It can be argued that checking T8o here is spew.

Yeah the solver is split into game trees. So when the Villain calls Hero's check-raise it goes into another (read: stronger) game tree.

That is taken into account when analyzing the turn though. We still have 51.04% equity vs his flop continuing range on a T turn.

The reason for this is because Hero has way more 22/66/77/98s and Villain has way more JJ/QQ/KK/AA (I realize OP didn't put JJ-AA in Villain's range but I think it is impossible to know this for certain - and my view is from a solver view, not an exploitative one).

Thanks for your patience. So I guess Joey and all the turn bettors are correct especially if we’re willing to put some credence in H’s read of V’s sizing tells etc.

This has been a great thread and I’m grateful to everyone for a great conversation. Now I’m curious to know what happened!

Sure but what are you trying to bluff this sticky rec player off of that top pair doesn't already beat?

According to OP...

Which really just leaves 66-TT outside of the guy betcalling flop with JT and AT which is negligible given dead Tens.

sixsevenoff, next time you do a PAHWM, please put all street actions, stacks, pots, etc., in each continuing post so we don't have to go back to figure out stacks, suits, etc. Thanks.

As played, I bet $75 targeting his hero calls with AX or similar. I'm not sure what shoving accomplishes? Sticky to $75 is one thing; sticky to a shove is another. He might not believe it, though, especially given H's image. I still like a smaller bet. It comes down to bet/call or bet/fold, but he doesn't seem the type to raise w/ a hand that can't beat a T.

Of course it is impossible to know for certain-- poker is a game of incomplete information after all. But live experience in general and OP's knowledge of this villain in particular tell us to drastically underweight the 24 combinations of JJ - AA.

I'm all about using technologically to aid us in diagnosing hands, but as with most modeling endeavors, garbage in = garbage out. It is not a trivial decision whether or not to include 24 combos of JJ - AA or something like 4-5 combos, as this will dramatically impact what we decide the +EV play will be.

If we trust OP's read on V's stickiness and view of OP as aggressive, I don't think we can rule out 22 - 55 either.

Indeed. But actually we accomplished both objectives via this thread. We analyzed the GTO line and discussed the exploitative line too. So the specific case with this V was considered as a subset/sub-case of the overall scenario.

I find this to be the superior approach because it allows us to apply our knowledge to a "better class" of Villain in case we encounter a similar situation against a tougher, more balanced player.

Thanks again for your help!

If we're giving V the one combo of TT, we ought to give them the two of JTs and either two or eight combos of AT (depending suited or suited+unsuited) as well.

I think my main issue with the size-tell on V is that it's unclear to me at this point if V can have a hand like A7 or JJ, which are each one pip off from the range given.

If V's range on the river is boiled down to 88, 99, JT, AT (he'd probably have bombed the sets in at some point; the size-tell excludes overpairs), then there's 9 combos we beat and either four or ten we don't, so I'd probably bet-fold.

I tend to find these super sticky Vs with the reliable size tells show up with A7/A6/55 here sometimes too, although that's balanced with them having sandbagged a set the whole way.

H bets $100 into $177 (I believe you have about $215 to start the river).

This one is tough, especially given V's tank call OTT. An awful long time to think there with any hand that we lose to. I don't understand what a shove accomplishes either as it is extremely polarized and is basically turning our hand into a bluff. And given that Hero has said that V does not have a ton of overpairs in his range by the river, then a shove seems like a massive overplay/spew (V folds only hands that we beat and calls with his few nutted hands).

I would b/f about half pot here ($80-$90), targeting 99/88/A7 hands.

Bluff shove > check > value bet

Why is that?

Yes would be nice to understand range you put V on and how this fits.

Hero bets $90, villain calls, and mhig

Nice!

I'm doing a lot more value betting, and it's paying off.

Nice hand, well played. Given your reads, I really don't understand the folks that thought a bet would be a bluff. We have top pair against a station who thinks we are overly aggressive. Again I point to the bias on this forum where people assume hands posted went wrong and thus advise lines that attempt to "avoid the pending horror"

WP sir

this is just button clicking imho

Thanks...I'll make sure to format future PAHWM properly.