1/2 overbet backdoored flush?
01-26-2016
, 10:51 PM
You're telling me that that villain is gonna call a pot size bet on a scary river that fills a million draws close enough to 100% of the time that you can round it to 100% to simplify the point? In my OP I also asked guys here whether they would bluff a blank river (3
) because I thought that there is enough fold equity for it to be +EV. The calling frequency for this Q
river is gonna be way lower.
Ragequit, like I said this is something new I'm trying. And yes I would do this with something further from the nuts as long as villain is someone who can call with enough combos of worse to make it more +EV than betting a standard size. Not in this hand specifically since if I had somehow gotten to this river with say 54 there are way too many combos of higher flushes like my actual hand that beat me. But the 54 hand in the COTM you linked would be a great example of overbetting with like the 10th nuts.
As for the ego thing, it's just a vibe I was getting from him. Some guys fold, tap the table and say "nice hand". Other guys (like this guy) stare at you for 10 seconds with an annoyed look on their face, say "one time" and then fold.
) because I thought that there is enough fold equity for it to be +EV. The calling frequency for this Q river is gonna be way lower.Ragequit, like I said this is something new I'm trying. And yes I would do this with something further from the nuts as long as villain is someone who can call with enough combos of worse to make it more +EV than betting a standard size. Not in this hand specifically since if I had somehow gotten to this river with say 5
4 there are way too many combos of higher flushes like my actual hand that beat me. But the 54 hand in the COTM you linked would be a great example of overbetting with like the 10th nuts.As for the ego thing, it's just a vibe I was getting from him. Some guys fold, tap the table and say "nice hand". Other guys (like this guy) stare at you for 10 seconds with an annoyed look on their face, say "one time" and then fold.
01-27-2016
, 04:52 PM
I'm genuinely trying to help, so I'll briefly bring iit all together at the bottom...
No, just simplifying an example to find most exploitative value in a vacuum sizing.
Youll still need some calling/folding frequency from V to get a semi-reliable solution from the full equation.
If you ran your range going Ck-c, Ck-r, shove line against bet, bet, bet, you would find some ugly results particularly against the higher calling frequencies of a fish. If you step back and compare the outcomes intuitively without even building the tree, you should start to see the problems with the your line, especially with one of the weaker hands in your flop continuing range.
Quick example is the problem on the turn-river AP. You turn equity, it goes Ck-r-c, yet V remains super wide.
River 3h. When you bet there are zero calls from worse, some folds from Ax, and rare folds from 2p. You're compelled to bluff riv given this though you have SD against all his missed draws. He turn bet-c makes his riv calling frequency higher with a bluff catch type hand that he perceives as a hero call way too often.
River Qs. Now there are some calls from worse, but far more folds from Ax and 2p. All of the Ax which you needed to fold on a dry river, you now need to have call you on a wet river for essentially the same proposed bet size.
Keep in mind, this is one of the weaker hands you would bet on the flop, so when you ck it, you lose initiative, visibility, and a fair amount of value and immediately are stuck making less EV decisions OOP on turns and rivers with this hand and your entire range that ck-c
Quote:
In my OP I also asked guys here whether they would bluff a blank river (3) because I thought that there is enough fold equity for it to be +EV.
) because I thought that there is enough fold equity for it to be +EV.
Quote:
Ragequit, like I said this is something new I'm trying.
Quick example is the problem on the turn-river AP. You turn equity, it goes Ck-r-c, yet V remains super wide.
River 3h. When you bet there are zero calls from worse, some folds from Ax, and rare folds from 2p. You're compelled to bluff riv given this though you have SD against all his missed draws. He turn bet-c makes his riv calling frequency higher with a bluff catch type hand that he perceives as a hero call way too often.
River Qs. Now there are some calls from worse, but far more folds from Ax and 2p. All of the Ax which you needed to fold on a dry river, you now need to have call you on a wet river for essentially the same proposed bet size.
Keep in mind, this is one of the weaker hands you would bet on the flop, so when you ck it, you lose initiative, visibility, and a fair amount of value and immediately are stuck making less EV decisions OOP on turns and rivers with this hand and your entire range that ck-c