Hero's second orbit, I've played 1 hand, I opened to 30 and x/f flop.

Villain is an unknown, probably around 30ish, looks grindy.

1.5k eff

Hero opens 30 utg with AKhh. V is only caller out of BB.

Flop AcKcQ

Checks to hero who cbets 50, V x/r to 150. Hero?

Hero calls. Turn AcKcQ9c. V bets 250. Hero?

Hero calls. River AcKcQ9c8. V checks. Hero?

Call flop, call turn. I probably just check river expecting villain to have JT a decent amount of the time.

Yeah check back river.

Why did you call the turn?

Because we have the top two pairs?

The important thing is to berate villain afterward for winning the minimum possible with his lucky hand. I hate this guy/gal already.

He asked a reasonable question IMO if he meant what was the river plan when calling turn. I think this would be ok to release if he fires river?

I got extremely close to folding turn since I should beat nothing in villains range. Then I thought about how people do dumb **** sometimes and I have top two pairs. I called turn with the intention of folding to a river bet considering that my range is pretty strong here and dude would have to be pretty maniacal to x/rbbb with worse.

Turn call is fine. I like a check back. Most of the time we lose here just hope to see kq or aq.

I like calling the turn to evaluate / possibly fold river. He's got plenty of two pairs in addition to JT. As played I like a checkback.

However I wonder if there is any merit to turning our hand into a bluff here? He is pretty capped when he checks river. If we bomb river do we fold out JT / sometimes get hero called by JT / sometimes get hero called by KQ? I think the answer is no because we don't have many suited clubs in our UTG range that are not blocked by the board and because worse two pairs should not be in his bluffcatching range. However we also don't really have any bluffs in this spot, V is capped, and it would put him in a really difficult spot which is always great imo. If we had AT/AJ I'd like turning it into a bluff on the river.

I hope turn callers are planning to enthusiastically stuff any Q, 9, or probably club river. I think you're certainly too far behind his range to call just for SD value and boat mining purposes.

edit: eh, I think you just need to jam all rivers, and assuming you do, I like the call. If he calls with JT/set, good on him.

I am not so sure about this. It almost certainly villain dependent in general, and this one is practically unknown.

Well, to hero he's the population, and the population is generally capped here. Sometimes we must act on statistically-informed reads. It is not especially common for a player to c/r a flush draw on AKQ unless it is also a straight. Of those times, it is not especially common for a flush to check the river.

trying to fold sets/JT is lighting money on fire

I'd bluff Q and club rivers but probably not 9s. Decent chance we can get villain of JT on this runout but I think we have too much SDV against something like KQ or random spazz.

I would not turn my hand into a bluff, esp readless, live players are not folding a hand that beats us

True that, and I have to play vs unknowns quite a bunch myself when I play online on Bovada, so completely agree with statistically-informed reads point.
What I was trying to ask (and should have been more implicit there) - is betting with most of the nutted hands in villain's spot, on this board, is higher EV than checking, especially given the fact that checking is perceived to cap his range. And also given the fact that some think of turning TP into bluff there, when checked to...

Hero played it well IMO, river is check behind, with a view to folding to third barrel on bricks. I like the idea of bluffing all clubs and pairing rivers.

This is pretty much exactly where my head was at when I called the flop xr. The only flushes that might make sense are qctc and qcjc... but even those hands are really ambitious xrs on that board. When he checks river, I think it's usualy going to be jt, kq, aq, and then we can throw in a few rare tt-aa, at, aj, and flushes.

If anyone still thinks that we should be folding sooner or pumping pot bigger at some point, skip the next sentence and spoiler until after you respond.

It looks like a majority if not all of yous wizards would do the same thing I did so here are results.



Thanks for the responses.

ffs this.

Surprised no one mentioned raising flop which does have merit. I flat most of the time for all of the obvious reasons but a click wouldnt be bad.