Sat a 3 hour 1/2 session for the first time in a while and ran into this spot where I wasn't sure how to maximize.
Around $250 effective stacks, I cover by a lot.
4 limpers and Hero looks down at J
2
in the BB. Check.
Flop: ($9 after rake) J
J
2
I'm first and check, action checks around.
Turn: ($9) J
J
2
A
Hero checks, checks to V who is MAWG relatively new to the table (45 mins?) but has been playing tighter than most pre (not 2+2 tight, but tighter than the table average), a little sticky post when he hits and not very aggressive. I wouldn't say he's a station, he has been aggressive in some spots but not enough sample to know if he's really aggressive or just made a couple big hands. So, semi-Tight, semi-Aggressive, semi-sticky with a piece but small sample post. Anyway V makes it $10, and it folds back around to Hero who is hoping V has the Ace or the flush and puts in a raise to $25. Folds back to V who confidently tosses in three green chips to 3 bet to $75. I now have him on only a flush or a medium / strong Jack (JT, QJ, KJ...).
After the 3! to $75 I feel like whatever I do seems super strong and he only has about $175 left. If I flat, I'm OOP and feel checking OTR is missing value because his flush or Jx is VERY frequently checking behind. MAYBE the nut flush or a KJ might stab but even that could be optimistic as he would be betting into a large stack with tons of showdown value and risks getting x/r (again). If I flat and lead river it's pretty much the same as 4! turn except we give him a free-ish card that could kill action or let hero win / chop. If I 4! it seems uber strong and I honestly dont think V calls with anything we can beat unless V can somehow convince himself we are bluffing. In your experience what's the best line here against said Villain?
1 - Make a super small 4! to $125 / $150 so he still has $100 behind before I rip it in OTR?
2 - Rip it in and hope he stations it off?
3 - Flat and pray he finds a super thin value bet OTR?
In previous hands like this I've tended to go for the small value raise but after reading similar posts I've seen a lot of "if they were calling that amount, they would call more so you missed value" arguments.
FWIW I'm not at all concerned about AA or AJ. If he played it this way, good for him.