Hero[$215]: Is a mid 30s white guy. Has has been sitting for about an hour or so. Hero hasn't limped any hands and has only entered pots for raises. Currently, Hero is currently viewed as quite aggressive as last hand he 3!'d KQo from the BB against a Button raise and then fired two barrels. Hero had to lay his hand down and is waiting for the runner to bring him more chips to top up.

Villain [covers]: MAWG that hero has 8-10 hours of experience on. Not a crusher in the room, but likely a winning player. Limp/Calls too much imo, but is a solid post flop player who i've seen semi-bluff, block bet and bet for thin value. Doesn't get tricky PF with his large pocket pairs. V just got back from missing the blinds and posts $3 from the CO.


Hero has JJ and raises to $15 UTG, folds to V in cutoff who jokes "great, now i have to look" shrugs and calls, BB calls.

Pot[$47]
Flop: 443
Hero leads for $30, V asks how much I bet and then raises to $75, BB folds

Pot[$197]
Board: 4435
Hero checks, V ships, Hero calls

This seems like a pretty trivial call, but I'm curious if anyone finds a fold here. If V can do this with a FD or Overpair, it seems standard, not to mention just having air which he has a non-zero % of the time.

V shouldn’t have many 4’s in his range when he calls your UTG PFR in the CO. Also, if he had QQ-AA he most likely would have 3b PF. Therefore, given stack sizes and the fact that we are OOP, I am shoving the flop. The majority of the time V will have a flush draw or a hand like 65s.

If I were able to read anything into both the pre "shrug" and post "how much", I could find a fold. Smells of an over pair. Otherwise, call with >40% of stack invested and a 5-high drawy board.

I don't mind calling off on the turn since you committed yourself after calling the flop raise. Take your time on each decision though because you have information on this guy. If you believe that he limp calls too much, then he will probably call with a hand like 45 suited and maybe A4. I think there are a lot of combinations in his range that are ahead of you. Also, he had 3 in before looking at his cards, so another reason he might call. You're representing a strong hand, and since you say he is a good player, then I doubt his raise on the flop is a bluff. If he thinks you have Aces, then a semi bluff on the flop is super risky. Plus if he thinks you have a strong hand and he hit a 4, then maybe he doesn't want you to get there. I would want to set up for a turn shove if I had a 4, wouldn't want to see to many cards with board like this. I wouldn't want AK of hearts to stick around or an over pair to hit a boat.

At nearly 3:1 I think I probably call but the flop is where you got committed to the hand. A2o looks like it got there.

Totally agree with this. I called on the assumption that V is going to shove 100% of turns but 3! shoving on the flop will only get me called by sets and 2 pair. Do we think folding this flop given reads is an optimal line? It seems really weak/tight to me.

Well, if you think villain is shoving most turns, then you should decide whether you want to put it all in on the flop, which you did. IMO folding 1 hand does not necessarily mean that you are weak/tight. Even if it does so what? Just means that he might bluff more against you. I feel like you got married to your hand on the flop. As mentioned before, you're line indicates a strong hand and he was not afraid to raise on the flop. I think he folds this flop a high % of the time if he misses.

Villain is BB which increases the chances he'd have a 4 in his hand. 3 betting with KQ looks very maniacy in my game (it may be a great move) and there are a lot more guys who would defend light against someone like you so A4 suited is certainly a good possibility given the action but 64 or 54 could be the case. I would try to control pot size rather than shove. QQ is a possible holding too

V is in the CO and not the BB. Also, it’s going to be pretty hard to pot control when you are OOP and there’s only a 2/3 PSB left on the turn.

Flop is 443, so he would have needed to flop quads or a FH. If so, nh. I like 3b AI if u can underweight QQ+.

Just out of curiosity, when V says “great, now I have to look” and then shrugs and calls does he do this before or after he looks at his cards? To me, it seemed that he did this before he looked at his cards.

Hero states in his description that V doesn’t get tricky PF with his big pocket pairs. Somehow, I have a feeling this was specifically mentioned because V probably showed up with QQ-AA, lol.

Haha, exactly, which is why I mentioned the importance of live reads in my first post.

V did not have a big pair. I only mentioned this for ranging purposes. As to your other question, V looked at his cards then shrugged.