Quote:
Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer
Vs a solid UTG opening range of ~ 10%, TT would almost always be a flat. The only thing that we have going for a 3b is that his UTG range could be wider than optimal. It's fine to be "capped" too, because if we extend that line of thought, we should never overcall and always 3b, and we know we're not going to be using a 3b/fold strat in lls. Also, what sort of nut advantage does V have on this board? We certainly have as many sets as V, we have as many two pairs as V, we might have more straights than V because we should have more 76s than him and just as much, if not more QJ b/c as a BTN overcaller we might have some offsuit combos while he should only have the suited ones. Also, while V has AXhh combos in the form of AThh+ and some A5 maybe A4hh combos, we can have random AXhh as well. Certainly A2-A5 that we chose not to 3b, AT&AJ, maybe some AQhh that we chose to flat once in a while and we can have the A6-7hh combos... maybe not all, but enough to balance out V's. We can also have some random suited-gappers or maybe even connectors with hh, though the board blocks us and V from having too many of those, but like 65hh, 75hh, 54hh etc...
I agree with you and Amanaplan that we normally want to be flatting TT here. I was just responding to OP's description of V as opening a little wider than a TAG. But I don't think it's the fulcrum issue of the hand at all.
I agree that we have the range advantage but he still has the nut advantage with AhKh/Qh, even though it's only 2 combos. I would argue that V has as many QhJh and 7h6h as H does (as V is described by OP as opening wider than a true TAG). We have an equal number of TT/99/88. Arguably we also have as many Ahx as does V. So I still think V has a minor nutted advantage and I agree with you we have more QJ than he does. Overall, it's a close range/nut battle.
That said, how do we use our positional advantage? (Given that I think we can all agree the nutted/range issues are very close.)
As I said in my post, I think the combinatorics dictate raise. Amanaplan misunderstood me perhaps. While V's jam over our raise would put us in a bad spot, raising I think is still preferable.
You just made a very good case for a flat based on your range analysis. I'm concerned that half the deck is bad for our range on the turn and I want to raise for equity denial now. Are you flatting or raising this flop?
Thanks as always for your help!