This is awesome, thank you very much for sharing this. Also, defending 17.1% is very accurate.

I agree with Java here. Right play, wrong Villain.
AP: check turn.

Wait why are we now checking turn to a guy who can be station? Aren't we not only way ahead of his range but also way ahead of his calling range? This is not intended to be snooty but I'm just really curious about the spot because I think I would bet half pot.

Hey Joey: I think we don’t want to get raised off our equity against a still-uncapped range here. I’d rather x turn and get to the river where we can probably lead/jam all bricks which favor our range. V almost has to have an overpair to call our flop x r. I’m really hoping he has 88/99 that will x behind and pay us off on most rivers. He has one TT that will bury us and a bunch of overpairs that might blast off in frustration with no FD out.

If we get raised here on the turn we are almost certainly drawing to four outs. We can definitely get called by worse.

That was my thought as well. His line does not look at all like over pairs which would almost certainly raise more preflop and bet more on the flop. Rarely at these steaks in against described villain should we be worried about getting blown off our Hand by a bluff. It seems like there's more value to be had in getting thin value then a pot control kind of line.

late to the party

but I call pre only because of desc of V

when we make a hand a sticky V will pay us off
if we miss we can c/f or c/c based on bet size(another+ for us is V's sizing tells)

I'm using my image and leading the turn 60% pot

Agreed. So what are we doing ott then? We're not b/f, right?

Setting aside his spaz Ax, V has 6 combos 88/99 that can call with gutters and SDV against our air. He has one TT that crushed us and 16 more AA-JJ that have us drawing thin.

DooDoo's solver stuff was fantastic. But I feel like V's overcall otf against H's xr line already narrowed V's range considerably. I don't think I need to bet again to narrow his range further.

I'm xc and hoping for a brick that hits our range so I can lead the river and push this guy off his overpair. If we bloat the pot ott we're going to offer him better odds if we jam river. If we x and call a reasonable bet, he'd get poor odds to call our river jam and even poorer odds to call our river jam if he checks behind.

Me too. But if I did play, I would most likely raise.

As long as V's propensity is to call down with JJ+ on this board (not raising) and maybe even continuing to piece off with some 88/99/AK/AQ type hands, then I think leading the turn is fine. I would argue we have 6-9 outs if behind now (any Ten, 8, and all the 9's) and blockers vs hands that we are ahead of (88 and 99).

And shoot, if we can get V to lay down JJ/QQ even a small % of the time, then a bet is even more worth it.

I just don't understand why we are assigning much weight at all to overpairs. In LLNL, these small opening sizes ($8) and small flop bet ($9) are so rarely overpairs, and to add to that OP confirms that this villain in particular has a sizing tell in that smaller raises pre are NOT JJ - AA.

If we remove overpairs from his range and trust OP's read that V can be sticky, then b/f seems great as we get value from his 33/44/55/88/99/A6/A7/78/ and can fold to a raise which is likely the sets, 76,89 to which we have little chance to improve. There is no information in OP that V is aggressive and will semi-bluff with hands we beat, especially when we've shown strength.

I hear you, brother. I guess I'm pondering the following: with what part of his weaker range which you've assigned him would V be capable of flatting our flop check-raise here?

With the stickiness/stationess that OP describes, a lot more of 33/44/55/88/99/A6/A7/78/ (maybe even 2 overs!) than would ever be prudent, especially given he views hero as aggressive

Fold pre, fold flop, check turn, check river, at best.

Then remember that the casino is going to take $5-6 out of the pot in rake/jackpot. So OTF, the pot is not $17, its something like $15 or less (depending on how the rake is collected).

So V bets $9 into $15 and we have a gutter and think that V doesn't have a hand he's going to back up unless he hits hard. And you want to call?

Great plan for burning $$$

According to OP, and we have to trust this read because it's all we have, V never has JJ-AA here.

I wouldn't be here, but now that I am, I would bet around half pot and fold to a raise.

Hero continues for $50(?) and villain tanks for a solid minute before calling.

River ($177): 3:spade. Hero?

Call pre.

Flop is fine to either call or raise. Folding flop is lol.

Betting turn makes no sense. Why are you betting?

We lose to three combos of 66, three combos of 77, one combo of TT; beat three combos of 88, and six combos of 99, and villain is a station. This should be his range to a T.

Given your view of villain and your understanding of how he views you I think this is a mandatory trip to thin value town. Let's bet fold one third of the pot

I think the turn is a good spot to overbet. We want to overbet in positions where we have a higher concentration of nut/strong hands.

As played - the 3 is much better for us. All in.

Dafuq is this button clicking? You're overbet bluffing with top pair now?

Agree that we jam AP.

But I'm not sure about the turn overbet. I'd be grateful if you could you explain this more. I'm having trouble finding enough of our nutted or even strong combos outside 98s (4) and 77 (2) , 66 (2) in the midst of all the other combos, gutters and 54s we can have here. We don't have enough that want to overbet, but I could be missing the forest for the trees. Thanks!

You realize solvers mostly bluff with pairs right?

If you look at the solver - we have an equity advantage now against Villain OTT. The T gives us 51.04% Equity with our range vs Villain's range.

The fact that we have an equity advantage while being OOP is pretty rare. Due to this fact - we should exploit our range advantage and bet with bigger sizing.

You'll see this happen often with IP players when an Ace comes OTT. For example we raise BTNvsBB - flop comes T32r - we cbet with a hand like KQo. The turn is an Ace. This would be another overbet spot because we have all the strong Ax/TT/ATs etc.

We use bigger sizing when we have a range/equity advantage. When the situation is really exaggerated we use overbets.

Thanks DooDoo. I really appreciate your insights.

One more question if I may: Didn't V's overcall of H's checkraise narrow his range versus the initial Solver range inputs?