1/2 100 Max Spread Limit

Hero has been aggressive and taking down a lot of pots without showdowns. Although when he did, he has won. One side of the table is frustrated with how much hero has been raising. (The looser players who just want to "play some cards")

Villain is a regular there. He seems like a tight-aggro player. His PFR raises are a bit on the small side though. ($6-8 when the standard raise is $10-12). Not too much of a read on him besides that.

Hero has 44, opens to $10 in MP and has 5 callers.

($56 pot) Flop is 356r

BB leads out for $18

I didn't think many people could hit this type of flop, his bet also seemed very weak. So I repop it to $54. (Is this the right play? I'm thinking this raise should have been bigger now since it's too easy with my current sizing for draws to call. Should I flat instead?)

Villain thinks for 5-10 secs and he calls. Everybody else folds.
(What's his possible range here? Now I'm thinking some pair with a straight draw, possibly sets or two pair, something like 77

78s, 65s, 64s, 54s, 33-88. (Am I missing anything here? 47s would have folded pre-flop)


The sets are less likely since it's likely he would have re-raised with those.

($182 pot) Turn is a 10

Action to hero? What's the line here?

Thinking out his combos here and what they do if I bet
16 combos of 78s (fold)
9 65s (I'm Crushed)
6 64s (33% fold)
6 54s (67% fold)
6 33 (I'm Crushed)
1 44 (100% Fold)
6 55 (I'm Crushed)
6 66 (I'm Crushed)
6 77 (I'm Crushed, possibly 1 combo folds)
6 88 (I'm Crushed, possibly 1 combo folds)


27 combos folds. 37 combos crush me. 42% of his range will fold to a bet.

Would an $80 b/f line been perfect?

Edit: Messed up the Combos the first time, hopefully it's right now. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong.

4 combos of 78s (fold)
3 65s (I'm Crushed)
2 64s (50% fold)
2 54s (100% fold)
3 33 (I'm Crushed)
1 44 (100% Fold)
3 55 (I'm Crushed)
3 66 (I'm Crushed)
6 77 (I'm Crushed, possibly 1 combo folds)
6 88 (I'm Crushed, possibly 1 combo folds)

10 combos fold, 20 combos call/shove. 33% of his range will fold to a bet.

Is a b/f $80 line still +EV here?

Stack sizes? May be too big to matter given it's spread limit but if vill only has like 120 left ott that DOES matter. Also, how is the pot 180 if flop was $50 and you + vill added $108 dollars (with maaaybe a caller in between of $20?)

Do you really think only 1 time of 6 an overpair will fold? I mean, 77 might be a little closer because of the gutshot but... I think fold % on this turn is much higher. Do you think there's any weird like A6 in his hand? What about 99? I really think a turn bet will get most of his 1p hands to fold, but you know him better than I do. Is 64s really in his range? I mean, I know people get pretty loose calling a raise from the BB after a bunch of callers but still. If that's in his range, we might as well add the truly nutted hands like 74s (2 combos) and 42s (2 combos). Have you lost FE with this villain? Does he think your raises are FOS?

Okay so I'm used to NL so I'm not quite sure how spread limit tends to play but going with what I know...

You raised as a bluff (a semi-bluff, but still. And yeah, I like the sizing.) Sometimes the flop raise needs followed up with a nice turn bet. You're telling the vill you have an overpair, right? You raised pre, then raised a board that couldn't have hit you [or what villain likely considers a board that couldn't have hit you. I dunno, you suggest your image isn't playing ATC]. I'd bet here. Sizing depends on pot size (if it's really 180, I'd go for max bet. If it's more like 150 you can maybe bet 80, but I still like the high side.) Unfortunately that probably commits you to calling since if he raises a full 100 on top, you have the odds to draw to your straight, but hey, your outs are probably all good.

I think you're right on all points. I should still clarify some things though.

He had about $175 left behind. Sorry I wasn't very clear on this, but the pot was $180 because he wasn't in the BB. It was a 2nd villain that bet from the BB. So the villain of interest is in MP and has position on us.

I agree now that he probably folds over pairs a lot more often given how strong our perceived ranged would have been if we bet.

I really whiffed it here by checking the turn. I believe my thought process at the time was that he probably had a monster hand that just wanted to induce more calls by flatting.

He bet $100 into me, I folded, and that's when I realized I should've planned my hand better (what am I doing if I get flatted, raised etc.).

Thanks for the excellent analysis kraken. Honestly I wasn't even thinking much about my perceived range that hand, I'm too used to playing level 1