should I have folded on the flop? Bet on the turn? Call this river?

Cool hand. Lots of game flow/meta considerations going on. Deep stacks too...

Limping preflop would be okay, but I like building initiative IP so like the raise. But we should keep in mind that's it's an RIO hand and we need to flop huge to play a big pot this deep.

Flop is very close...I generally prefer to check back with medium strength hands, and against opponents who might check raise. This board at least grazes their range, too. But I still think we need to bet it here since the board is a somewhat wet.

Where my line would diverge from yours is the flop call. I would just fold it there.

Yes, he could have a draw. But Ax is in pretty good shape against us, and our T makes his straight draws less likely. On principle I would call here with AQ/KQ but fold worse Qs and pairs of jacks. (You know, so he can't just check raise us left and right.)

The problem here is lack of history. If our villain always or almost always check raises his draws we can just call him down light all the time. But if he only does it sometimes with his draws and his x/r range is more weighted towards made hands I would hate calling him here with QT no redraw. It seems weak with only 1 set to fear and so many draws, but when I hate a spot due to lack of info, it's okay to fold and find a more favorable battlefield.

The other option is to just station him down as the board bricks. This line is probably more optimal than my nitty one. Since we called the flop x/r, let's stay with the plan for future streets.

Turn is a nice brick, no way he's x/r'ing us with AJ/KJ/JT. Actually it's great since it lowers his QJ combos. I like the check back...this is a legitimate spot to pot control. We want to be comfortable calling the river when some of draws complete since he can bluff ghost puts. We lose less to better made hands. We also keep his range wider and let him bluff the river, and we don't want to get x/r again. Maybe this gives him what he wanted (a free card with his draw) but again this is a spot where I think we have to cede something to our competent villain. There are situations where we must be ruthless, but this is a situation were we should be cautious imo. Thank god he checked.

Now call the river. $95 makes me want to puke because it looks like such a fat value bet, but he could be trying to level us with it, the board bricked again, and our plan was to station him.

In order for the villain to have at a worse TP hand than you enough of the time, he needs to be about to limp/call Q8 pf, c/r the flop and bet the river. That's pretty rare in a LLNSL player. Most players want to get to show down cheap in that situation.

So we are really just looking at whether he can bluff a busted FD over 37% of the time. Does he make a move this often on the river? If he does, you call. If not, you fold. You know him, you can decide. Most LLSNL players won't be bluffing this often in this situation.

Cbetting this guy with this hand in this board is inane. Nothing better folds, nothing worse calls, most of his draws are a favorite otf. Worse, we know nothing specific about his tendencies that we can exploit yet, and going to war with a competent reg with no intel is suicide.

I just go into check/herocall mode here. On a Js turn I pitch the hand and wait for a better spot.

On this flop we generally have the best hand here 3 handed and we should be betting our hand for value and protection. This is a super draw heavy board and it would be really bad to give a free card and let some hit a gut shot, pick up outs to a backdoor flush draw, hit 2 pair or trips etc etc etc.

As played I like folding to his raise on the flop here. I think his range is way ahead of us. His sizing seems more like top pair+ than it does a draw. At least we are in position, but all we have is top pair bad kicker and a backdoor straight draw on a 2 flush board.

Turn is an easy check, with the flush hitting we don't beat anything. River is an easy fold. We still don't beat anything. Villain should never have a naked straight draw here. If he does, he's not as good as you think. If he ever shows up with a worse queen here then he is a really bad player (ie doesn't fit villain description at all).

Seems like an easy bet fold on the flop. Not going to the felt with this one.

math is off.

cbet is good imo, esp with the presence of the fish, lots of worse can call, and you can still valuebet most turns comfortable. b/f though imo, esp vs competent villain.

as played though, if we call otf, we think he is capable of c/ring a draw, and everything missed, so river is a call, we get 2.5:1.

Math looked good to me.

95/ (162+95)= 0.369


So I guess he is off. By 0.001.


That bastard.

am i totally off here? i thought if villain bets pot, we need to be good 33% of the time. how do we have to be good 37% if he bets less than pot? i´m totally brain crashed right now

Meh I misread the post; didn't see the J brought the flush in. Now I think river is a fold. We just beat T9..

lol yeah, me too, didn´t see it as well, also think it´s a fold now. but still am totally lost on the most simple poker maths here, could someone care to elaborate? how often do we have to be good otr for it to be a profitable call?

I reread the post and I think he's edited it actually.

If the villain pots it we have to be good 33% of the time to break even. Make a quick example in your head with a $2 bet into a $2 pot and run it three times where you win one in three and you'll see that we win the $4 in the middle once and he wins our $2 twice. Then mess around with it --- say you win it 40% and run it 100 times and tally up your wins, then say you win 25% and tally up your losses.

He bet a little more than half which means we need to be good a little more than 25%.

If we want an exact calculation we just look at how much money we are putting in this pot. In the $2 example we are putting $2 into a pot that will be $6 at showdown, or 33%. So we just add up his bet, our call, and the dead money, then divide by the bet.

There's likely an easier way to do it in the game on the fly, but just knowing that a pot bet means you have to be good 33%, half pot 25%, third pot 20%, fourth pot 16% , etc will get you pretty far in a live game.

yo
95/257 = 0.369
1/.369 = 2.71 means we get 2.71: 1 on our call
that equals 26.9%
what i need is to get from 2.71:1 to the correct %, i did 1/3.71, dunno bout this
is this correct?

thanks for the responses guys. I did end up folding the hand after tanking for a little bit, he checked his cards again after i folded, looked at the first one, didn't show it, but showed me his second card which was the 2 of hearts. he said he had a set of 2's on the flop, but would he check after he turned a boat?

thats why i said i think he owned my soul.. he said "good fold, i had a boat" but why would he show me the second card and not the first if both were deuces

he was pretty friendly and told me he checked the turn because he thought I might of had QJ. he seemed like he was relieved after I folded though so idk man

This is correct.

Mathing from my phone at work.


Also wanted to call Venice a bastard.

Ironically, I math far more accurately at the table. Brain just goes there. I make more mistakes in my ev calcs later.

I'm inclined to believe him. Everything you describe points to him having 22 and not deceiving you.

He thought about folding deuces preflop then decided he had odds to set mine. What other hands does he play that have a deuce in them? Very few. Does he really take this line with A2? Sometimes players just show one card to give us a cute puzzle to solve while still being friendly.

He was probably legitimately scared of playing a huge pot deepstacked with a possibly second best full house. He may feel obligated to play a big pot since there's a flush out there, but he knows (since you're good) that if stacks go in you are much more likely to have the better full house than the flush. His thinking is a little mubsy but he's 40/50 years old and experienced. He's been here before and had it go really badly. He's relieved to win a smallish pot and not lose his stack. You came closer to owning his soul here than he did yours, although giving up on the pot was pretty standard once the flush came.

Maybe we should've bluffed him off the full house instead. Well, no, he's more likely to have QJ than 22, so never mind.

Either you're the worlds greatest hand reader or your assigning too narrow of ranges (one hand).

Lol dude, when he shows us a card, that narrows his range a lot. Go ahead and put him on 23 that owned us with a sucker-value-bet-bluff on the river if you want.

check flop. Yes the board is wet, so what? Our hand isn't all that strong anyway, it's not worth "protecting".

I would rather keep the pot small with this small hand, and keep villains range wide, than make it bigger.

He didn't show that until the hand was over.

I would have liked a limp otb instead of a raise. Check behind on the flop. TPWK isn't that strong of a hand. Checking behind the turn is good. Fold the river.

You might have been able to steal the pot ott to be honest. So a possible b/f ott. But it looks like he has a monster.

Hell, everyone does that.

FWIW, bluffing on the turn occurs much more often in LLSNL today than 4 years. I think it is a big leak most people's game. Of course, I look like OMC so the automatic assumption is that I learned how to cbet, but give up automatically on the turn.

Flush hit on the turn....

Im bet/folding the flop. You get value from flush draws and keep the initiative. Calling isnt terrible tho as long as you are done with the hand unimproved.

Cant do anything but check the turn.

Fold river, not close imo. If you call i would expect to see qj, 22, and mostly random small flushes with hands like 45s


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Bet flop. Has anyone ranged QTs equity vs late position l/c ranges on a QJ2ss boards? Limpers don't even need to have that loose of a flop calling range to make this a pretty simple bet for value, at worst being about a 60/40 vs a cont range.

Grunch: I don't mind a limp behind pre, but I prefer the raise, just have to be weary of the maniac.

I like the cbet and its sizing. But I think continuing against the described V is -EV. The flop is a clear fold.