V1 ($1200): 30ish Asian. First time I've played with him, but his reputation preceeds him. Known throughout casino as a crazy LAG (but not totally incompetent) who can show up with ATC. I've also heard once in a while he will strangely switch gears and play a more "regular" style, and for the 45 minutes we've been playing together (he just sat down, bought in to match biggest stack at table) he hasn't seemed to get out of line and is probably "only" playing 25% - 35% of hands.

V2 ($525): MAWG, really fishy and makes strange plays liking betting middle pair on the river into 2 opponent. I've seen him show up on the river tonight with 94s in a raised pot pre-flop. Also seen him bluff a decent amount. And not sure it matters but whenever he is facing a bet post-flop he has this really confused and bewildered look.

Hero ($450): 30ish white guy, been playing TAGish but V1 probably doesn't know much about me and not sure V2 is paying too much attention.

OTTH... V1 limps UTG, V2 limps in MP, another limper, Hero makes it $17 in SB w/ QQ. Only V1 and V2 call.

Flop ($50): J52 Hero bets $35. V1 calls, V2 calls.

Turn ($155): J52 9 Hero bets $100. V1 calls, V2 calls.

River ($455): J52 9 7 Hero???

Ck/call most bets from V1.
Hard to say from V2, probably depends on sizing and timing but often folding.

it´s not super deep...
with only 1/2 potsize bet left otr and a pretty great runout, I´m going for three streets here, esp against these player profiles. ship it in.

edit: miscounted stacksizes. still 300 into 450 is reasonable enough.

bet $298

From SB i would make it 20 pre, especially this deep and with these described villians.

On the river I would bet 100 to get values from Jx type hands. If we get raised we can comfortably fold losing to mostly to 810 which might have all 16 combos from V2, 8c6c, 2 combos of J7s. I wouldn’t be too suprised if v2 had 2c7c from time to time given he had 94s in a raised pot, he might over limp this pre and call a raise after utg calls. Flush draws might jam river if we check but most likely wont jam if we bet 100 as we would be getting 1:5 odds on a call and looks like we can’t fold.

I have a hard time seeing a lot of value hands better than ours here, mainly just rivered straights with T8cc or 86cc, or maybe J9/J7, of which J9 and T8cc might raise turn sometimes. We certainly can be beat, but I don't think this is a spot where I'm overly concerned about it. The question is do enough bluffs bet here, and if I bet what am I hoping will call me. Assuming 1p jacks will call some portion of the time, what sizing do we go for? Jamming seems reasonable on the 1 hand, but our range is really capped at JJJ or 999 of which there are only 6 combo's, and only 4 if either villain holds a J here, so our hand really does look like an overpair or a missed flush draw. Considering our hero doesn't have Qc making club draws slightly more likely, and either player may be a bit spazzy I'd probably c/c the river, although I don't think betting can be bad here.

From a GTO perspective to balance our bets/check/bluffs maybe c/c our non club overpairs, shove the ones with a club, and bluff some portion of our club draws?

Jam. Don’t count on somebody bluffing the river. Just focus on stacking AJ.

Yea its a pretty standard jam its just mighty tempting to check vs button clickers in these spots though.

V1 doesn't sound like he limps AJ or maybe even KJ or JT suited.

Don't know from info provided if V2 does.

Games differ a lot, but betting about 300 here represents more than QQ in my pool. Especially multi way.

I wouldn't entirely count on a bluff, but I would bet smaller. Maybe check/read as sometimes you will catch a bluff, occasionally someone will spew with a jack and other times it will become obvious you are beat.

grunch.

given remaining stack size, I think I just ship and hope Jx feels committed. I feel like checking is just going to get a check through from a missed flush draw and a Jx. If we were heads up with V1, I would say check river (or turn), to give him some rope, but I think checking to induce a bluff is probably optimistic 3-ways.

I think all sets raise on the turn
I don't think 77 calls down to catch a set on the river.
Only 8c6c & 9c7c beats you, unless J9 called down?!
Another bet of $100 on the river is a sign of weakness, opening doors.
You've already made $300 with ONE pair, if you have the best hand.
A $200 bet will probably get called by AJ [hoping you show up with KJ or same hand] and it's in line with our bet size increases on previous streets.
I think chances of getting called by V with AJ betting $200 is much better than jamming & getting called.

Is a pair of jacks going to call? More of the time, you’ll only be called/raised by better. Check / call


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I can see J9 in V1's range UTG, based on the reputation he has, and he called on the flop with TP, not respecting your range, and got lucky OTT, now calling OTT to let you hang yourself. At the same time, he could have Jx and still isn't respecting your range. I'm not the best at calculating equity, but I know with the way he's played the hand, more of his hands point to TP, so I can see the argument for betting OTR.

Not to sure about V2, but considering he's fishy, I think busted river FD. Nothing about his play OTF and OTT makes sense except a draw.

Thanks for the replies and I think most of the analysis is spot on...

Some value is a massive understatement. The river value bet is the most important bet there is. Stacking AJ doubles your profit on the hand.

JT from V2? Ya, that's supremely fishy. V1 definitely played that hand passive. This hand really gives me an idea on how fishy live 1/2 is, and how it can be exploited. I'm working my way back to playing live, after a long hiatus, and this hand was illuminating.

Thanks for sharing.

Grunch:

Haven't seen results

I barrel shove river expecting value from AJ/KJ. We have 300 and pot is 450. I don't see what beats us that doesn't raise flop or turn 3-way.

$20 pre; bet/bet/shove.

Oh, and you aren't that deep.

Both true statements. I think I wanted to convince myself both that it was very deep to justify the pot control move on the river and also that was not that bad of an error, but in terms of profit, missing just one of these bets every 8 hour session is devastating to your profit rate.

I’ve played a lot of live poker over the last 3 years - something around 4200 hours. Opportunities like this come around every 40-50 hours or so. Having an overpair to the board that isn’t AA is hands down one of our most profitable scenarios (think KK vs AQ/AJ on Qxx or Jxx or QQ vs. AJ on Jxx).

Having the overpair with no blockers to TPTK is such a ridiculous value spot that it makes me sad to see a missed river bet here knowing how few and far these opportunities arrive once you start arriving at the “long term” in poker.