V just sat down a couple hands ago, bought in full, isn't saying much and hasn't played any hands. Young guy, looks somewhat competent. Hand is 100BB effective.

Hero is in EP with QQ. V opens in EP to $10, Hero raises to $30, folds to V, calls.

Flop ($60): 43J

V Checks, Hero bets $30, V raises to $65.

Hero? Pot is now $155, $105 effective behind.

With no read I fold and pretty easily. AA/KK/JJ all beat you and those are very very likely hands to raise in EP and call a 3 bet.

Now he makes a tiny check raise that most people wont fold to. Hes setting up a turn shove. He could have AcKc which you are basically even money with but would obviously want to get all in with at this point, but I would expect a check raise all in from that hand, not a tiny check raise.

You beat AJ or some spazz hand. I fold.

SPR is less than 3 and you have an overpair. Never folding. V has a range something like AcKc,AJs, half of AJo combos, JJ+ (with AA discounted as it usually 4-bets), and maybe a few other two-club two-Broadway hands (JcQc, etc.). While you're a bit behind his range, with the dead money in the pot it is still correct to go with it. I shove now, as another club will sometimes kill your hand or your action.

Agree with the above. Villain can easily just have top pair or combo draw here. I'd also discount aa and KK as he just called your 3 bet pre. Shove and hold against his AJ.

I would discount AA/KK from his range since he flatted pre. I wouldn't assume without reads your typical live 1/2 player is bluffing with a FD here.

Small bet size makes me think he's trying to "see where he's at" with a jack. Also possible he's got JJ and is raising small to keep you in the pot, but this is less likely since most live players with the FD out there would want to end the hand rather than see a scary turn.

So in the most likely scenario that he's just seeing where he's at with a jack, reraising would turn your hand into a bluff and get him to fold - he'd only be continuing in the rare cases he played JJ/AA/KK weird. So I don't raise here.

I flat and take a turn in position with a half PSB behind. If the turn bricks and he shoves I'm calling - I read that as a strong jack just wanting to get the money in now that the turn was safe. If he checks on a brick I shove to get value from a J.

If an A or K turns and he shoves I probably fold - AJ/KJ is very credibly in his range here. If he checks on an A or K I check back - don't think you're getting thin value out of a J on that turn.

If a club turns here and he shoves I call - the only credible FD in his range at this point is AJc so I just wouldn't believe him. If he has overs+FD your average live player is C/Cing that flop since they just want to spike the turn. If a club comes and he checks I check back planning to shove the river if he checks again for thin value.

I still see "raising to see where I'm at" occasionally, but 1) it is usually older players and 2) it is not "check-raising to see where I'm at." I'm pretty sure almost everything in his range is going with it at this point. I don't think we lose many jacks at all by shoving now.

Reading these posts just reinforces why I normally just call a 3 bet with AA/KK.

It's not a bad play in live poker, assuming normal stack depth, but it's also not a common one. Not saying AA isn't in V's range, just that it's discounted.

I forgot to include that I did not have the Q

Are enough people really flatting a 3 bet pre with AJ/KJ to have those in his range? I would think those are pretty easy auto folds to 3bets in live fr. Im not even opening KJ in EP let alone calling 3 bets with it oop.

I was figuring his range to be more like

AK, AQ, 33-44, JJ, maybe 1 combo each of KK-AA. Lots of sets, flipping vs. his draws where we're doing ok because of dead money

AJs is usually calling a 3-bet from most Vs (which is stupid, but common), and AJo sometimes is. 33 and 44 are rarely in an open-raiser's range in the first place. They are usually limped. If they are raised, that's a sign of a more "2+2-style" V, who is likely to fold to the three bet since he's not getting set-mining odds. Between the two factors, there is very little 33/44 in V's range, imo.

Its tough since we don't have any reads, but I think your typical bad live player isn't folding AJ/KJ to a 3 bet. I also don't think most live players are opening 44/33 from EP - more likely limping. I really don't think average passive live player is C/R'ing FDs here but once again tough with no read.

Agreed 100%. Based on his tiny check raise though, I think you should be un-discounting AA/KK/JJ back into his range. I think the avg person (no reads) who calls a 3 bet with AJ will either check/call the flop or maybe check raise all in. His flop action makes me personally discount AJ.

I say this over and over again. Reads are everything and IMO more important that the detailed math of NL poker. Of course you need to know the basic math, but a hand like this is SO read based. People who tell me they can play good solid poker while looking at their phones or tablet all day are nuts.

I see even young and otherwise competent players min-x/r TPGK small to find out where they are at. I also see a lot of slow played KK+. I don't see many x/r with draws, they are mostly played passively except by a select few aggro players who are very obvious by their over the top aggression and loose play.

I have to admit I absolutely hate these spots. I'm mostly concerned V has JJ, it makes perfect sense but it's so few combos. I do discount KK+ a bit but I'm sure there are a few combos out there.

If I had just opened QQ+ and got raised on a drawy flop I think I'd usually give it up without a strong read.

In a 3bet pot I'm going to go with it much more frequently bease of the dead money. I think I'd call the flop bet and call all turns. I reckon this allows V to keep going with all JX and I just don't think he has many FDs. If he shows me KK/AA then I'm going to think folding is a better option next time.

Nevertheless, I don't really hate folding and I'm quite happy with shoving flop.

Folding on such a wet flop is terrible. The pot is $60 going to the flop and we have $135 behind. With this SPR, it's a trivial shove.

Villain could easily have flush draw or Jack here. This a fist pump jam and no need to really even think about other options here.

Jam it in

You gotta ask yourself if over pair is strong enough hand to go for stack for 100bb, and your over pair isn't the highest pair at all


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Lol so you don't know. You said you would prob call and also shove and don't hate folding.

I think it's a tough spot because with no read I'm not ready to suggest that he is ~min-raising TPGK on the flop. I think a bad/rec player (which is what we are suggesting he is by even having those hands) is just flatting the flop a lot of the time.

It makes sense to me that he would want to protect a set or even AA/KK on this board but I just don't see a line where he flatted the 3-bet pre and now wants to get it in with TPGK. Check-min raising light just isn't a line I see from bad players, maybe just where I play.

I'm saying I'm shoving.

Or calling.

Maybe folding

Seriously, I'd have to be sat across the table looking at the guy to be sure what I'd do but vs an unknown in my game I'd call him down. I'll call flop and call any and all turns.

Results?

Probably jammed it in and got shown the nuts (JJ, KK-AA). Probably why he posted the hand, to see if he should get away from it. He shouldn't, especially without the Qc in an SPR of 2.7ish.

I'm seriously trying to think of the last thread I agreed with the reads or line Mike suggested.

I win a **** ton of money, so if you do also, then there's obviously more than one way to win at poker.