UTG($90) raises to $15, folds to hero in middle/late with JJ. hero?




UTG- mid-late 30's, buys in for 50bb. weak/tight for the most part. he sometimes bets the same amount on flop+turn with marginal hands like TPWK or middle pair. he has 4b jammed AA pre and showed, he also opened the same amount from EP and bet flop/jam turn with AA. he usually opens to $6-$8, but everytime he's opened to $15 he's shown down AA.

Fold

**** that, i'd probably fold right along with wj.

definitely not 3b or jamming pre. i could see calling and possibly even folding to a cbet. your not really calling to set mine, but more to see how he continues otf. if he does have AK and whiffs, his mannerisms and sizing tells should give it away (i would assume).

but if he is realistically not even raising to 15 with AK, then back to my original plan and fold.

... needs more than 6-to-1 to setmine profitably.

i call, not to setmine, but also to get it in on non scary (A,K) boards.
folding is a little too weak imo, we cant just assume he only has big pairs and not AK/AQ also which are way more combinations.
it also might invite a donk with a hand like JT, 97, QJ, or whatever.

calling, but not to setmine.

Read is that he only does this with AA.

You'd call and get it in on a non-A or K board? Do we not think the vast majority of his range here, if not AA, still mainly includes KK, QQ and AKs? We're a massive dog to that range and we have rubbish implied odds. Fold pre is better than jamming which in turn is better than calling i think.

Fold and be glad that V's range isn't wide enough to stack you in these spots.

This is a ridiculously small sample size for us base this assumption on. There is so much more valuable information that we can use. What is our villain's current emotional state? Is he looking like he is getting ready to go? I think it is really weak-tight to fold this pre.

There may be some thin leveling going on this thread that I am not picking up on.

I love when in the LLSNL section of this site, people provide reads, and then others just dismiss them, which is what i'm assuming you're doing here?

If someone does something twice, with same hand and same results both times, when he does it again i'm not thinking he's balancing his $15 pre range, i'm thinking he has the same hand again.

But actually, i take what you say on board, we could completely disregard that and base it on whether he's ready to leave or not

This ^.

But I still think Shorty has [QQ+, AK] here....
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OP... if you flat with JJ, is it likely that someone else will come along. Someone with a proper stack?

If so, flat and see the flop.

If not, fold. Avoid playing pots with the short stacker unless you're willing to call off his stack at any time. JJ sucks vs. his apparent range.

Under no circumstances should you attempt to isolate the short stack with JJ. (In fact, don't isolate the short stack... generally.)

It is ridiculous that you think you can base reads on two hands. Do you really think V is only opening $15 when he has AA? And our sample size for this is based on two hands for however long the hero has been playing with the Villain.

I would much rather use cues like emotional state than a microscopic sample size.

Oh and I am never three-betting this hand.

You'd have to cooler someone unless they are a complete ****** for you to profit off them when the PFR shoves the flop.

We work with what we have. Your logic is a bit ******ed. In every single thread on here people give advice based on 'last time he showed down XX on XXXXX board, which means we can probably range him XYZ'. We play tendencies, there aren't enough hands in a session to get any other read on a villain based on shown down hands. We could also assume that he's buying in for 50 bigs and is playing a standard short stack game based on an ultra tight range.

We work with what we've picked up on, and if he's only raised to $15 with premiums then i'm much more inclined to go with that over some stupid read with no evidence like 'he's about to leave so this raise could be anything'. And flatting a $15 raise when villain has a $75 left is a bit lol. When the flop comes AQ2 what do we do?

Whatever. I am just offering my advice.

No you weren't. You called me ridiculous for basing a read on two shown-down hands. I said it was more solid than basing it on 'he's ready to leave' or 'he's a bit upset' when we've got ZERO evidence he does this when he's in these frames of mind/situations.

I have no intentions of getting into a dick-waving contest with you. You have your way of playing the hand and I have mine.

I think, in general terms, it is ridiculous to build a range for player based on two hands.

Hero flats. Button flats. Blinds Flat.

Pot is $75. Flop is, whatever.

Blinds check, UTG shoves for $75. Hero, getting 2:1, flats, pot is $225 to the button, getting 3:1...

I'm sorry... what were you saying?

Fair enough, i'll take your advice and start basing it off things like what drink he prefers, or perhaps what brand of shoe he's wearing.

Nikes== fish

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Say button has $300 effective
flop would be $45
Tight PFR shoves for 75. Hero flats getting ~1.5:1 looking nutted or stupid not isoing with a player behind him. Button decides to flat $75 into 195 getting 2.6:1 with less than a pot-size raise left (unlikely to happen).

Hero and button are generally behind V1's tight opening range based on bet size and previous hands. Hero then shoves into a protected pot with V1 weighted QQ+. Button, with all the knowledge that Hero must be nutted folds unless they too have a monster.

With this knowledge button is never overcalling with anything less than a monster on the flop. So when you call with JJ behind V1's opening range, you're hoping V2 flats behind you preflop even though they have the same knowledge about V1, then you hope you hit hard on the flop (set or OESFD or something) whilst V2 also hits hard.

Of course there will be situations where we don't want to continue.

But it is far from a forgone conclusion that UTG is shoving all flops. Many many times I see them bet $30 into a $45 pot with $75 stack.

I just shrug my shoulders, flat, and let the button flat behind me.

Turn comes, UTG shoves, and I flat, and button flats behind me.

River comes, I bet and button calls. I turn over my JJ, button mucks his whatever and I ended up maximizing my equity against UTG while picking up free chips from Button.

While I agree that UTG's range is pretty bad for JJ, its really only going to be against the more aggressive opponents behind us who are going to give you major issues.

I don't know where you get this from. Not true. Button is calling with all sorts of crap and draws.