Playing 1/2 full ring. I'm about 200 bb deep. 4 smooth callers from early/mid position, the table has been very limpy and lots of small multi-way pots. Get dealt 9 9 on the button. I raise to 22 which is in line with my usual sizing from the button. SB calls, and 1 of the early position limpers calls.

Pot is approx 70$
Flop comes 7-8-10 rainbow. The villain bets out for 30, I call, small blind folds.
Turn comes 9.
Pot is $130
The villain ships it all in for $200 more, covering me with about 150$ behind.

The villain was older 50's white male.
Pre-flop
The villain had been limp/calling many suited connectors and unsuited broadways . I'd also seen him take the same line pre-flop with Aces once.
Post-flop, the villain was very fit or fold. And he was betting his draws heavy in heads up/3 handed spots. He was also being trappy with his sets and flushes.


I tanked for a long time, and made the decision to fold.
He turned over 7-8 disappointed, and said he'd put me on an over pair.
After further consideration, I felt there not make much sense for him to ever bet a 6 or a J this way. I considered that even if he had the straight, the river could pair for the full boat, But I still found a fold.
I feel like I made a terrible fold. But I find myself second guessing If it was correct vs his range.

Should I have raise/got it in on the flop?
Was my lay down on the turn too nitty?

Don't fold sets in live low stakes.

Ok he leads flop.... so what can he have either he flopped the nuts/ sets / tp / 2 pairs
He is definitely not leading with a gut shut straight draw
Also we block 9s so it's very unlikely he has the nuts

So he most likely don't have the nuts and not a straight in the turn based on his flop lead

Hence we are ahead here most of the time


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While I dont necessarily agree with the idea that villain couldnt lead flop with some J× combos we have the ability to get there against the nuts. Even if you are behind which is certainly not always the case in this spot you're getting roughly 2:1 to call. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't we about 25% for the board to pair otr here? Given how often we might be good and the possibility that we can get there by the river when we aren't I think this is a spot where we have to call.

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I originally liked a fold just thinking about how little a typical 1/2 player bluffs here but on second thought and after reading your post I actually agree with you. This is a spot where I would probably fold in real time and then hate my decision after looking back at it later. But yea, I agree, call.

Also, I think a lot of 1/2 players overvalue their hands in these type of spots. Just another thing to consider which makes it more of a call imo.

This is pretty close to a snap call, villains line with jj would be quite strange, jt is the most credible hand for his line

Also if he has the straight there is no rush to shove either

no worries.

You are trying to make a decision against a rec player who is showing wild aggression when he really has no idea where he is at.

huge shoves like that are usually polarized to nuts/bluffs. So for his hand to be so mediocore in this spot makes deep analysis kind of fruitless.

Meh just call. If he has a J, you can still suck out. If he doesn't have a J, he's drawing dead